Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Really is shaping up as a very active week with a sequence of fronts and lows moving through the southeast. The first system looks like forming over inland WA on Sunday and rapidly intensifying over SA/the bight on Monday. It then moves into Bass Strait followed by a series of strong fronts.

With warm spring sunshine and a warming bay this has the potential to be very productive. Both EC and GFS show widespread falls over 25mm and falls beyond 50mm in parts. If this delivers could be good for runoff after today's rain.

Still a few days out - so it could change.

The air mass on Tuesday is looking very warm and humid with the large cut off low and associated cold pool running into it later on Tuesday. GFS at this stage is going for a very unstable day, could 'go off' QLD style if GFS is on the right track and holds its progs.

This is looking like a great sequence - rain, gales, storms, highland snow, the works. However - as the same time it could be quite damaging with the tuesday low bombing to about 980hPa southwest of Vic and then NW/SW gales for the whole week.

EC and GFS both suggest widespread 25-50mm falls for the week - would not be surprised to see totals over 100mm in the northeast.

Could well be the most productive rain/snow sequence of the year.

Next day or two should allow the details to firm up.

John Allen will be getting excited:)

EC has 75mm for Mount Dandenong next week. I'll settle for that....

Otherwise not much to add - Monday/Tuesday are certainly the best looking days for substantial widespread rain then showers/storms and plenty of wind. This is one of the strongest lows of the year - only question is on its track.

It is a crazy looking system with high winds and heavy rainfall for a good portion of Monday PM.

I think it will come down to placement obviously but I think Melbourne should score another 10-20mm out of it Monday night with winds of 30-45 knots.


Also running a good risk of thunderstorms through Tuesday ahead of the next system with colder air, good news is this westerly belt looks active and may be strong enough to spawn another band of rain on the weekend - one to watch.

Otherwise a reasonable chance of a thunderstorm tomorrow.

best i have seen EC in a long time and only 96 hours rather than the dreamy scenario od 216 hours...

Hopefully catchments should do very well and run off should increase..looking real wild too and as suggested its track will determine rainfall totals.

Brilliant news, I can't wait...

ever optomistic but feeling as though this next week could mean the difference between stage 4 water restricitons or not - peoples thoughts on that?

Hmmmm not sure Damian,

I think the run off is continuing in the catchments for the next few days pending rainfall tomorrow. I think we should surpass the % levels next week of those of this time last year.

What I like about the model output is that they continue the rainfall or potential for rainfall right through to the start of October!! This time last year, the rain dried up, the tap was completely turned off and we were already browning out!!

Might just quickly mention that things are looking very scrumptious indeed from Monday!! Lots of storms should be about, my camera is charged and ready!!!! Cannot wait, will put more emphasis into my post tomorrow... way too tired atm...

At this stage it looks to me like the northern slopes and northeast are going to do best. Especially with the first dose of rain (mainly Monday) the strong upslide focuses in the north of Vic with the potential for heavy falls on the north of the divide. Looks like a situation where places like Trentham, Stawell, Bendigo do well.

Think Melbourne is pretty marginal until we go more westerly on Tuesday. Perhaps 20mm for the city for the whole sequence. Will pencil in 40mm for Ferny Creek - but it will all come down to detail. The critical thing is the path of the low. ATM this is a little to west to give good falls in Melbourne, and the flow shifts from north to northwest during Monday over us and so the strong upslide doesn't get to Melbourne.

ever optomistic but feeling as though this next week could mean the difference between stage 4 water restricitons or not - peoples thoughts on that?

- personally can't see us going on to stage 4. The decision is a political one, rather than one driven by percentages in the Dams. With the north-south pipeline on board and the reductions in environmental flows into the Thompson and Yarra I would expect 3a to continue through summer. Still - would advocate getting tanks anyway as when the new water comes on board it will be so expensive that you won't be able to water the garden/wash the car anyway!

Here is my view on things statewide the next 5 days..

Today: Fine at first then scattered showers developing from the west with isolated thunderstorms. Moderate to fresh NNW winds locally strong in parts of the south this morning tending SW. Mild at first becoming cooler after the windchange.

Sunday: Fine apart from Isolated showers on parts of the west coast and exposed South Gippsland coast & early fog & frost patches inland. Cool day. Partly cloudy in the south generally sunny North of the divide. Light winds chiefly Westerly near the coast & south. Seabreezes possible along parts of the coast later.

Monday: Early fog and frost patches mostly Central and Eastern areas then cloud increasing from the North West with areas of rain and isolated thunderstorms developing in the North west by lunchtime, rain spreading South and East later in the day or at night but patchier in South Central and Gippsland districts. Possible heavy falls on the Northern slopes at night & in the North East. Winds tending North Easterly & Strenghening ahead of a WNW change in the West at night. Mild at first but becoming cooler with the rain.

