Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  I_Love_Storms on Sun Sep 13, 2009 1:52 pm

What is the likelihood of that band intensifying as it tracks eastward? It will be crossing through relatively warm, humid air won't it not?

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Johnno on Sun Sep 13, 2009 1:56 pm

20% chance, I think it will dive SE but hey I could be wrong

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Power Storm on Sun Sep 13, 2009 2:00 pm

Heavy showers moving through here now and even had a crack of thunder. I did not see the lightning though. It's horrible for me cause I have to milk tonight..... Sad But the winds are gale force here, around 35-40 knots i'd say.

Just heard on the news that the train I was suppose to be on derailed last night, 3 people were injured and a lot of the carriages have been tipped over, it's quite a shocking scene. Luckily for me, I was moved to do work experience last week. Lucky me huh....

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  norfolk on Sun Sep 13, 2009 2:33 pm

wow Jake, talk about being lucky!

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Sep 13, 2009 2:47 pm

Models suggest about 25C-29C on Wednesday but the thing is yesterday the models were indicating around 25C-27C in Melbourne and it made it to 30C (29.9C is 30C in my book Laughing ). Going by that you can add at least 3C to anything the models are progging in terms of heat. Two rules now for interpreting the models for VIC, divide the progged rainfall by 10 and add 3C-5C to the progged heatwaves. Evil or Very Mad Crying or Very sad Rolling Eyes

I would say the reason that today's system was such a spectacular failure had to do with yesterday's air mass being much drier and hotter than the models were predicting. Yesterday was pretty much off the chart compared to anything we'd ever experienced before at this time of year and the models got fooled. Today, while fairly humid and around 10C cooler than yesterday, it' s just not humid enough, and the thermal gradient has ended up rather pathetic in the end with quite a gradual transition between the warmth and cold air. The cold air still isn't through and we are 24hrs from the peak of yesterday's heat. It has been a slow transition from NW to W to eventually W/SW. Very summer like indeed.

What we needed was a sharp line between the peak of the heat and the cold air pool and moisture. That's what delivers multicell lines, rain bands, etc. Just not happening yet.


Last edited by droughtbreaker on Sun Sep 13, 2009 2:55 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  hillybilly on Sun Sep 13, 2009 2:53 pm

Now stuck of 3.7mm for this "event". About a third of what I was expecting Crying or Very sad

Is a few decent showers to our west but the system is sliding south so don't expect more than a mm or two. The one near Dartmoor actually looks quite severe.

Wednesday to me looks 3-5C cooler than Saturday - the 850T are about 5C cooler. Still 25C (give or take) in the first half of September would have once only happened every 20 years so that's an extreme number anyway. Time for a new thread for that one... (which might also bring a bit of rain).

PS Any farmers on here care to comment about the impact of the heat on crops?

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  firestorm on Sun Sep 13, 2009 2:55 pm

its rainning here and the Westerly wind is having a fair crack outside atm! Its cooled quiet abit too.

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Sep 13, 2009 3:02 pm

Next Saturday, pencil in 30C for Melbourne or maybe even a bit higher. I know it's a week out but it looks a certainty to me. At this stage there will also be a ripper of a storm band and cold change with it but expect that one to downgrade as well. Mad

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  firestorm on Sun Sep 13, 2009 3:46 pm

1mm so far looking like one more shower burst then its will be mainly over.

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  AUSSKY on Sun Sep 13, 2009 4:27 pm

droughtbreaker wrote:Next Saturday, pencil in 30C for Melbourne or maybe even a bit higher. I know it's a week out but it looks a certainty to me. At this stage there will also be a ripper of a storm band and cold change with it but expect that one to downgrade as well. Mad

can everyone please pray for something cooler - Tango's got the breed championship show at KCC Park on Sth Gippy Highway from 12pm and he's like a slug in temperatures like that - can you please work on about 22C - just for Saturday......
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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  floydlove on Sun Sep 13, 2009 4:51 pm

Kinda gusty out there, though that's the normal these days with all these wind events of late. Temperature dropped in quick time from 19C to 16C within half an hour. At least it's nice and cool.

