Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Thu Sep 24, 2009 12:14 pm

I wonder how DJ went??

Just for you I rang the misses Smile . 10mm to report from Ferny Creek so a very strong rainfall gradient on the north side of the band (6mm at Dunns Hill, 10mm for us - about 2km south, and 14mm at Cardina about 8km further south again).

I suspect the Scoresby AWS has calibration problems.

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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Sep 24, 2009 12:23 pm

It's classified as Wantirna South Lily

Thanks DJ. Rang my sister and she reports 14mm in Monbulk near Silvan Dam.

I hope your wife didn't have to run outside Wink
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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Sep 24, 2009 12:39 pm

20C in Melbourne. Isolated storms about various areas, one over Rhino in Maryborough and another down on the surf coast near Firestorm. May be something to come with reasonable convection.
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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  floydlove on Thu Sep 24, 2009 12:41 pm

The BoM have updated their forecast for today, don't see that happen too much.

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Partly cloudy. Scattered showers becoming more isolated during the afternoon. Local thunder is possible this afternoon. Winds west to northwesterly averaging 20 to 35 km/h tending north to northwesterly 25 to 30 km/h later in the evening.

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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  Rhino on Thu Sep 24, 2009 12:51 pm

Yeah Karl, been raining solidly here for the last 20 min, no thunder though.

Rhino. Smile Smile

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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  Scott Lawrance on Thu Sep 24, 2009 12:54 pm

Nice blob of rain directly over Yea just now. Right on target!

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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Thu Sep 24, 2009 1:15 pm

Only 4.5mm here for the day.. So Id say that Scoresby is spot on..
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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  Sniper on Thu Sep 24, 2009 1:19 pm

Plenty of activity north of the ranges. Castlemaine up to 6mm, Maryborough 3mm. Good to see!!

BOM 4 day prog chart is out. Looks a beauty!!!

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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Thu Sep 24, 2009 1:29 pm

Sniper wrote:Plenty of activity north of the ranges. Castlemaine up to 6mm, Maryborough 3mm. Good to see!!

BOM 4 day prog chart is out. Looks a beauty!!!

What is Saturday like for Melbourne?

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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  James on Thu Sep 24, 2009 1:40 pm

no thunder anywhere yet, but there is certainly some nice convection but it doesnt quite seem "storm" convection - just your average rain type

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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  floydlove on Thu Sep 24, 2009 2:26 pm

14mm here in as many minutes. The last rainfall total was 19mm in about 5 hours so it was really coming down.

Last three totals have been 10mm+, (17mm, 19mm, 14mm) 50mm in a week!! I seriously must be dreaming and with Friday-Monday still to come with plenty of weather to get through! 71mm for the month. Smile

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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Sep 24, 2009 2:34 pm

All the information pertaining to the weekend system can be found in the new thread started today. This one is just going to get so huge that it will be hard to find info in it later on down the track.

Grand total of 17.8mm today with the 11mm falling within a 10-15 minute period and heavy showers before and after that.

Still some thunderstorms developing over northern and western ranges.

Not quite over!!!
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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  firestorm on Thu Sep 24, 2009 2:38 pm

Karl Lijnders wrote:20C in Melbourne. Isolated storms about various areas, one over Rhino in Maryborough and another down on the surf coast near Firestorm. May be something to come with reasonable convection.
Not much to report really today must have missed the best stuff only the 1mm in the guage for today there was plenty of light showers during the morning and between 1-2 this arvo.

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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  SC on Thu Sep 24, 2009 2:42 pm

Good to see plenty nice totals around.

10mm here.
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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Sep 24, 2009 2:54 pm

Seems that the rainfall was heaviest in a triangle from Berwick/Cardinia through to Rowville/Lysterfield/Knoxfield/Glen Waverley up to Viewank/Doncaster/Plenty and down through to Lilydale/Mt Evelyn/Woor Yallock/Dandenongs.

Amazing how quickly it developed over the land just from the CBD eastwards. Insane!

Nice fall there SC Smile
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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Thu Sep 24, 2009 3:02 pm

Very cool to hear so many good reports today. EC spot on the money for today!

Convection mostly occuring over the ranges currently. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible across the central parts late this afternoon/early evening, but contracting back to the southwest overnight.

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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  windyrob on Thu Sep 24, 2009 3:05 pm

Scored 12mm taking me to 73mm for the month Smile I was certainly not expecting the white out conditions of heavy rain today!
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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Sep 24, 2009 3:06 pm

Certainly is a surprise I can take more often!!

Nice looking cell about Yarra Glen currently.
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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Thu Sep 24, 2009 4:19 pm

Some really nice towering Cu around central areas ATM so wouldn't rule out the odd heavy shower popping up during the evening.

Today was a classic and just shows the importance of timing. A front timed for good solar heating often works a treat this time of year (when the low levels have reasonable moisture).

Up to 32mm of rain at Buller also so great for continued runoff (the more the merrier).

