Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

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Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Sep 24, 2009 5:12 am

I haven't had a great look because of work but still looks reasonable for decent rainfall and strong winds starting from tomorrow.

But I think I will leave the summary to those with more information.

Just thought this event needs its own thread.
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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Thu Sep 24, 2009 5:29 am

Reckon the official forecast sums it up..

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Isolated showers, mainly near and south of the ranges becoming scattered in the southwest and along the dividing range during the afternoon. Possible afternoon thunderstorms in the southwest. Mainly fine in the far northwest and over East Gippsland. Snow showers above 1500 metres. Cool to mild with moderate to fresh northwest to westerly winds.
Forecast for Friday

Areas of rain extending from the west during the morning with scattered showers, local hail and thunder to follow. Cool to mild with strong and gusty north to northwesterly winds tending west to northwesterly.
Forecast for Saturday

Showers with local hail and thunder, more widespread on and south of the ranges. Snow developing to 900 metres. Becoming colder with fresh to strong northwest winds shifting west to southwesterly from the west during the afternoon.
Forecast for Sunday

Scattered showers, mainly over southern and mountain, with possible thunderstorms and hail in Gippsland. Snow falling to 900 metres. Patchy morning frost in the north. Cold with fresh and gusty southwest winds, stronger about the coast.

Strikes me a really solid event - which will be more notable for rain amounts and strong winds. Also expect some great winter coldies. Temperatures are not as cold as some of the better cold outbreaks, so can't really see snow below 500m at this stage.

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Sep 24, 2009 5:34 am

Wouldn't be surprised if frontalgenisis was to occur on the cold air field through Saturday afternoon which could result in further areas of rain.

Looking like a very moist SW flow
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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Sniper on Thu Sep 24, 2009 1:03 pm

I hate referring to models, especially GFS. However there 0-96hrs 00z prog is indeed exciting!! Very Happy Cool

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Sep 24, 2009 1:40 pm

Latest US wants to put parts of C and E Victoria in flood!!!
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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Johnno on Thu Sep 24, 2009 1:58 pm

It looks like a very moist SW flow to me hitting against the ranges there progging those rainfall in those areas that do well in South westerlies than your typical wrap around cut off cos its progging no where near those totals to its SW over Bass straight where the rain is coming from.

Personally I think GFS is over the top probably be half those totals but nevertheless even if that is would still be a great event.

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Sniper on Thu Sep 24, 2009 1:58 pm

A flood watch has been issued for parts of South Australia, whilst Tassie (yet again) have a Flood Watch advice, whilst two rivers are in flood.

BOM Melb obviously reviewing the charts, however with the rainfall already received, if we get anywhere near what the models suggest, a Flood watch should be out by midnight.

Exciting times ahead!!!

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Johnno on Thu Sep 24, 2009 2:03 pm

Personally I don't think they will issue a flood watch Sniper 1st reason like I mentioned earlier mate I think GFS is over doing it 2nd I don't think it is as wet through that area as its been in the North East also you tend to get more snow melt through the North East contributing with the rain into the river systems. No snow left in places like Baw Baw at the moment butttt you never know we need to get at least 50mm throughout that area tomorrow alone before they issue a flood watch I think.

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Sep 24, 2009 2:09 pm

It will be interesting to see what is recieved up in Baw Baw and the surrounds. But I think 100mm over the region is a shoo in there and could translate down the range over the plains of Drouin, Noogee, Neerim and Warragul. One area to watch.

I think 50-100mm over the eastern side of Melbourne in the 4 days of precip to come. Looking forward to some topping up after the localised flash flooding of today!!
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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Sep 24, 2009 2:13 pm

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDG00074.shtml

This signifies what sort of weather is coming - to me it shows that Melbourne and the east central areas/west gippsland are in the prime spot for a good old fashioned hiding!!
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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Bobman on Thu Sep 24, 2009 3:15 pm

Looking forward to it.

This should easily put us ahead of the average September rainfall. Very good news.

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Sep 24, 2009 3:19 pm

EC is very similar to US in placement and we could see some very heavy convergent showery bands move up in the SW flow Saturday-Sunday. Wouldn't rule out periods of rain about E Central and Gippsland regions with showers and hail further west.

Could be a bit more in this than speculated so far. Low seems to be bombing more and more as well as moving a little further west each run! E TAS is going to be pummelled.

BTW looking a good shot for some follow up rainfall statewide next week, not heavy like this but enough to keep things ticking!!
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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Thu Sep 24, 2009 4:22 pm

I notice EC has (about) 45mm for Mt Dandenong over this coming event which is a lot for the EC model. This model does tend to underestimate showery/drizzle stuff at times (while GFS tends to get rather too carried away).

At a stab I'd expect about 50mm in Ferny Creek, but wouldn't rule out totals over 100mm if it really gets going.

Not so sure about snow - need it too cool off another 1 or 2C to have a serious chance.

