Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Weird.. very strange.. firstly collingwood won. next woken to 24.4 deg @ midnight. 23 the house.

Still 20 degrees at 3.25am. Wind has dropped off, very calm but still very balmy for September. Please let it rain today!!!

Just had 10 minutes of heavy rain - peak rainfall rate of 55mm/hr and 2mm in quick time. Sounded really good until I looked at the radar a saw the "rain band" was 10km wide

I'm now seriously confused by this system - we were meant to see a significant rain band last a few hours and lots of places are yet to trouble the scorer

This system looks a feels like a summer event and yet we are hardly past winter.

Had 0.2mm here with a rain rate of nothing.....currently 10.8C - gloomy on the back end of the line of showers....but doesn't look like it's threatening anything

ETA and in saying that we now have a shower going through! (all 30 seconds of it)

yep, this morning does have a summer feel to it, 16 degrees at 8 am is definately a summer morning. And as we all know as the temps wont be revised, today's max will be the 26.0 at midnight won't it?

1mm here, and yes looked at the radar with great dissapiontment also.

Hi all.
An upside down day here in Trentham the max so far is 20.2c at 1202am and the min 10.6 at 0910. Presently 11c. Moisture has build rapidly overnight after some spectacular minus dp's yesterday. Max yesterday 23.4c. A few spots this morning as the pathetic rainband rolled through. regards Clyve H.

Well it was a very mild night until the change went through, and then intermittent rain. Only 3.4mm to 9am, but that's enough down here since the local flooding. Still very wet lands, though some sun will make things very very green. I am hopeing though that everyone gets some good rainfall over the coming week... Thursday is looking good in particular.

Anyway, we should see showers redevelop over the southwest this afternoon as the next front moves through. There is again the chance for some thunderstorms to develop as well.

Less than 1mm here, so a bit disappointing, only 16mm's for the month to date so we are really struggling the September average is 86mm's and not much rain this week it seems.

Well, currently 13 degrees and we have had 3mm of rain this mornings. I am a bit surprised at our temps compared to Trentham considering the elevation as it was 18.5 when I turned in last night (did not set the min/max though doh!). I have a feling this is the having a creek at the bottom of the street affect as it also feels cooler on hot days where we are compared to the top of the road near the cemetary.

Its about 20 here, light rain on and off, just enough to make tings slippery. Kinda gloomy to yesterdays nice sunshine.

no rain overnight and its a nice sunny day outside

Well it goes down as one of the more bizarre weather systems I can remember. And it is not over yet.

I suspect that today could go two ways, with a little patchy rain about, or a good storm outbreak. I think we will learn more over the coming 2hrs but I wouldn't be surprised with a few storms about the Melbourne area.

Showers should increase for a period tonight as a colder westerly develops and we return to a normal weather regime.

About 3mm here for the system, a far cry from what the models have said, however could make up for it with some showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Just had another shower with raindrops the size of 50c pieces.

What a joke gets worse everytime.. I did say to Karl as a joke the other day If Laps is progging 20-30mm just divide that by 10 but who would of thought I would actually be right. I'm over it seriously I give up guys makes you lose interest seeing this happen time in time out neally all the time these days.

keep an eye on the west of the state too...mid level temperatures have started to drop and there is adequate moisture...

Ok guys, things looking good for thunderstorms IMO. I will get the storm chart out soon from the BoM. Also, some real good convection beginning to form to my west/southwest atm... next front moving in, some lightning activity already about. Its also unstable about the east today so perhaps some mid-level thunderstorms developing this afternoon.

Up to 3.6mm of rain up here and getting the odd spell of big drops. Very strange - obviously high based convection moving really quickly. The radar is very curious - and with a solid cold pool moving up to our west one gets the feeling this really has potential.

There is a huge split on the progs. GFS has 25mm for us today while LAPS has ~1mm Guess we will fall somewhere in between

Particularly given we have some clearance about as well...it has plenty of potential but can that translate into some good activity?

Well, LAPS is a bit of a joke at times, taking overnight and this morning as a case in point so perhaps that's a good sign that it is not picking up any rain.

Agree things are looking interesting but late yesterday it looked interesting as well and what did we get? Nothing!

Nothing much happening here atm, looks like mostly SCu or very weak and ragged Cu. Conditions are very mild, around 13C indicating there is still some decent thermal gradient before the cold pool moves in later. Most importantly it is humid today. Looks like the approaching front/trough that carries the cold air with it is forming a nice little band extending right back to Adelaide. By the looks of things all the rain is in the Sw of the state atm and around Adelaide but when it hits us late in the day things could get very interesting with the cold air boundary meeting a humid environment.

Well, it's looking very ordinary now. Not impressed to see all the showers confined to the SW corner and not extending northwards about the cloudband, this basically rules out anything decent inland from the coast. An absolute fizzer of epic proportions. Good thing we have at least two more upcoming systems this week that the models are excited about but they could well turn out fizzers too.

Bad news with more extreme heat preceding future cold fronts next week, I can see at least two more 30C+ days for Melbourne in the outlook.

Well winter's returned for me as I've had rain, wind and maybe even a flash or two happen this arvo, I feel sorry for you guys missing out.

droughtbreaker wrote:Bad news with more extreme heat preceding future cold fronts next week, I can see at least two more 30C+ days for Melbourne in the outlook.

What dates do you expect the extreme heat days to fall on? And by 30+ are you thinking 27-33 or even hotter?

hillybilly wrote:Up to 3.6mm of rain up here and getting the odd spell of big drops. Very strange - obviously high based convection moving really quickly. The radar is very curious - and with a solid cold pool moving up to our west one gets the feeling this really has potential.

There is a huge split on the progs. GFS has 25mm for us today while LAPS has ~1mm Guess we will fall somewhere in between

2mm perhaps DJ? Basically I find whatever model is progging the least rain it will be right so my odds are on Laps. Taking models out of it everything is sliding SE now the trough, the front even the high behind it so expect very little to nothing now for Central Vic and Melbourne for the rest of this system.

droughtbreaker wrote:...

Bad news with more extreme heat preceding future cold fronts next week, I can see at least two more 30C+ days for Melbourne in the outlook.

I can tolerate this is sort of heat, if we get a 'violent' cool change meaning a severe Thunderstorm, of which no one gets hurt. I apologise for the use of 'violent'.

Wednesday is our next chance but I'm going to say somewhere between 25 to 29c still not going to say 30c but I'm sure few of the other guys in here might think it will get to 30c Wednesday.

Sunny here now clouds are gradually all dissapearing