Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Sep 16, 2009 6:40 am

EC had protracted rainfall in the two previous events and never eventuated. With horrible dry low levels and a northerly I suspect half of that rainfall not to reach the ground.

Will have to wait and see on this one.
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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Sniper on Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:23 am

18Z GFS pointing to max 25mm for Central/Metro over the next 48hrs. Lets just aim for 5mm and anything more will be a bonus.

Speaking of GFS, it is going bonkers in the longer term. Loopy IMO!!

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:49 am

It's about 20 degrees in the city already. Crazy

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Sep 16, 2009 9:13 am

UK and JMA at one point had up to 25mm for us here. Beyond that it's going nuts - not completely unfounded however.

Rain already along the border.
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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Mantis on Wed Sep 16, 2009 9:32 am

It looks to be fizzling out as it approachs again Sad

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Wed Sep 16, 2009 9:40 am

Looks like we are likely to see isolated thunderstorms develop over southwestern Victoria this afternoon with the initial patchy rainfall preceding the trough. Rain areas will increase tonight nearer the trough and frontal system, as well as storms.

Very warm fresh northwesterly winds here and seems to be humid as well, so that should help things along.

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Wed Sep 16, 2009 9:57 am

21.2 here, great lawn mowing weather, fingers crossed on that rain.
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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Wed Sep 16, 2009 10:16 am

Big difference from last weekend with the wind being actually cool. No cloud yet but sat loop shows we will probably have cloud moving in by mid/late avro. Not sounding too flash for big totals but we can only hope and wish for a thinderstorm imbedded in the cloudband.

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Mantis on Wed Sep 16, 2009 1:19 pm

I expect a few light showers tonight but thats all. The radar is showing it breaking up before it gets here

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  floydlove on Wed Sep 16, 2009 2:07 pm

Such a nice day today, no howling wind, a good temperature. Very manageable indeed. Hmm, going to be interesting to see what tomorrow brings. I can see everyone is wary due to previous systems and not really backing anything.

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Wed Sep 16, 2009 2:57 pm

Well I lied above the thunderstorms... Things were just way too dry in the layers. I think it was Andrew who said this earlier, and I knew it too, but of course when there is a chance for a storm I go birzirk in forecasting them, lol. Good old storms... Wink But, there is the chance overnight of something embedded in the rain, and also tomorrow morning from the west.

Early next week is looking real good for storms at this stage. Talk some more later, on to h/w....

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Bobman on Wed Sep 16, 2009 3:01 pm

Lol. Thunder storms in Melbourne? Haven't seen anything decent since December 20, 2007.

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Wed Sep 16, 2009 3:06 pm

I guess the thing to note is the lack of gales with this system...i suppose the worry now is that the cloud band will break up as it edges Eastwards..and of course slides SE and gives the Bellarine Peninsula plenty..

Looking good for a few 5-10mm falls about the Central areas..
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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Wed Sep 16, 2009 3:08 pm

Bobman wrote:Lol. Thunder storms in Melbourne? Haven't seen anything decent since December 20, 2007.

If you were in Lilydale a few weeks ago you wouldn't be saying that. We had approx 140-150 kph winds and whole roads torn to pieces.

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Bobman on Wed Sep 16, 2009 3:13 pm

I_Love_Storms wrote:If you were in Lilydale a few weeks ago you wouldn't be saying that. We had approx 140-150 kph winds and whole roads torn to pieces.

I know those winds a couple of weeks ago. I live in Moorabbin and this area gets battered by winds all the time, but I was more talking about thunder and lightning, such that lasts for more than 5 minutes. It's something that we used to see all the time in the 1990s (especially in Summer), but it doesn't happen much these days.

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Sep 16, 2009 3:14 pm

No thunderstorms at all in this sequence for Melbourne at this time.

Next week looks more favourable with colder air and more instability and better moisture profile.

Looking OK for 5-10mm across Melbourne at this time, but have to see it first to really beleive it.

