Victoria: Upper Trough/Low - September 30th - October 4th 2009

Looks like another attempt at a rain event for much of the state with reasonable totals possible for southern and eastern VIC

US/JMA/NOGAPS has rainfall of 10-30mm across the state. Most of that falling in the south but a secondary feature swings winds SE over the state and turns showers to rain in SE VIC with Melbourne on the cusp, certainly worth watching.

BTW the origin of moisture is of interest. Coming out of the NT. Sometimes these can turn into huge producers. Fingers crossed a low develops

I expect very little at this stage few showers perhaps on each day but thats about it. GFS has fallen into line with EC now keeping the bulk of the rain Well North and well East of us. Til I see a fairly big change in this pattern of things getting shifted south I'm expecting little.

It is not looking as promising but not convinced on current progs. Very different with the late week low bobbing back and forth (north and then more south) on each run.

Looks like a band of rain Wed/Thurs crossing the state with light to moderate falls across the eastern and northern areas, Melbourne on the cusp. Then a few showers across Friday but the flow has become a lot less zonal and is becoming more meridional with systems becoming more north-south moving and the westerly belt finally relaxing and moving further south. This could mean better prospects for thunderstorms developing - warm cored nature, but this will see a decrease in the frequency of rainfall.

There are signs of troughs moving west to east through the period. Hopefully they trap some moisture.

LAPS looks OK with 10-15mm overnight into Thursday morning.

Bit of a tricky one this upcoming system, though we will know more with tomorrows 00z updates. I suspect however that most of the rainfall will be focused through the northeast quadrant of the state, with only isolated showers elsewhere. There does remain the risk of an isolated thunderstorm on Wednesday, but I would put it at a less than 5% chance at this stage.

Looking further out I suspect most activity to clear up during Saturday morning, Sunday should be fine but then we could see a trough move into the state on Monday, bringing isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms to the north and west after a short period of NNE winds on the Sunday. Next Tuesday shows a frontal system moving in, but not very significant at this stage. But plenty of moisture leaking in from the north too, so maybe we can get a system hooking into something....

I agree with Karl, the weather patterns are starting to change again, and with the latest BoM 3-month outlook, things are looking like gloom and doom in the longer-term, not good news at all and lets hope it does not turn that way, but it's the weather and it does what it does.

It's transitional weather so we could go a little quiet for about 1-2 weeks which is not unusual...just need dribs and drabs to keep us going!!!

Is one of those situation that could go either way. EC and NOGAPS have been producing OK totals through parts of Vic but the bulk of the rain goes north. Will be interesting to see what the 0Z model runs make of the situation.

On a positive - this could deliver some rain to NSW which is currently very dry having missed a lot of the recent rain.

as long as the rain isn't anywhere I am driving through NSW!

US keeps the rain focus through NSW and N VIC with 5-10mm possible with general pattern resolving thundery in a NE flow early next week.

LAPS and MLAPS keep the patchy rain through VIC with 5-10mm over the state. Looks slow moving so it won't be heavy.

Good day today.

Models this afternoon are more keen now on shifting this system more South towards us nothing major but there has been a distinct change in direction with LAPS, GFS, UK and JMA now developing the low and rain closer to us rather than inland NSW or the NSW coast. Be interesting to hear your thoughts DJ as well as others.

Be interesting to hear your thoughts DJ as well as others.

Is looking mildly interesting Johnno. LAPS, GASP, GFS, NOGAPS and JMA all bring the system south into Victoria with good prospects for rain. EC had it moving across NSW and UK is a mix of the two scenarios. One would probably back the majority scenario of the low moving into Vic on about Thur/Fri for what could be quite a decent event.

EC is usually the best model, so I don't often write it off - the next update will tells us a lot more. The JMA is fast becoming another very good model for Australia.

Gotta hope we don't transition into a thundery NE regime yet - much better to stick with westerly fronts for regular rainfall top ups.

It is only useful if the thundery events drop 100mm at a time and are once a week - I think I am pushing my luck...

I would think patchy rain areas about the state Thursday-Saturday through VIC with accumulations of 10-30mm across the state. But this is some way off still.