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Johnno on Thu Sep 24, 2009 5:03 pm

Yeah I agree DJ so something inbetween personally, I'll be happy with 20mm from this system which would take me to 70mm+ for September anything more be a bonus but my base amount to aim for is 20mm this way.
I Still think most of the Melbourne dams should pick up 40-80mm mabye the odd 100mm fall like O'shannassy dam and that

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  AUSSKY on Thu Sep 24, 2009 8:21 pm

Looking forward to rain and SNOW on the weekend - the fact that I have a dog show in Kyneton (20 minutes form home) means that it will snow heavily on Sunday morning and I'll be forced to do a backyard snowchase instead!! Anyone for coffee and cake at Redbeards after the snow melts on Sunday? bounce
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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Greg Sorenson on Thu Sep 24, 2009 9:30 pm

Very Tempting Jane;) Was thinking of ducking up to the Mt to have a gander...... let ya know.
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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  floydlove on Thu Sep 24, 2009 9:50 pm

GFS has come to its senses a bit now, going for 25mm-50mm for central. I'll take that any day of the week if it comes off. I reckon at least 20mm here is a sure bet for the next 4 days.

So far I'm glad I didn't go to my beach house as I've had more rain here! Maybe these next 4 days they might catch up, wait and see.

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Sep 24, 2009 10:15 pm

I think US will upgrade again come morning. It looks like it has dissolved the low to an extent. I think it will put it back next run thus increasing rainfall again of 50-100mm from the east of Melbourne to Sale.

Showers increasing in the SW presently.
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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Fri Sep 25, 2009 5:17 am

Today is shaping up as a really wet one with the upper trough really sharpening up. Looks like rain periods - particularly this arvo. EC and LAPS both have widespread 10-25mm falls (etc) Very Happy

Looks like a classic SW system this one... though the cold outbreak (while about the coldest for the year) is not that remarkable. Is worth keeping a really close eye on developments as the models are having trouble pinning down where the low will stall (latest EC has it nearer Gabo Island while 12 hours ago it was near Hobart). The exact placement and the meso-scale details will dictate how nasty this system gets.

Now expecting about 60mm in Ferny Creek but could be more. Gut feeling says no snow for us - 1-2C too warm.

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  firestorm on Fri Sep 25, 2009 5:34 am

1.2mm overnight sky is looking very unstable down this way possible storms at some stage i hope! exciting times Very Happy and i have already passed my monthly average tha make 3 months in arrow down here.

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Fri Sep 25, 2009 5:39 am

I hope your 60mm is correct, that would then justify to my neighbors me starting my lawn mower around 6am while the grass was dry..
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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  AUSSKY on Fri Sep 25, 2009 6:11 am

3mm at home since 5.30am with the temperature having risen and dropped again back to 6.7C...loving the lines of showers coming through - the one we had in Abbotsford a short time ago sounded like the melt level was already pretty low... bounce
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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Luken on Fri Sep 25, 2009 6:16 am

Models are really struggling like Hillybilly said. Now it looks like a lot of rain today whereas last night it was looking like only a bit this afternoon.

Radar certainly looks good for some more solid falls with good precip all the way back past Adelaide. Geez I have never seen Adelaide get dumped on so many times in a week. Great for them.
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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  AUSSKY on Fri Sep 25, 2009 7:06 am

Clyve's outlook from www.stormchasers.au.com/currentcr.htm

OVERVIEW: A trough and cold front will pass across the central ranges Vic through Friday morning bringing showers and a risk of storms, showers tending to longer spells of rain in the morning, northerly winds will freshen before shifting colder northwest or west  through the day. A few further showers in the afternoon but with sunny intervals, another trough passes across the central Ranges through Saturday afternoon and overnight into Sunday introducing a very cold southwest/south airmass, a high pressure ridge moves into Vic later Monday and through Tuesday ahead of another trough late Tuesday into Wednesday.

DAILY WEATHER EXPECTATIONS
FRIDAY 25/9/09: Cloudy with showers/drizzle and a risk of a storm, northerly winds early shifting northwest or west through the morning, further showers in the afternoon with a risk of hail, patchy hill mist, winds occasionally gusty. MIN TEMPS 6 to 8°C MAX TEMPS 9 to 13°C

SATURDAY 26/9/09: Cold with occasional showers, showers heavy with hail and thunder a risk especially later, northwest winds strong and gusty at times, showers turning to sleet and snow later or overnight, snow more likely on higher areas above 700M.  Winds shifting southwest or south later in the day or at night with strong gusts at times, risk of road ice overnight into early Sunday. MIN TEMPS 3 to 5°C MAX TEMPS 8 to 11°C lowering to near 3 to 5°C later in the day.

SUNDAY 27/9/09: Very cold with showers and strong south/southwest winds, showers of hail sleet and snow especially in the morning, snow showers mainly above 700M, patchy road ice a risk over higher areas in the morning, a few sunny breaks mainly later. MIN TEMPS -1 to +1°C MAX TEMPS 5 to 9°C.
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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Fri Sep 25, 2009 7:56 am

It is starting to look attractive now, front must be near

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

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