Tuesday: Rain areas & Isolated thunderstorms contracting to the North East easing to showers up there later in the day possible heavy falls up there. Scattered showers elsewhere especially in the West becoming more extensive during the afternoon with local thunderstorms & Isolated hail. Rain tending to blizzards above 1300 metres. Strong to gale force N winds in the East at first tending Strong to gale force West to North Westerly. Cool to Cold day.

Wednesday: Scattered Showers, more widespread in the south with local hail and thunder in the south tending to rain at times in West & South gippsland. Snow above 1000 metres. Strong to gale force & Squally Westerly winds. Cold day.

Melbourne should have been on stage 4 for years like the rest of us. Beleive me , you will find ways to keep the garden alive with grey/tank water if you want too.
And car wash places find water as well as they have done here.
Beats stealing water off the country people Mr Brumby.

Certainly shaping up as good rain bearing event for the north and west initially however this is still coming down to position of the low on Monday.

It appears LAPS is overcooking rainfall a bit and US and MLAPS are more conservative as they work the rainfall into the region.

Melbourne will get about 5-15mm on Monday night with a very windy period but this could change a bit more as we get closer. Beyond that rainfall could accumulate to about 50mm over the week with plenty of fronts and wind about through the week - even up to GF day.

Looking good.

EC is looking very interesting still for the entire week. Looking like two seperate lows now and quite a nice cold outrbreak on GF Day with temps in the low teens and very showery weather and snowfalls for the state.

In the meantime I think showers for the entire run with periods of rain around each front. Looking like a bit of deluge along the slopes Monday with 20-40mm likely with 50mm falls about the higher elevations and 10-30mm along the plains either side of the divide but favouring less rainfall in the southeast.

Then the focus swings opposite for the mid to late week with southwest to west winds and another low later in the period.

Yes this week is certainly looking like it is going to deliver big, but particularly for the west and north at this stage thanks to the current positioning of the lows. The fronts in between the lows look quite vigerous and strong, so lots of extended periods of gale force winds and rainfall, with thunderstorms likely too, late in the west on Monday, then throughout the north, south and west on Tuesday. Expect big falls, but models are still changing quite a bit, so I will wait till tomorrow nights runs.

BTW, there are so many lows in one of the runs of GFS and EC. Could not believe it when I saw it tonight.

How will Grand Final day fair in all this?

hillybilly wrote:Still - would advocate getting tanks anyway as when the new water comes on board it will be so expensive that you won't be able to water the garden/wash the car anyway!

already way ahead of ya - put in 2000 ltrs 3 years ago and hooked up to the toilets and the front garden - have the greenest lawn and cleanest car in the street

EC - which is about the best has a wet day - about 10mm in Melbourne with W to SW winds (see http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Melbourne/long.html) . Still too early though to be sure (though certainly won't be a hot one).

A really active and complex situation coming up which should produce a lot of rain. First part is pretty straight-forward with a low developing over inland WA, moving to be near Adelaide noon on Monday, then near Mt Gambier tomorrow night. Extensive rain is likely to develop to the north/east of the low and particularly affect north and west areas (looks like some for Melbourne but don't expect more than about 10mm and probably less). A second low then forms over Vic on Tuesday and bombs near Gippsland - dropping below 980hPa by Wednesday morning. The track on this particular low is pretty uncertain but it will produce heavy rain, high winds etc. At this stage looks like eastern areas should do best with central areas like to get a good burst of wet weather in the southwest flow behind the developing low.

The the remainder of the week sees wet/windy northwest/southwest flow with signs of a cold outbreak for GFD.

Would be surprised not to see a few 100mm+ falls for the sequence.

Reckon about 50mm in Ferny Creek, but could be closer to 100mm if the second low develops over south Gippsland.

looking like such an exciting week comming up i cant wait to be able to expect rain pretty much every day for 6 to 7 days is pretty amazing hopefully it comes through as predicted but expect plenty of wind to which i could do without!

Looking like an awesome week...and just looking outside this is what i remember Spring to look like 20 years ago..fairly unstable and humid where anything can happen. Should see a lot of run off this week into the dams, so whatever figure they give double it and thats our increase for the week percentage wise.

One thing in particular for this week, is that we are likely to see a fair amount of thunderstorm activity, particularly cold-air type later in the week, and mostly affecting the southern parts. Tomorrow though is a different story with thunderstorms. We could see some severe activity develop from the west during the afternoon with a trough and ahead of the low. I will speculate on rainfall totals this evening.

Great to hear that they are not downgrading their forecasts like normal

I don't mind storms and wind

How high will the gusts get?