Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  Greg Sorenson on Sun Sep 20, 2009 10:30 am

Bom are putting figures of up to 135km/h, so there is always a chance of higher again for exposed areas. Could see the Hogan Is reading of 169 to be shaken. very exciting time ahead.
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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Sun Sep 20, 2009 10:36 am

ILS, Greg nails it. Winds between 120 km/h and 130 km/h should be expected, with stronger gusts developing, perhaps up to 140-150 km/h. I would watch out for the winds in thunderstorms though if you are over western Victoria tomorrow afternoon, and BoM agrees; here is the just updated BoM thunderstorm chart and it looks interesting for tomorrow, much as we expected with the trough.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

DAY 2 THUNDERSTORM FORECAST
Issued at 12:12 pm Sunday, 20 September 2009,
Valid from midnight tonight until midnight on Monday, 21 September 2009.
A low pressure system and trough will move towards Victoria from the west during Monday, with increasing cloud and instability. Thunderstorms are unlikely during the morning, however the risk of middle-level thunderstorms increases from the northwest during the afternoon and evening. There is also the risk of surface-based convection in the far northwest during the late afternoon and evening. Severe weather is unlikely to result from thunderstorms in the leading edge of the cloud band. However with low and mid-level winds increasing signifiantly during the late afternoon and evening, the chance of either storm organisation or damaging wind gusts also increases. It is possible that a severe thunderstorm warning will be required for storms in the northwest later tomorrow afternoon or evening. A severe weather warning for damaging winds may be required as well (or instead) because severe wind gusts could develop with or without thunderstorm activity.

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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Sun Sep 20, 2009 12:25 pm

Wow, they really must be expecting a very powerful system.

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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  Sniper on Sun Sep 20, 2009 1:50 pm

BOM 4 day MSL prog chart has a tidy low off East Gippsland (in Tasman Sea) at 959hPa. Anywhere from say Sale onwards should start preparing for some wild conditions.

00z GFS looks juicy. The set-up doesn't suit inner central however Otways and eastern catchments should see plenty of good falls.

We are pretty much 24 hours away from this system, should we be seeing some SWW or Flood Watches?

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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Sun Sep 20, 2009 1:52 pm

Severe Weather Warning is likely to be issued this afternoon or during the morning.

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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Sep 20, 2009 2:04 pm

Still 50mm plus for the week on the central ranges and 25mm widespread from latest GFS. NE and Otways are looking at probably 100mm+ for the week. I don't think I'd be complaining too much if I 'only' got 50mm or Melbourne got 25mm, sure it would be nice to get more (which i think is possible) but the beauty of this week is those that 'miss out' won't really be missing out if you know what I mean, it is one of the most intense setups I've seen for some years for Spring.

Having said that the risk of mozzing things is ever present. jocolor We all know how the models can pump rainfall totals up, cold air etc. and what we actually get is something very different, it's happened so many times before. Regardless though at this stage you have to say exciting times ahead.

GF day looking like -4C 850T at this stage and plenty of shower activity on and south of the ranges. What that means is we are looking at the potential for a major snow event with snow levels possible to around 400m at a guess. Still plenty of time for that to downgrade though, (GFS is pumping it up and that model often overestimates the intensity of cold outbreaks), but all models have been on to it lately.

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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  Johnno on Sun Sep 20, 2009 3:58 pm

Sniper wrote:BOM 4 day MSL prog chart has a tidy low off East Gippsland (in Tasman Sea) at 959hPa. Anywhere from say Sale onwards should start preparing for some wild conditions.

00z GFS looks juicy. The set-up doesn't suit inner central however Otways and eastern catchments should see plenty of good falls.

We are pretty much 24 hours away from this system, should we be seeing some SWW or Flood Watches?

Yes mate, mabye only the alps later tomorrow SWW, Tuesday is a tricky one as the 2nd low develops over us which means the westerly will be cut off for a period in the uppers which may calm the wind down for abit so perhaps no SWW on Tuesday (cept once again mabye for alps) defintely a SWW for all areas Wednesday and storm force winds East of the Central coast of Victoria so perhaps East of Point Lonsdale or Cape Shank. Flood watch should be issued for North East Victoria definetly within the next 12 to 24 hours.


