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Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

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Post  Karl Lijnders Tue Sep 22, 2009 5:36 am

Fantastic falls everyone!!! Should another 10-30mm across the northern half however cloud signature on the south suggests widespread showers developing this afternoon.
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Post  Sniper Tue Sep 22, 2009 6:08 am

16mm here and 17mm at Lake Eildon.
Happy days!!


Last edited by Sniper on Tue Sep 22, 2009 7:12 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post  lightnin Tue Sep 22, 2009 6:57 am

29 mm !!!!! Great Rain - Best rain to the north of Geelong all year, reports of 30 - 35 mm near the You Yangs.

Bring on the showers and follow up!

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Post  Karl Lijnders Tue Sep 22, 2009 7:14 am

Latest US downgrades rainfall by half but not too worried.., it is a half run.
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Post  Karl Lijnders Tue Sep 22, 2009 7:39 am

BoM suggesting 20-50mm across the north and east tonight and tomorrow with Melbourne literally on the fringe but can still expect rain after midnight with 5-10mm. That could change like last night.
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Post  I_Love_Storms Tue Sep 22, 2009 7:40 am

Any storms today?

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Post  dagget Tue Sep 22, 2009 7:44 am

We scored another 3mm overnight taking our total to around 19mm, will be more accurate from now on though with an empty gauge!

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Post  Karl Lijnders Tue Sep 22, 2009 7:55 am

The rain is increasing in SA and moving SSE moreso than indicated.
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Post  Power Storm Tue Sep 22, 2009 7:59 am

Well I tipped out 6mm of rainfall to 9am this morning. I am happy other areas got more than here for once Wink And well done John, you deserve it buddy!

I_Love_Storms wrote:Any storms today?

Its still fairly unstable across the state today with LI values expected around 0 to -1 through central regions. As the next system approaches today, I the instability yet again increases, with the western districts seeing LI values down to -3 this afternoon/evening. Moisture levels over the state are still good today, and looking at the latest satellite image, we should see some clearer skies moving into the west later.

From looking at this, I would suggest the focus for thunderstorm activity would be mostly restricted through the western districts, and also in the northwest extending east. They should develop this afternoon and I'd say we could get some severe activity again.

When the BoM charts are issued, I will get them up!

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Post  NoRelationToNed Tue Sep 22, 2009 8:25 am

14.5 mm in Kerang - but only 7 mm in Cohuna. Great start to an epic week we hope - although there's no pleasing some of the cockies, one said this morning that "it's too late for us, we're buggered" I think he was referring to pastures being grown for hay which have already gone to seed. Further west in the grain belt, it should resuscitate crops which were getting marginal.
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Post  Melbourne Skywalker Tue Sep 22, 2009 8:30 am

Morning everyone, 21mm reported at home. Fantastic system & a excellent follow up to last weeks rain. Very Happy bounce

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Post  rikjpool Tue Sep 22, 2009 9:38 am

31mm for us last night... plus 2mm of drizzle so far today. Smile
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Post  Jase72 Tue Sep 22, 2009 11:12 am

we tipped out 20mm where i was!! great steady rain most of the night. Partly cloudy day and rather windy from the north where i am.

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Post  floydlove Tue Sep 22, 2009 11:29 am

19mm here, which is pretty much what I expected overnight. Perhaps on the higher side. Smile Good start. Two 10mm+ falls in under a week, I must be dreaming.

Decided not to go to my beach house, just have a feeling it won't be that significant up there, thought in saying that, it will be now haha. I'm thinking another 5-10mm overnight for Melbourne.

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Post  James Tue Sep 22, 2009 12:55 pm

not holding my breath for these magical thunderstorms to appear......so far they didnt last night (at least in my area) and i just think its more likely rain rather than the traditional thunderstorms back in the mythical "good old days"!! Rolling Eyes

still its been such a long time since there was anything notable at night in the way of lightning here

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Post  Twister Tue Sep 22, 2009 1:06 pm

Would rather have rain band than thunderstorms at this stage, late spring summer should bring some nice big storms though

15mm last night 2 15mm falls in 5 day WOW what going on lol its great to see though

Great system for everyone the whole state did well and that is so rare these days

Loving the Rain all night, sunny all day pattern, please keep going lol.

Hopefully this system does move more to the north off here so they can get loads more rain as they will mostly miss out on the Fri-Sun were I think many of us will get 20mm looking cold and wet then

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Post  Australis(Shell3155) Tue Sep 22, 2009 1:38 pm

The SA Radar looks good again.. not as good as yesterday.
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Post  Rhino Tue Sep 22, 2009 1:58 pm

This just issued by the BOM:

Severe Weather Warning
for flash flooding
for people in the North Central, Northern Country, Wimmera, Mallee, Alpine Areas, East Gippsland and Northeast forecast districts.
Issued at 3:43 pm EST on Tuesday 22 September 2009.

Weather Situation
A low pressure system over South Australia will move over northern Victoria tonight before moving to the east of Victoria Wednesday morning and deepening.



Heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms which may lead to flash flooding is forecast for the North Central, Northern Country, Wimmera, Mallee, Alpine Areas, East Gippsland and Northeast forecast districts during Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. General falls of 25 to 50 mm are likely.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:

Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water.
Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.
The next warning will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Tuesday.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300-659-217*.

Rhino. Smile Smile

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Post  I_Love_Storms Tue Sep 22, 2009 2:48 pm

Some decent storms near Canberra

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Post  Karl Lijnders Tue Sep 22, 2009 2:58 pm

I actually expect fine weather to reamin in southern VIC and Melbourne to largely miss out. But the rainfall gradient will be very tight so falls will be close by and heavy within ~100km to our north.

Touch and go and things can still change.

Expect some enormous totals about the divide and then through the NE ranges tomorrow.

The rainband is developing over the NW currently.

Looking showery and windy end of the week but US continues to downgrade rainfall so that is no surprise. Another 25-50mm is nothing to be sneezed at though within this sequence.
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Post  Mantis Tue Sep 22, 2009 3:05 pm

Wrong thread I know but we just got caught in a hail storm up here in Bowral. Had to pull off the road as we couldnt see. Looks like a line of them heading over us.

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Post  Sniper Tue Sep 22, 2009 3:13 pm

WTG Mantis!! You will have a full gauge when you return to Horsham!!!

Not sure if the low will track exactly as BOM forecasts. If I am reading it correctly, the low is currently east of Adelaide, probably in line with Swan Hill. If the low is to deepen off East Gippsland tomorrow, surely Central areas will see some activity.

Am I way off the mark?

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Post  Rhino Tue Sep 22, 2009 3:20 pm

Be interesting to see what happens tonight around most nth areas with the low developing, would be nice to get the 50mm forecast by the BOM but will be happy with 10mm after only 16mm overnight, be some big totals around this time tommorow. Would be nice just to see creeks flowing around here again so I won't even contimplate them flooding anytime soon. Rolling Eyes

Rhino. Smile Smile

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Post  Karl Lijnders Tue Sep 22, 2009 3:28 pm

Just depends on timing Wes. My forecast for tonight and tomorrow is purely guess material. I think we will evaluate on the hour and with the reports coming in from the west of showers and some thunder, well things are all over the shop!!!
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Post  mick Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:02 pm

25mm for me, I slept through most of it, must see if I can find the radar sequence. Some decent tide marks on the roads this morning. That leaves only 5mm to get in 4.5 days to get my predicted 30mm. I was expecting 10 mm from last night tho, not 25.

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