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Twister on Sun Sep 13, 2009 7:50 pm

Same story different year.
While this year we are getting system after system, they are very dry, windy, warm and dusty.
Every September and October are the same last 4 years these months bring lots of warmth and wind and little rain and this year is looking the same.

Wednesday will be the same as the system gone, but tad more rain and less wind and heat.
Weekend system will be repeat of weekend just gone then we only have 10 days of the month left

Lets just hope we get the massive November and December rains like we have the last 4 years

Need another 16mm here for this month to not be the driest on record

Spare thought for the north with 20s and odd 30 next week, and in the many weeks to come and sadly with VERY little rain Sad

0.5mm here for the system

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Power Storm on Sun Sep 13, 2009 8:45 pm

Twister wrote:Lets just hope we get the massive November and December rains like we have the last 4 years

The only thing about getting good rains during this time is that it causes fuel to significantly grow for fires, particularly if we get a big event and then no rain after that.

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Bobman on Sun Sep 13, 2009 9:46 pm

If the rains fall around Melbourne and where the dams are, then it's only good news.

On another note, have any of you guys and girls seen the BOM radar and the small patch of rain around Laverton that seems to have not moved for the last few days? Obviously some fault or something.

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  hillybilly on Mon Sep 14, 2009 5:22 am

Only a trace last night from the "cold pool" showers. So a disappointing ~4mm for the event. One crazy weekend - hopefully we don't get too many more like it.

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  windyrob on Mon Sep 14, 2009 5:36 am

Storms in central aus already two days out from the next system. That usually a good sign for moisture!
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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Melbourne Skywalker on Mon Sep 14, 2009 7:04 am

Unfortunately like most places not a drop of rain fell in my area over the weekend. The only thing worth mentioning was the heat on Saturday. It certainly is a real concern now & the weekend was a real indication of what is ahead. One thing that amazes me is despite the dry conditions we still get ambushed by weeds in the front yard! Nothing else grows but these things certainly do. Mad

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  I_Love_Storms on Mon Sep 14, 2009 9:55 am

I'm looking out the window and see glaciating cauliflower clouds...humidity in some places is as high as 70%. It was supposed to be stable today, am I getting carried away thinking of storms?

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Johnno on Mon Sep 14, 2009 9:59 am

I know you love your storms mate but not even a slim chance today bascially 0%. The clouds will largely dissapate by 4pm

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Madmel on Mon Sep 14, 2009 10:44 am

Can agree there..the heat was the only major thing to report on the weekend. Was warm over Sunday night, but around 10am we did get some light rain for about 30mins which was refreshing to say the least.

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  firestorm on Mon Sep 14, 2009 10:48 am

1.8mm overnight. Very nice day to be outside down here today though!

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Power Storm on Mon Sep 14, 2009 4:46 pm

5mm to 9am this morning, a nice little fall of rain. Wink

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  hillybilly on Mon Sep 14, 2009 6:09 pm

To close out this event we now have a frost warning - http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV23000.shtml . The airmass is not particularly cold but it is very dry so temperatures drop like a rock.

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Sep 14, 2009 6:29 pm

Had to get the warm water onto the car windscreen this morning, minimum was 1.4C.

7C atm and still cloudy out there for now.

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Johnno on Tue Sep 15, 2009 8:17 am

AUSSKY wrote:
droughtbreaker wrote:Next Saturday, pencil in 30C for Melbourne or maybe even a bit higher. I know it's a week out but it looks a certainty to me. At this stage there will also be a ripper of a storm band and cold change with it but expect that one to downgrade as well. Mad

can everyone please pray for something cooler - Tango's got the breed championship show at KCC Park on Sth Gippy Highway from 12pm and he's like a slug in temperatures like that - can you please work on about 22C - just for Saturday......

22c looks about right at the moment Jane for Saturday mabye even a touch cooler progs have changed a great deal for Saturday since Andrew wrote that post and can still change between now and then but we are starting to get some idea which way its leaning 4 days out

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