Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

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Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  hillybilly on Mon Sep 07, 2009 5:48 pm

Not exactly what we need but we are shaping up for a significant early spring heatwave late this week into the weekend. Latest EC has 850Ts approaching 20C about NW Vic on the weekend and associated high winds (50+ knots at the 850hPa level). Those conditions will see very high temperatures for the first half of September and have the potential to see 30C plus.

I wouldn't rule out Melbourne's first 30C, though at this stage cloud may cap the temperature a bit.

The source region for this heatwave - NW OZ - has been running at near record highs and low (record hot nights) in recent days including a 40C at Wyndham today.

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Twister on Mon Sep 07, 2009 7:24 pm

Yeah this is looking very interesting and has got my interest.

With this non event atm which I suppose was never going to be great, I don't see much at all tonight or tomorrow shame really this heat will dry much of the state mainly north of the hills, on and south will be fine.

This is Very sad news for those in the NW, will be the final blow for crops in far Nw Vic after such a great late April though July. Hopefully South of Ouyen can still hold on and more rain comes soon, looking at up to 4 days in Nw Vic of 26-32c heat and gusty winds.

Back to the heat looking Very warm, first 30c of the season should go both Saturday and Sunday some where in the state (Friday might get very Close at Mildura, Hopetoun etc) most likely in the NW.

Reckon 26c here Saturday, will be a nice shock to the system, will feel very nice and looking forward to it just a shame lots of rain don't come before and after it.

Looking a very warm Friday-Monday across the state with major cooling not happening till mid week

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  hillybilly on Wed Sep 09, 2009 5:38 am

Is shaping up as a pretty tricky situation for Fri->Sun with a sharp barocline setting up across Vic with 850T near 5C on the southwest border but in the 15-20C range in a band from Mildura to (about) Gabo Island. This will see a ripper NW''ly jet (50knots plus at 850hPa) and is likely to trigger showers/rain - particularly late Saturday into Sunday. This could be quite heavy in parts of the south with GFS and EC suggesting falls to 25mm locally.

Looks to me like Saturday has the potential to be the hottest day across most of the south, with Friday a jump day (could well be 10C hotter than Thursday in places). Sunday all comes down to the timing of the front.

Will dig up records to watch - it strikes me that Melbourne will probably avoid the best of the heat but around the river this has the potential to see early season record heat.

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Sep 09, 2009 10:50 am

Could be quite interesting to see if those showery bands do develop with in that barocline. I hope we can get something to develop in the warmer atmosphere. Hopefully a few mm and some cloud to keep things relatively moist.

Looking at GASP - it has a major front and rainband crossing the state Sun/Mon. So something may be there.

Temps may not be so elevated in the south thanks to cloud cover which is a good thing!!

Though hayfever will be sky high!!!
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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  hillybilly on Wed Sep 09, 2009 11:08 am

Interesting that LAPS now has 5-10mm with the front on Friday night. Not sure I believe it.

BIG jump in temperatures from Thur into Fri - dull with strato cu on Thur clearing to summer like and sunny on Friday. Is going to be a shock! Could well see minima on Friday night which are hotter than the maxima on Thurs in the Dandenongs Shocked

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Re: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Scott Lawrance on Wed Sep 09, 2009 11:42 am

But surely these kind of temps are to be expected for September and are not really heat waves? I remember as a kid at the Melbourne Show it was quite hot at this time of year - mid 20's to 30 is to be expected isn't it?

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Sep 09, 2009 12:41 pm

With such large variations in temps - there could be a local shower or thunderstorm on the convergent wind change later although more likely Saturday. Hmmm it's bizarre weather.

3 consecutive days in the 30s in the north at this time of year is a heatwave!!
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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Anthony Violi on Wed Sep 09, 2009 2:31 pm

Yeah there wont be any heatwave here in the South...be very warm inland but just nice down here.

Rain has made it into the forecast for Sunday..so could yet get some follow up rain.
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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  mick on Wed Sep 09, 2009 3:49 pm

25 in Melb on saturday? It will be 19 or 30, but not 25.

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Sep 09, 2009 4:02 pm

Would you like to elaborate on that theory Mick??

Looking like a 26C to me with a strong N wind - really dependant upon cloud development.
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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  hillybilly on Wed Sep 09, 2009 4:22 pm

EC and GFS are ramping up the rain for Sunday (and EC actually has a bit slipping through on Saturday). Agree Karl - about 26C looks a good bet for Melbourne unless it rains a lot. There will be so much mixing with those winds that we'll get close to dry adiabatic. Would be off to the beach if the wife wasn't 37 weeks pregnant Razz

But surely these kind of temps are to be expected for September and are not really heat waves?

Not this early. The numbers we expecting are close to early season records (though even so - isn't 40C in summer a heatwave - even if its expected). The area to watch in the about the river. Also watch for possible September record high minimums (our internal guidance suggests temperatures within a couple of degrees of a record).

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Power Storm on Wed Sep 09, 2009 4:47 pm

Yeah it is looking like a warm period coming up, but I am more interested in the records that may fall, and even mroe interested in the convergence that could get a thunderstorm going which Karl mentioned above. There is a chance alright, will have to keep a watch on the charts.

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  norfolk on Wed Sep 09, 2009 5:30 pm

I am saying no more than 23, just can not see it any warmer after today's cold!

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  hillybilly on Wed Sep 09, 2009 5:47 pm

Here's the daily records for Melbourne (Sept 1->12)
High 25.5 25.3 25.3 26.1 26.8 26.8 26.4 26.7 26.1 25.1 26.7 24.9
and Mildura
High 31.4 30.1 29.1 29.5 30.0 28.5 29.5 32.0 26.9 30.5 32.2 28.6

I would be surprised to see the early Melbourne record go but Mildura must be a chance.