But US first predicted then fell off and now is swinging back to it. I must say that the past few systems have been modelled by US very well, although it pulls back, it comes back in the end.

EC showing not much rainfall yet, but I think it will come back. It has moved it south somewhat still.

Too wacky for me to get into detail this time round. I'd still say the better falls will be restricted to the northern half of the state. We will know more (hopefully ) this time tomorrow night.

Uncertainty still by the looks, one of those systems that could deliver a few surprises hopefully, another 10mm by Saturday would be great. Great to see flooding around the state. Now to get waterways in the western parts flooding.

Rhino.

Strikes me that the models are converging on the low tracking across southern NSW (or at least a very sharp trough). What is not clear is how far south of the low the rain extends. EC and GASP has it hugging north of the divide while GFS, NOGAPS, LAPS, JMA have it as far south as Bass Strait. UK sits in the middle. There is also quite a bit of divergence on totals though all suggest good falls are likely in southern NSW into parts of northern Vic.

The mechanisms for rainfall on the south side of lows are often quite subtle and small changes in detail can make a big difference to totals so these are inherently quite difficult to forecast (as we saw two weeks back when parts of the Dandenongs got 70mm while the city got 1mm).

A difference of one or two hundred kms could make a big difference to totals.

BTW our min this morning was nearly double (in C) our max on Sunday!

wow it's like 6 degrees warmer in Avalon compared to melbourne! What't the deal?

Tony, strengthening NW winds helping the temps to spike.
Great day out there, if you removed the wind!!!

24C already at Avalon. Would suggest 27 to 28C will be the final number.

Melbourne usually catches up with Avalon later in the day (though on most days is 1-2C cooler). Suggest we'll be in the mid 20s by early afternoon across much of the metro area.

I know how the NW can reallt spike the temps down there, I was just surprised it happened so early and by that much! Seems it has stopped down there, temp has died back a couple of degrees.

Northwesterly winds were strong here this morning, pushing temperatures to around 20 degrees, though winds have died down, and there is actually a break in the increasing cloud, so temperatures are climbing again. Expecting a max here of 21 degrees today.

Looks on the radar like patchy light rain extending from the southwest atm. Only very light and should reach central parts later today, though no more than a couple of mm's possible.

Friday looks slightly interesting re the low. Could see some patchy rain over southern Victoria, with the more thicker stuff through the north, obviously better falls across the north if that was the case.

But what has me interested is early next week, probably from Monday onwards. Looks like we will either get a 'rain' event or a 'thunderstorm' event. GFS has LI values down to -4 in some spots approaching Victoria, EC keeps some very good rainfall totals for Victoria alive, particularly the west/southwest of the state, but all of the state in the scenario receives something. Even GFS looking quite good for rainfall early next week. Will have to keep and eye on that.

Just a thought, could all this wind bring any dust down this way?

EC has its precip forecast page up temporarily, shows what Jake is looking at next week as well as this week's possibilities.
http://bit.ly/2ZztIX

Jake,
I don't look at GFS Stormcast further than 48 hours out. Agree with you that something is brewing early next week, thinking more rain event than storm activity. Happy to be wrong.

Winds dropped in town, not a bad day at the mo.

still quite blowly here, but when you are on flat plains with nothing anywhere around me, I wouldn't expect the winds to die down that much! Currently 24.0c

You can get the EC rainfall at http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Glen_Waverley/advanced_map.html . This is perhaps the best forecast site around. The EC model is the best there is - though it does have it's weakness and sometimes puts in a bad one. It does tend to under do rainfall in showers and drizzle situations (such as last weekend).

EC is still the outlier for this event. All the others spread plenty of rain across Victoria - particular from tomorrow arvo onwards. NOGAPS, GFS, JMA and LAPS are all showing some heavy falls near the ranges and the northeast.

Personally, can't see more than virga and a few spits for us next 12 hours, but then it starts to get interesting. Anticipate 5-10mm in Ferny Creek Thur/Fri but it could be anywhere between 2mm and 40mm.

Could be another good drop for the alpine areas and catchments. Anticipating 10-20mm here out of the sequence with the highlands to the east copping 50mm in SE winds.

Then there is next week