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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  floydlove on Sun Sep 20, 2009 3:59 pm

Looks to be a very interesting week and about time for spring. GFS looks pretty intense state-wide. I just hope the tap doesn't turn off after this week or are the signs still looking decent after this week? Still we have got to record the totals first before we can get too excited.

Sniper wrote:BOM 4 day MSL prog chart has a tidy low off East Gippsland (in Tasman Sea) at 959hPa. Anywhere from say Sale onwards should start preparing for some wild conditions.

00z GFS looks juicy. The set-up doesn't suit inner central however Otways and eastern catchments should see plenty of good falls.

We are pretty much 24 hours away from this system, should we be seeing some SWW or Flood Watches?

With that low off East Gippsland, what do you reckon we could except for far East Gippsland ie Mallacoota? I've got two weeks off so perhaps I could visit my beach house at Mallacoota and witness some good weather (rain, storms, wind etc)? I think even last year they recorded 100mm in a day, so I've been really missing out of late.

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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sun Sep 20, 2009 4:09 pm

The long wave looks to reinvigorate again after a lull come Monday week.

Head down to your house flloyd!!!
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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Sun Sep 20, 2009 4:29 pm

Not much to add - looks like a really interesting sequence though suspect people will be frustrated initially as the slow moving nature of this sequence means that big rainfall totals will build close to small ones Rolling Eyes Would hope to see pretty much everyone get at least 25mm and the catchments 2 to 4 times that amount.

GF days is looking great (for weather). Might get a snow event up here before summer (fingers crossed).

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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sun Sep 20, 2009 4:46 pm

I think your quite right DJ,

We have done very well in C VIC the last 4-6 weeks so if we seem to struggle early on then that is OK but I feel with the lighter winds we may do OK. And with NE winds developing there will be a better chance of getting a few hours of rainfall.

Tuesday looks very wet for the north and east with Melbourne on the cusp. One to watch there.

The winds will really develop from later Wednesday into Thursday.

Rain redeveloping into Friday and Saturday too which looks more of a better chance for the south.
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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  AUSSKY on Sun Sep 20, 2009 4:57 pm

Clyve's liking 30-60mm for the central ranges over the coming week - his comment last night was that he hadn't seen a setup quite like this since the 50's!!

Blocks are mowed, outside is tidy - it can rain all it likes!!
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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  Johnno on Sun Sep 20, 2009 5:18 pm

How did yesterday go Jane? Was the weather ideal for you and your doggy?

Like to think I could get 15mm here and the city by Wednesday night and another 15-25mm Thursday to Sunday if I get that I'll be a very happy man.

Yes given the set up anything less than 60mm for the dams this week would actually be a dissapoinment I would expect to see the O'shannasys, Upper yarras, Silvans and Maroondahs dams to get inexcess of 100mm between tomorrow and next Sunday

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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sun Sep 20, 2009 5:22 pm

Melbourne water would not release that information Smile

Jane - if you could ask Clyve as I was not even a twinkle or anything in anyones eye at that time Wink What did these setups produce in the Melbourne region??

Well be interesting to see. I think it may be a slow start but will progress to something decent by Tuesday.
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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sun Sep 20, 2009 5:24 pm

18 September 2009
Storages nudge back over 30%

Melbourne’s storages have continued their rise in the past week, despite little rain over the catchments.

The increase was due to residual flow from the catchments, following good rainfall during the first half of September.

The major catchments received 2.7 mm of rain for the week - well below the long-term average of 36.1 mm.

Total inflow into the major reservoirs, at 15.7 billion litres, was about 27% below average.

Storages increased by 0.6% of capacity, representing a net boost (after consumption) of 11.1 billion litres.

Storages are now 30.1% (544.4 billion litres) full, compared with 34.2% (607.2 billion litres) at the same time last year.

This is the first time storages have been above the 30% mark since March 2009.

Residential water consumption increased 11 litres to 150 litres per person per day.

Visit Target 155 Open this link in new window or contact the government water retailers for information on restrictions and tips for reaching the target.