BTW looks like Sunday's front is speeding up with rain into central areas during the morning. Could be a 15C 25C 25C 15C sequence in Melbourne if the timings right. That will confuse people!

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Sep 09, 2009 6:20 pm

Yes Jake - keep an eye out as that front slips over the Western areas late Friday, just with a little bit more cold air aloft and the diurnal range being quite high, it could kick off something fairly late though isolated.

DJ, hopefully all goes well with the arrival of your second, perhaps sooner rather than later as we head into warmer weather. How exciting!! Another climatologist on the way Wink
Norf - I would love it not to be the case but the numbers and isobaric flow suggest 25-30C for much of the state, I would love it not to be and there is a chance that it may not get there - dependant upon cloud - I think with the threat of rain - 23C may be a realistic option come tomorrow.

Certainly looks rainy and a bit thundery through the eastern half of the state come Sunday with 10-20mm a good bet through the east moreso.

15,25,25,15 is just making me plain sick. And add hayfever to the mix, my voice is going to be gone when I am up at Tatra Receptions at Mt Dandenong on Saturday!! Should be a little breezy Wink
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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  I_Love_Storms on Wed Sep 09, 2009 6:22 pm

norfolk wrote:I am saying no more than 23, just can not see it any warmer after today's cold!

I think we will get higher than 23. If you look at the sat image you will see why. I think the humidity will be lower than expected on Saturday as well, which will help it warm up.

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  droughtbreaker on Wed Sep 09, 2009 6:32 pm

Well, it's that time of year again when the weather starts to get really volatile. Big spikes in temp in very short periods of time and then equally big drops in temp soon afterwards with sudden bursts of rain and/or storms and then up again and on it goes. All part of living on the boundary of hot desert air (the centre of Australia is warming very rapidly at this time of year) and cold southern ocean air. Chuck in some gusty and squally winds and you get Spring in VIC.

Yes, 26C if it comes off is up there with the warmest temps recorded this early in the season but with that extra degree of global warming and the never ending pattern of no significant southerlies that has continued for months unbroken it is to be expected these days. I don't think 26C will be a real 'shock' so to speak, it was only a week ago that we had a 22C day in Melbourne. It is pretty much just a pleasantly warm day. The blustery and relatively dry wind will be a shock though and between that and all the wattle pollen blowing through the air hay fever will be an issue with some people.

Looking forward to some more rain on the weekend to keep the exceptionally good run we have had here since the start of July going and offset some of the damage of a dry warm day. (It will only be low 20s here though on Saturday Razz )

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  hillybilly on Thu Sep 10, 2009 5:31 am

Looking at the latest LAPS I reckon 26C could be a bit low on Sunday for Melbourne. LAPS has 1000hPa Ts at 4pm of 25C which would usually suggest a max around 26 to 28C. Mildura looks seriously hot with 1000hPa Ts of 30C which would suggest something around 31-33C.

If we don't get early season records we will get very close. Only thing that will stop it is a lot of cloud.

Sunday still looks like bring a healthy rain band.

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Sep 10, 2009 5:45 am

I was about to type the same thing re: Sunday. I think this will increase our storm chances.

I think 29C Sunday with the rain not making it till late. Could be a very warm night Saturday.
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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  hillybilly on Thu Sep 10, 2009 6:46 am

I think 29C Sunday with the rain not making it till late.

Karl EC has the rain into Melbourne by 4am on Sunday and >5mm by 10am. I can't really see Sunday being warm across the south (apart from the east).

Also amazing 850Ts across the north - near 20C on Saturday night over Mildura. In mid summer those temperatures would see near 40C at the surface - I don't imagine we have ever seen such a hot air mass so early in spring Rolling Eyes

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Sep 10, 2009 7:39 am

Well that makes me happy then. Hopefully there can be some modest totals.

That also means the storms will be restricted to the east. Could be a good event out there.
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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  floydlove on Thu Sep 10, 2009 12:23 pm

I reckon it will be quite a shock tomorrow, if it makes 23C, as it's quite cold today. Only hovering around 13-14C. Not looking forward to the winds tomorrow and the weekend. Sad Hopefully some surprising falls on Sunday.

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Sep 10, 2009 3:35 pm

Well there seems to be a consensus in bringing a band of rain and isolated thunderstorm activity across the state, although more patchy in the northwest. Could see falls widespread of 5-15mm but heavier falls into the C and E areas, especially on and south of the divide. Good follow up opportunity.

Could be some decent storm activity in the far east too. Have to see what the latest stormcast charts have for the weekend when things come into play.

Looking beyond there is a few troughy, thundery events possible beyond this so nice to have consistent productive weather about still with increasing temps.
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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  norfolk on Thu Sep 10, 2009 3:40 pm

hmmmm but will the temps increase that much? I am now really thinking that Saturday will be somewhere between 20-23, cloudy skies and a very gusty wind. Not really what most people are expecting!

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  hillybilly on Thu Sep 10, 2009 4:14 pm

I suspect people will be in for a shock tomorrow. There is a massive warm-up of airmass the next 12 hours and I would not be surprised to see 25's through parts of the Melbourne metro area.

EC has thrown up a curve ball for Saturday morning - a period of rain - with ~7mm forecast for Melbourne. Could cap the temperature for us??

Further north it is going to be very hot for early September.

The rainband for Sunday still looks very healthy. Might be a day for watching TV Very Happy

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