Victoria: Springs fronts/lows September 1st-7th 2009

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Victoria: Springs fronts/lows September 1st-7th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Sun Aug 30, 2009 3:08 pm

Looks like another unsettled week with a low likely to develop south of WA mid week and then slowly move towards Tasmania. Should see showers developing on Wednesday in the west then a few showery days Thur->Mon. Will initially start out quite mild but the low has quite a good cold air field which will cool things off and see snow develop across the alps. Also the possibility of a cold outbreak on the back of the low.

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Re: Victoria: Springs fronts/lows September 1st-7th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sun Aug 30, 2009 5:49 pm

Sounds very promising. I haven't had time to look but I take your words for it.

It was showing a pretty unstable Wednesday night. I think there may be the odd thunderstorm and showery band cross the state if the diurnal range allows.

Fairly fresh winds, but nothing of the past few weeks. Perhaps signs the westerly is relaxing a little??
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Re: Victoria: Springs fronts/lows September 1st-7th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Mon Aug 31, 2009 5:45 am

Not much change on this system - looks like a very messy sequence with a broad area of low pressure near the southeast of OZ from Wednesday onwards. EC and GFS suggest widespread falls - not huge but consistent day after day - and adding up about the ranges and coast in particular. Most active days look like being Thursday and Sunday ATM. Could be a consistent snow producer with fairly cold uppers - 850Ts between 0 and 2C for most of the event.

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Re: Victoria: Springs fronts/lows September 1st-7th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Aug 31, 2009 3:10 pm

Hi DJ,

Latest model runs are out now.

LAPS shows a fairly modest cold front and trough pushing through the early part of Thursday morning with a band of showers or rain, potential for the odd rumble to with some instability as winds shift NW/W. 5-10mm has been shaded in for the region and up to 10-20mm over the SW but more refining needed so may have to wait in a couple of days and the trajectory becomes established of the cold front.

US has got minimal rainfall for later in the week around the Melbourne area but better falls through the north and west perhaps 10-20mm through those areas through the sequence.

EC is pretty marginal for this week with isolated-scattered showers and a front Thurs morning and Friday but generally weak. May see 5mm in Melbourne and a little more about the northern slopes and southwest in the mainly NW/W stream which allows a ridge for the Saturday now. Then a better NW flow and instability for Sunday with patchy rain, more extensive over the northern slopes then further fronts and showers/rain to follow through to the end of the run which holds promise but a way off.

Nice to see the westerly holding on and keeping us in some form of average in the south.
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Re: Victoria: Springs fronts/lows September 1st-7th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Mon Aug 31, 2009 6:03 pm

Latest NOGAPS and UK are pretty similar to EC for Wed/Thur with 5-10mm across a fair bit of Vic. It doesn't look like a particularly wet system, but the showers should hang around for quite a few days. These regular top ups are great for runoff etc.

Sunday also looks OK - EC even suggests the potential for some storms.

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Re: Victoria: Springs fronts/lows September 1st-7th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Tue Sep 01, 2009 4:29 pm

Still looks like a pretty unsettled spell developing late tomorrow and lasting for much of the next week. Not big totals, but persistently showery conditions which should add up.

Latest EC has showers Thur/Friday and then Again Sun through Tues next week (indeed next week has the potential to be very wet as a complex of lows sits near Victoria).

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Re: Victoria: Springs fronts/lows September 1st-7th 2009

Post  AUSSKY on Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:11 pm

Just went to Kyneton and then came back around through Woodend - lots of water lying in the paddocks (surprised at how much was up near Kyneton) - the only dam that hasn't totally filled is the one near the Lancefield Rd on the Calder and that has very large puddles in the top half so it should be filling in the next week from runoff from the mountain, let alone anything else that falls out of the sky.


Last edited by AUSSKY on Tue Sep 01, 2009 8:10 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Victoria: Springs fronts/lows September 1st-7th 2009

Post  floydlove on Tue Sep 01, 2009 8:00 pm

Just wanted to add I received 4mm on Saturday and 3mm from some heavy showers on Monday. Which brings a monthly total of 50mm which is pretty much average. Still only 285mm for the year, which is about 100mm less than this time last year. Every year is less and less, even though I actually received an average month of rainfall this month, kind of concerning. But let's hope we keep getting some average falls or more.

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Re: Victoria: Springs fronts/lows September 1st-7th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Sep 02, 2009 5:31 am

Rain increasing a tad according to latest US and LAPS. Only 5-10mm for just N and E of Melbourne.

Hopefully we can sneak a few mm.
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Re: Victoria: Springs fronts/lows September 1st-7th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Wed Sep 02, 2009 7:21 am

Looks like the best rain with the initial system will be north and south of Victoria. The main low passes to our south while the associated trough is most active to our north.

Anticipate - perhaps - 2-10mm in Ferny Creek for the next couple of days. The weekend into next week looks a bit better, but the models are having a hard time settling down so need to wait a day or two before the situation becomes clearer.