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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Thu Sep 24, 2009 4:45 pm

Karl Lijnders wrote:Amazing how quickly it developed over the land just from the CBD eastwards. Insane!

You're right KL, came out of nowhere, and although humid, I wasn't expecting that sort of convection.

It would be nice to get some of these set ups in the summer months, we would get some absolute monsters. However, I am thinking it is highly possible that the tropics may suck up all the moisture again and leave us with dry air similar to last summer.

I was just having a look and last November and December weren't bad rainfall wise, and then someone hit the switch and we went 35 days without a drop.

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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  SC on Thu Sep 24, 2009 5:26 pm

Thanks Karl and thanks to the Weathergod.

I see Hotham has a 100% chance of 20-40mm....impressive WZ call. I have really liked the weather patterns in the last 2 months. Alot more conversation and debate with results, indicating La Nina is now coming into play. Bring it on.

Yesterday I saw some Pilus on top of Cu that was building as it went past me in Richmond. Exciting stuff as we head into Summer.
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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Thu Sep 24, 2009 5:29 pm

Just noticed that there is quite a substantial cell to my NE, and in the last couple of hours convection has shot up and grown strongly. Maybe an interesting night here...

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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Thu Sep 24, 2009 5:30 pm

I'll put my comments in before I go through all the posts from today. Classical spring day today in Melbourne with the 'four seasons in one day' making a welcome return. Mostly cloudy for most of the morning and early afternoon with an absolute ripper of a downpour around 12:00pm that flooded part of Errol Street, everyone had to walk on the road to get around it. I'm sure many parts of inner Melbourne were flooded in parts where there is poorer drainage. Later in the afternoon, sunshine and warm.

2.2mm here but other than 0.6mm at the Melbourne Water Mount Macedon automatic gauge there were no other totals falling over the gauges locally so we must have got lucky. Plenty of puddles around anyway on the way home. 1.7mm yesterday as well so another 3.9mm the past two days which keeps things ticking. There was some very nice cold air Cu/Cb bubbling away towards sunset over the Dandenongs.

As for this weekend. If anything it looks to have upgraded although I'm going purely by GFS here so could be a different story with the other models but hopefully not. Very strong and vigorous SW flow. 850T of -4C and could even reach -6C locally if LAPS is to be believed although I reckon that's a bit over the top. The main thing though is rainfall progs remain very healthy on and south of the ranges to coincide with the cold air with roughly 10-15mm likely here by the looks of things which usually doesn't happen here in SW winds which indicates very vigorous dynamics. Catchments are going to get an absolute drenching with a dumping of snow on the Yarra Ranges and maybe the top of Mount Dandenong.

As for here there is still the chance of some snow at times down to my elevation (520m asl) but more likely 600-700m+. You'd reckon Mt. Macedon would be covered to half way down the mountain by Sunday but I admit I have a habit of getting over excited about things and mozzing them so I'll keep quiet. Rolling Eyes

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Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Post  JC on Thu Sep 24, 2009 6:57 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Your working above are not dissimilar to my understanding and I am well aware that your knowledge is far superior.

Johnno the 850 level varies with the surface pressure and the temperature - I took a guess at what the current progs were suggesting. Looking closely the actual level looks to be (about) 1300m at the peak of the cold outbreak over southern Vic.

If you look across southern OZ on Saturday the level ranges from near 1200m over Tasmania to near 1600m over southern WA.

The variation of the levels is a bit of a trap for "young" players. I've seen 850T before to -7 associated with BIG highs coming in behind cold outbreaks. These look furiously cold, but when they are sat at 1700m (rather than ~1300m) they are a pretty unremarkable airmass!

I actually find the thickness values a better guide on most occasions as they measure temperature and are not dependent on surface pressure.

Hi Hillybilly,

I am not Johnno I am afraid, JC stands for Justcruising from WZ.

I always take into account the thickness values and as a rule of thumb this will equal snow at 1400 metres if the 540 line is above the alps.
As a guide 536 will get down to around 1k and 528 will get down to around the 500-700 mark.
Once again the 540 line can even be present as a "doughnut" over the alps within a cold cored high pressure system.
I find it interesting that the '850 level varies with surface pressure and temp' I haven't taken this into account with my analysis.
I know that accurately forecasting snow levels is most certainly a difficult art and topography has a huge impact on what happens in real life. Nevertheless, I still stand by my forecast that snow is certainly a chance or even likely at Mt Macedon and I think the Dandenongs will only see sleet at best.

Anyway enough of that - was probably best for another thread I dunno..

Onto today that was a very photogenic cell or what looked like a series of cells that I saw coming down the eastern freeway at around 2ish today. Very strong updraughts that looked fantastic against the clear blue sky.. Certainly doesn't surprise me that there were some great rain rates observed, the structure was solid and anything but weak...

Now onto tomorrow and this weekend - I can't wait!
My type of weather and it was long missed this disappointing winter...

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