Some virga about already.
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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Johnno on Wed Sep 16, 2009 3:25 pm

I'm with Karl 5-10mm tomorrow perhaps for Central Vic and Melbourne. Cloud cover looks okay out there winds haven't been strong as Anthony suggested. Ranges will fair best out of this system perhaps 10-30mm stretching from the Grampians to the NE ranges. 5mm or so for most others.

Dare I say it next week looks like a beauty with some follow up falls especially inland Victoria and ranges but still quite a few days out for that one. Mabye just mabye a decent September for Victoria for once? After 3 shockers in a row. Lets hope and Pray.

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Wed Sep 16, 2009 4:38 pm

Johnno wrote:Dare I say it next week looks like a beauty with some follow up falls especially inland Victoria and ranges but still quite a few days out for that one. Mabye just mabye a decent September for Victoria for once? After 3 shockers in a row. Lets hope and Pray.

Yeah. Don't those models show their natural beauty in the latest runs. Lots of chops and changes to come but hopefully things stay together.

Some light rain here now.

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  typhoon29 on Wed Sep 16, 2009 5:00 pm

hey all, looks like a solid blob of rain for the next 32hrs for most of western Vic. Alas I don't think there will be any storms, general rain me thinks. The weekend may be different?
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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Sep 16, 2009 5:34 pm

Seems like the rainband is working it's way in quite nicely however I think we will find out what we will recieve in the coming 12hrs. I think the timing of the rainband - being at night, with lighter winds and cooler temps could help keep it in tact.

Beyond the this system there seems to be a weak front which could cause a few showers and the chance of a storm on Saturday again thanks to timing.

Into next week, well not touching that but I reckon it looks more like a westerly setup with frontal activity rather than an outrageous cut off inland.
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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Wed Sep 16, 2009 5:40 pm

Reckon we can pretty much pencil this one in now. All models are suggesting 10-20mm for most areas - looks like the best will be in the west and northeast - but overall no where looks likely to miss out (though as we know there is usually someone left disappointed by systems).

Expect the city to get close to 10mm and am hoping for 20mm up here in Ferny Creek. Things have really dried out over the last week, so this should undo a bit of the damage.

Looks like the rain will be widespread but mostly light and hang around for a good 12-24 hours.

Main thing that could go wrong is that central areas get stuck between the first burst of rain which weakens and then a second burst as the system moves into the east of the state and reorganises.

PS would keep a close eye on Saturday. With a little low level moisture we could see some strong convection and maybe even a rumble.

Next week look very good with a nice unstable NW/SW sequence for the whole week.

PS 19.7C up here today - that's about 7C above average for us.

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Sep 16, 2009 5:45 pm

Fingers crossed then DJ!!! Smile

I must say that the only concern I have is that of which you mentioned, the rainband weakening and redeveloping to our east through coming 12hrs but looking at it, there is not sign of holes anywhere even though it is peaking presently. Plenty of thunderstorms to the northern part of the rainband too.

Saturday could surprise with the cooler air aloft with some warmer surface temps with instability. Looking like a nice day for some chasing there just quietly.
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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Twister on Wed Sep 16, 2009 5:58 pm

Wow last weeks system really hit everyone hard, last week was never looking good, to windy and WAY to dry.
This time the air is more moist the upper and mid level are very moist compared to last time.
The other day was never going to be great but this system will be good not the best ever but will be solid.

Already 10mm+ falls clocking up in SA with another 6 hours more rain to come for many, should be many 10mm falls and few 20mm falls as well great system for Sa and should be solid for West Vic.
NW Vic will only get about 5mm maybe the odd 8mm spot, Sw should see 12-15mm
Looking at about 7mm or so around Melbourne and some 15-20mm falls on the hills and mounts

Nice system best we have seen in awhile for many areas, haven't seen that much rain in SA for a very long time Smile

Enjoy it, Showery cloudly light-mod wind day tomorrow, hoping the west, inland and hills can get good falls out of this

7mm here by this time tomorrow I reckon

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Sep 16, 2009 6:02 pm

Ernabella having 11mm today. Maybe the highest fall of the year there!!!
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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Post  norfolk on Wed Sep 16, 2009 6:16 pm

I wonder what people will say if we get less than 1mm of rain?

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Re: Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

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