Stage 3a restrictions and Target 155 are currently in place.
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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  AUSSKY on Sun Sep 20, 2009 5:39 pm

Johnno wrote:How did yesterday go Jane? Was the weather ideal for you and your doggy?

Like to think I could get 15mm here and the city by Wednesday night and another 15-25mm Thursday to Sunday if I get that I'll be a very happy man.

Yes given the set up anything less than 60mm for the dams this week would actually be a dissapoinment I would expect to see the O'shannasys, Upper yarras, Silvans and Maroondahs dams to get inexcess of 100mm between tomorrow and next Sunday

show was late starting as the shower band went through and wet the grass enough to make it slippery....pity it wasn't 2 hours later!
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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  AUSSKY on Sun Sep 20, 2009 5:59 pm

Karl,

very wet in Victoria and along the southern coastline for a large chunk of the time...rainfall verages rose about 20% through much of the decade...a phenomenal 10 -15 year period of wet weather with some big floods....
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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Sun Sep 20, 2009 6:02 pm

Karl Lijnders wrote:18 September 2009
Storages nudge back over 30%

Melbourne’s storages have continued their rise in the past week, despite little rain over the catchments.

The increase was due to residual flow from the catchments, following good rainfall during the first half of September.

The major catchments received 2.7 mm of rain for the week - well below the long-term average of 36.1 mm.

Total inflow into the major reservoirs, at 15.7 billion litres, was about 27% below average.

Storages increased by 0.6% of capacity, representing a net boost (after consumption) of 11.1 billion litres.

Storages are now 30.1% (544.4 billion litres) full, compared with 34.2% (607.2 billion litres) at the same time last year.

This is the first time storages have been above the 30% mark since March 2009.

Residential water consumption increased 11 litres to 150 litres per person per day.

Visit Target 155 Open this link in new window or contact the government water retailers for information on restrictions and tips for reaching the target.

Stage 3a restrictions and Target 155 are currently in place.

Thats excellent Karl...so they are almost at 40% then...
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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sun Sep 20, 2009 7:08 pm

I thought you may like that Anthony Wink

Thanks Clyve and Jane... Floods would be nice!!! In the catchments!!!
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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sun Sep 20, 2009 7:12 pm

Latest US increases rainfall dramatically over the state.
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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Sun Sep 20, 2009 8:43 pm

Karl Lijnders wrote:Latest US increases rainfall dramatically over the state.

What are we looking at exactly? Is there any time this week where we can possibly expect a 24 hour non-stop period of rain?

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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sun Sep 20, 2009 9:02 pm

www.bsch.au.com

Go to forecasts then accumulated rainfall.

It is showing widespread 50-150mm rainfall across VIC and about 50-100mm to most of Melbourne. Wouldn't think there will be 24hr period of rainfall continuous however if there is a low pressure system closer by early in the week it could happen.

Starting to take shape now in the centre.
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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  Bobman on Sun Sep 20, 2009 10:33 pm

Looking forward to it. Let's hope it delivers.

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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  Cascade on Mon Sep 21, 2009 4:21 am

Bring it on!!!!! Only 19mm for the month ,so far.

Ian.

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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  Johnno on Mon Sep 21, 2009 5:12 am

Models looks really good this morning the Eastern half in particular looks extremely wet but all the state looks to get a good drink the next 6-7 days. If Melbourne City doesn't get 20-30mm between now and Sunday their is seriously something wrong... All Melbourne catchments should get close to 100mm if not more now quite confidiant about that now.

The first low passes just SW of us tonight before the next very strong upper trough comes through tomorrow over Victoria running into Moist air generating a new cloudband and areas of rain & storms in Northern, Central and Eastern areas with heavy falls quite likely in the North East and parts of Gippsland.. That Upper trough bombs into a 2nd low off the Gippsland coast before moving SE Wednesday.

New front late Thursday with another band of showers or rain then some mighty cold air progged pirat to come through late Friday into grandfinal day EC looks very good and GFS seems to be going even more nuts with extreme cold air with hail, thunder low level snow the whole works so probably one of the most interesting weeks of the year coming up starting tonight for some.


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