Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  floydlove on Sat Sep 12, 2009 11:56 am

27C in Melbourne, that shot up fast. The power of the northerly winds eh? Wink

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sat Sep 12, 2009 12:00 pm

May nudge the elusive 30C!!!

Very windy currently up high at Mt Dandenong. 105kmh so far.
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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Sniper on Sat Sep 12, 2009 12:10 pm

Touching 34 at Hopetoun and 33 at Mildura with stronger winds than yesterday. Winds really picking up here...

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Sniper on Sat Sep 12, 2009 12:14 pm

Humidity levels down to 3% in the Mallee and 8% at Bendigo.

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  I_Love_Storms on Sat Sep 12, 2009 12:14 pm

The BOM have really stuffed this forecast up, 25, then 27, then back to 24, now it is 27.5.

They upgraded then downgraded their wind forecasts as well, now it looks though the winds may be higher than even the initial upgraded forecasts.

Looks as though the change is still a way away, might just miss 30 due to a cloud build-up. 29 is probably a safer bet at this stage.

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  norfolk on Sat Sep 12, 2009 12:24 pm

I'd be looking at Avalon to reach 30 today now. Totally unexpected because I thought it would only be 25 there with a 23 or 24 in the city. Yes I thought more cloud today as well, goes to show that no matter what people(or models) think and predict, mother nature will have her way!

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  I_Love_Storms on Sat Sep 12, 2009 12:27 pm

It's great, the higher temps may produce some good storms later.

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  I_Love_Storms on Sat Sep 12, 2009 12:39 pm

I eat my words, it is 29 already!!!! And how fast it got there!

Melb humidity fixed, 10%.

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  DC449 on Sat Sep 12, 2009 12:49 pm

Storms a long shot tonight?
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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  I_Love_Storms on Sat Sep 12, 2009 12:50 pm

I think they are likely. When the cloud comes in the DPs will rise and there will be enough mid-level instability to spark some decent cells I would think.

Similar to last Thursday, but more heat this time.

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Dane on Sat Sep 12, 2009 1:00 pm

Yeah a real hot one for the first half of September, around 29c in the City now that must be close to a record for the first half of the month. A shower or storm is possible later. Very windy here in Cranny with the wind gusting over 30 knots at times. its 26.4c here now and that's the highest it reached so far.

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  I_Love_Storms on Sat Sep 12, 2009 1:08 pm

mick wrote:25 in Melb on saturday? It will be 19 or 30, but not 25.

Good stuff mate...haha you hit the nail on the head.

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Nick Sykes on Sat Sep 12, 2009 1:10 pm

Resting in the carlton gardens after going to museum. Very warm and windy, filtered sun here with a bit alto cumulus. Think will struggle for 30 now.

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Bobman on Sat Sep 12, 2009 1:14 pm

29.6 in Avalon and 28 where I am in Moorabbin.

A very small rain band moving from the north west.

I can't believe Weather.com.au had 10mm forecast for tomorrow, then 6mm and now it's just 1mm. They're "predictions" are very often way-off. Shame that all this rain isn't coming now.

Bit of a worry with these temps so early in September, what do the sceptics think now? Smile

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Nick Sykes on Sat Sep 12, 2009 1:24 pm

Sun just about to come out in city, this could be the 30 chance. Nice way to spend sat afternoon, under tree watching records fall Smile

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  droughtbreaker on Sat Sep 12, 2009 1:28 pm

I'd suggest the very warm air has come in earlier than the models suggested. The temps in southern VIC atm are indicative of 15C 850T which was always going to be the max of hot air coming through but it was supposed to come in overnight but has obviously come in now. Throw in much drier conditions than progged and a resulting lack of cloud and you have the absolute max surface temps possible for the setup. Any storms today will be dry, perhaps overnight when humid air moves in we could get some decent development but BOm thunderstorm chart that Jake posted earlier suggests otherwise. Approaching 25C here which is nasty.\

What is most disturbing about this is that the conditions are now suitable for record heat every year. With normal climate variation, even taking into account global warming etc., we shouldn't be breaking early season heat records almost every year.

More research has to be done as to why we have not had any 'proper' southerlies since the start of winter and why the LWT has been peaking to our west for months on end. With climate change here we are supposed to be seeing cold fronts slipping south and high pressure dominance (which I admit is the worst outcome). We haven't seen that the last two months, we have had regular cold fronts here with rain but the N/NW turns W and maybe W/SW and that's it, back to NW again. Amazingly I don't remember one major high pressure system over us which normally allows cool air to stagnate over us after a change comes through. It has been constant westerlies the whole time.

Basically what I'm saying is if you get constant NW airflow through winter the continent never gets a chance to cool down as it should and we get blasted straight back into summer again at the first hint of spring, (days lengthening, more direct sun etc.)

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Johnno on Sat Sep 12, 2009 1:38 pm

Still a chance to crack 30c in Melbourne.. The airport is 29.4c and usually in these set ups its a degree cooler than the CBD in these strong N wind days so alot of warm air even just north of the city. Speaking of the wind though it has eased off now fair bit over the past 40 mins and expect some sort of risk of middle based storms later. If we crack 30c would have to be the earliest ever in Melbourne for September and Spring or not??

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  droughtbreaker on Sat Sep 12, 2009 1:41 pm

Yes, by a full week John. The previous earliest was on the 19th September 2006. Tells you a lot about climate change when records of that significance only last 2 years. Crying or Very sad (assuming Melbourne does make it, touch and go atm).

Big bank of middle level cloud coming in from the west now about 3hrs too late to prevent the extreme warmth.

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Johnno on Sat Sep 12, 2009 1:44 pm

Yeah Andrew not sure if it is climate change though .. Don't the experts say that due to climate change fronts are suppose to eb weaker in SW WA as well and have been since the 70's?? Its not whats been happening this year far from it so might be a climate variation as Blair Trewin suggested a week or 2 ago. I'm not sure whats going on Andrew to be honest but whatever it is it is most disturbing that this keeps happening

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Johnno on Sat Sep 12, 2009 1:48 pm

30.1c now at the Airport well well well given this has happend the city should crack 30c considering the airport is almost 100 metres higher above sea level than the city just shows how warm it is still North of the city

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  dagget on Sat Sep 12, 2009 2:01 pm

23 degrees for us here with a NW wind, quite nice to have a bit of sun for a day but hope the rain eventuates.

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  I_Love_Storms on Sat Sep 12, 2009 2:14 pm

When is the cool change expected to come through the city?

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  droughtbreaker on Sat Sep 12, 2009 2:16 pm

BOM forecasts now are pretty much as bad as they have ever been. I remember much more accurate temperature forecasts 15-20 years ago.

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Jase72 on Sat Sep 12, 2009 2:18 pm

31.6c where i am this is mad so early in the season

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Re: Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

Post  Madmel on Sat Sep 12, 2009 2:19 pm

Well didnt expected to get this warm for early Spring!! Sitting on about 30 out here

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