Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sat Sep 19, 2009 2:38 pm

Plenty of convection about so it is certainly not over. Lots of highcloud about so this suggests numerous redevelopment phases within the diurnal cycle today so it could reform one more time.

Nice tops to the NE around the Warburton region with pileus.

8C drop at Cerebus with 3mm of rain in quick time and should clock up about 5-10mm there and similar for Phillip Island at this time. Not much wind with it. About 30-35 knots which is about par in these situations.

I think the main area of thunderstorms is now in that Ballarat region.
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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Sat Sep 19, 2009 2:41 pm

Down near Rosebud wow, it really intensified

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Sat Sep 19, 2009 2:43 pm

Looks similar to when Lilydale got hit last time, but more Westerly and less chance of cell convergence from N to S.

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Melbourne Skywalker on Sat Sep 19, 2009 2:51 pm

Karl Lijnders wrote:Could split up for a period over the western suburbs but should develop over the east again from where DJ speculates.

I really hope your wrong karl, we are long overdue for a decent storm out this way.

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  norfolk on Sat Sep 19, 2009 2:52 pm

wow did the You Yangs, split that rain band? Some very interesting looking clouds out there at the moment, but the radar just looks like it is moving down away from here, and the band around Ballarat I think may ead towards the Macedon Ranges.

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Sat Sep 19, 2009 2:54 pm

Ballarat cells seems to be weakening....will this be a non-event due to lack of warmth from now onwards?

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Sebastian on Sat Sep 19, 2009 2:54 pm

Rumbles a-plenty here in Ballan, and becoming increasingly dark. Not that I am complaining Smile

Took some tasty pics of the approaching line. Shall upload tonight and spread the love!

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sat Sep 19, 2009 2:56 pm

Hi there Sebastian...enjoy the weather mate!!

I think it will be a non event in Melbourne but around the region there is some fairly good results, to the NW and SE but still some time.

Warmth not the issue ILS.
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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sat Sep 19, 2009 2:59 pm

Just had a look again out there and plenty of knuckles across the western and southwestern sky so it is regenerating!! Very odd sky out there..

Could be reforming quickly!

Seems to be developing along the wind change at the moment. Winds still yet to shift here. Development seems to be rapid north along the line between Ballarat to Paky.


Last edited by Karl Lijnders on Sat Sep 19, 2009 3:01 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  norfolk on Sat Sep 19, 2009 3:01 pm

wow wind has just begun to blow quite strongly now here, just now waiting for the shower Smile

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Sebastian on Sat Sep 19, 2009 3:03 pm

Cheers Karl! I do hope everyone East of my locality has some sort of interesting weather arvo.

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Melbourne Skywalker on Sat Sep 19, 2009 3:07 pm

It's getting quite dark outside as that cell from ballarat approaches but is definately weakening.

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Bobman on Sat Sep 19, 2009 3:14 pm

Sky was dark and just lit up now in Moorabbin, however only an isolated shower band passing through.

Looks like Bacchus Marsh and Pakenham are getting some heavy falls.

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sat Sep 19, 2009 3:23 pm

Should form a line in the clear slot between Ballarat to Paky. I cannot beleive the depth of roll cloud as it came through here, almost a shelf cloud. Pics to follow.

Looking more likely now for showers and thunder.
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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  rikjpool on Sat Sep 19, 2009 3:26 pm

Sone nice Cj's going up and CB's starting to grow nicely now all around me to my northeast, and south west, but a huge clear slot right over us. haha.
Well take some nice pics for me guys and girls. Im expectng a couple of sparkies on sunset. Smile
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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Dane on Sat Sep 19, 2009 3:26 pm

The line suddenly intensified just as it past over here got fairly heavy for a few minutes, no thunder that I heard. Had around 3mm's, here and the temps dropped from around 19c at 5pm to just 13c now. http://cranny.bigpondhosting.com/

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Johnno on Sat Sep 19, 2009 3:28 pm

Seems to be holding up ok as it approaches this area may get a couple of mm's with any luck

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Sniper on Sat Sep 19, 2009 3:29 pm

Gone very dark now and the wind has quickly picked up.
Will be happy with one rumble.

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  norfolk on Sat Sep 19, 2009 3:32 pm

a cell seems to have developed to the west of melton. Clouds look impressive as they have for a while now, but only now has it started to drizzle. But I expect something nice in the next half an hour.
And now it's getting slightly heavier Smile

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Lily on Sat Sep 19, 2009 3:35 pm

Been out the front and had a look towards Cranbourne/Pakenham, black as black in that direction. It's got progressively darker here in the last 20 or so minutes and just waiting to see if that cell in the Oakleigh area makes it here or skirts just past us. We've had one or two drops of rain, but nothing as yet, just gone very calm here. My ten year old son is enjoying running around from front to back of the house and watching the clouds move rapidly over us - I'm training him well Smile

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Melbourne Skywalker on Sat Sep 19, 2009 3:36 pm

A few drops starting to fall here, if that cell holds it's line and intensity we might be in for some action Norfolk.

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sat Sep 19, 2009 3:46 pm

Starting to get a few massive drops here so the line is starting to take shape. About 2-5mm across the region over coming 2 hours and then fine tonight.

Chance of showers and a storm tomorrow afternoon too.
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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  typhoon29 on Sat Sep 19, 2009 3:51 pm

well that was a hmm intersting storm. Looked impressive but was rather benign. Lightning was few and far between. Total rain for today 6mm. The temp peaked before storm at 18 and fell to 12 after. No wind to speak of.
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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Sebastian on Sat Sep 19, 2009 3:55 pm

Hope this works .....

It was looking rather Shelf-like to me, when I took this picture upon approach Smile


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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sat Sep 19, 2009 3:58 pm

GFS has LI upwards of +8 tomorrow so I'm not sure where the storms are coming from there unless that model is grossly wrong.

Some interesting development very close to the S and SW but it's generally weakening here and won't make it.

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

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