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Re: Victoria: Springs fronts/lows September 1st-7th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Sep 02, 2009 7:25 am

That low that US and EC progs looks weak and I would expect a few showers out of it.
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Re: Victoria: Springs fronts/lows September 1st-7th 2009

Post  Greg Sorenson on Wed Sep 02, 2009 8:45 am

Interesting to see that the models are coming on board for northern vic / sth nsw for possible thunderstorms. BOM are a little cautions on this one, fair enough too.

Sample sounding from Yarrawonga for 4pm tomorrow.
http://soundings.bsch.au.com/skew-t.html?source=ncep&lat=-35.96&lon=146.48&date=2009090306&gribdate=2009090118
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Re: Victoria: Springs fronts/lows September 1st-7th 2009

Post  Mantis on Wed Sep 02, 2009 9:47 am

Hope the trough holds and we get something here. Looking good so far

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Re: Victoria: Springs fronts/lows September 1st-7th 2009

Post  Johnno on Wed Sep 02, 2009 9:53 am

You be lucky to get 5mm out of this one Mantis. Sunday/Monday looks a little more promising perhaps 5-10mm for you.

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Re: Victoria: Springs fronts/lows September 1st-7th 2009

Post  Mantis on Wed Sep 02, 2009 10:16 am

Would be happy with that Johnno Very Happy

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Re: Victoria: Springs fronts/lows September 1st-7th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Sep 02, 2009 4:32 pm

Looks like there is a bit of shower activity already moving over the western border which will continue to move east overnight.

US looks poor for rainfall totals but then again was poor with rainfall estimates for Monday just gone. And looks average for the week too with nothing of interest really happening. A general warming trend too Sad

EC has a bit now with the Sunday system, maybe a few thunderstorms on the change as it crosses through. It has totally dropped the low and that sequence following Sunday and is very shaky in holding any pattern beyond this.

Welcome to spring!!!!
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Re: Victoria: Springs fronts/lows September 1st-7th 2009

Post  AUSSKY on Wed Sep 02, 2009 4:58 pm

Was sitting here in my loungeroom in Trentham just before sunset trying to work out where the Cb was that I could see...decided that it was 370kms away up past Warracknabeal!!!!!
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Re: Victoria: Springs fronts/lows September 1st-7th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Sep 02, 2009 5:20 pm

There was a quite a bit of cj around this afternoon and it is encouraging to see so early in the season!!

You certainly have a fab view from your place there Jane!!

Feel better...hopefully a storm can help your recovery tomorrow Smile
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Re: Victoria: Springs fronts/lows September 1st-7th 2009

Post  DarkEye on Wed Sep 02, 2009 5:31 pm

What should Portland by like overnight Karl if you don't mind my asking?
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Re: Victoria: Springs fronts/lows September 1st-7th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Sep 02, 2009 5:34 pm

Probably just a few showers. A very slim chance of a thunderstorm, but more likely to see a few showers and a better chance of a thunderstorm from late morning as a weak front comes onshore.
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Re: Victoria: Springs fronts/lows September 1st-7th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Wed Sep 02, 2009 5:37 pm

Latest EC suggests that the far southwest and east-central into the northeast might do OK in the next 24 hours. Certainly not big falls but perhaps locally in the 5-10mm range. The initial band won't drop much overnight, but then more will develop during the day across the west and northeast.

Friday then sees more showers with a second trough moving through.

LI look like going negative across much of Vic tomorrow (particularly central and northeastern areas) which suggest good prospects for convection and perhaps the odd storm (worth keeping an eye on the storm chart).

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Re: Victoria: Springs fronts/lows September 1st-7th 2009

Post  mick on Wed Sep 02, 2009 5:46 pm

It was 21 degrees with a northerly blowing this arvo, it could easily have been 30 degrees given a bit of a tweak. Based on recent years, the tap might have been turned off this week.

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Re: Victoria: Springs fronts/lows September 1st-7th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Sep 02, 2009 5:54 pm

Yeah I agree Mick but at the same time tomorrow could really work. We just need the right mix of timing, cloud development and diurnal heating. If we crack 22C it could be quite a doozy.

Wait and see how the morning looks.

A few brief mid level showers could help moisten things up.
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Re: Victoria: Springs fronts/lows September 1st-7th 2009

Post  Dez on Wed Sep 02, 2009 8:03 pm

Wow, I've never seen such a perfect-circular low pressure system on the national radar loop on BOM before. (Sorry, i'm still new to this weather stuff)

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Re: Victoria: Springs fronts/lows September 1st-7th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Wed Sep 02, 2009 8:11 pm

Yeah doesn't look too bad Dez...a lot of this going on lately with all the NW airflows - amazing it has been going on for about the last 4-5 weeks. Last tuesday was similar but coming up from South, probably a tad smaller but more intense and defined. I am hoping this LPS strengthens as it tracks NE and we get another good hit out of it tomorrow night.

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Re: Victoria: Springs fronts/lows September 1st-7th 2009

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