Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Fri Sep 25, 2009 6:48 pm

What's the go with the satellite image??? Is the dark grey cloud mass/front going to be hitting Melb tomorrow arvo and causing all the havoc? I haven't seen a system like that for a long time.

http://www.bom.gov.au/gms/IDE00035.latest.shtml

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Johnno on Fri Sep 25, 2009 7:06 pm

Some of the rainfall today in the Melbourne dams to 8pm.

O'shanassy 49mm (already)
Cardinia 28mm
Tarago 27mm
Silvan 24mm
Upper Yarra 22mm

Good chance now O'shanassy dam might see close to 150mm by the end Monday all up there now.

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  AUSSKY on Fri Sep 25, 2009 7:22 pm

hillybilly wrote: There is a definite preferred track for rain/storms down through the eastern burbs just west of the Dandenongs. It's remarkable how many of these tend to peak at the corner of Burwood highway and Ferntree Gully Road. The systems then often end up tracking towards Cardinia

.

Yep - I used to sit in Bayswater and watch them go past me to the south and to the north, they'd run along the ridge from Doncaster to Ringwood...........grumble, mutter, grumble...
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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Lily on Fri Sep 25, 2009 7:26 pm

Evening everyone, lovely falls being recorded in lots of places, isn't it wonderful to see?

I've been out all afternoon, literally out in the rain and cold (and stupidly wore shoes that were far from water proof - my toes are only now starting to thaw out Rolling Eyes Very Happy ). I've arrived home to 17mm in the gauge which is a great start but looking forward to more.

I can attest to Knoxfield being extraordinarily soggy today - we were there at my mother in law's most of the late afternoon and just as we arrived to unhitch our (brand spanking new, shiny, gorgeous cheers ) van, it absolutely pelted down. Her front yard was awash, the entire front yard was a puddle. I've only ever seen it like that with heavy and consistent rain, she said it had been raining almost all afternoon. I've been measuring my gauge against both Karl's and Scoresby for some years now (sorry again about that stalking thing Karl lol), and while sometimes we can be very close in readings such as yesterday, at others there are more substantial differences as we are today. I was in Bayswater for three hours this afternoon, no rain in Bayswater yet looking south towards home (and Knoxfield) you could see the rain passing through, I even commented to my husband that we were missing out on all the good weather. He just rolled his eyes at me as usual (he doesn't get it rofl!).

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Sep 25, 2009 8:09 pm

Lily it is such a joy having you live so close because for years people think I was talking crazy and I all I had was my word when releasing numbers from what had fallen out here, granted there are descrepancies and today there was one with my rain gauge but I have 3 so there is back up Wink. But I appreciate that you get how mad it is. The rainfall gradients are crazy. I walked through the rain at 3:30-4:00pm around Lakewood and just got baptised - it was insane how much rain was falling in that space of time.... But I could clearly identify cloudbanks behind the rain to the NE and rain curtains to the SE and E with thundery rainy scud.

Anyhow 26mm here and a new band of rain developing with the decaying coldies that seemed to have merged and could potentially deliver another 5-10mm if it develops proper over the coming 2hrs. One to watch. At this stage I will say a few showers but the potential for another band of rain is literally a flip of a coin at this point.

Stay tuned.
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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  firestorm on Fri Sep 25, 2009 8:09 pm

12.2mm upto now an another shower just starting over head. The local river is just holding atm as our water catchment is full water is spewing into the river some flooding by the morning for sure will get some pics if this happens! Off to bed .

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Sep 25, 2009 8:52 pm

Looking good for further rain developing across Melbourne tonight....

Cannot beleive our luck!! 5-15mm looking good. May get 40mm here by 9am!!! First 40mm fall since December last year if it happens.
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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Fri Sep 25, 2009 8:59 pm

Yeah, it is active enough out there with the beginnings of the cold pool for coldies to cluster together and almost form patchy rain. Slow moving too which is a big plus.

Getting some nice precip. right now. Smile

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Sep 25, 2009 9:03 pm

Incredible downpour here again, really intensive rainfall currently. Seems to be convective/mid level at the moment.

Another 2-3mm in the last 5 minutes, gutters overflowing and it is nice!!! 29mm for the day with moderate to heavy rain continuing. Might get 50mm
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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Sep 25, 2009 9:06 pm

BTW there could be flood watch out for the Dandenong Creek region by tomorrow I think... The Police Paddocks will go under at some for of flooding over the weekend into next week with this excessive rainfall.

The rainfall over the east of Melbourne will likely increase as it gets here..
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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Sep 25, 2009 9:09 pm

Severe Weather Warning
for damaging winds
for people in the Central and West and South Gippsland forecast districts.

Issued at 10:23 pm EST on Friday 25 September 2009.
Weather Situation

A low pressure system will deepen to the east of Tasmania during Saturday and an associated low pressure trough will move through Victoria during the afternoon.

West to northwesterly winds will strengthen during Saturday morning before a squally west to southwesterly change develops during Saturday afternoon. Damaging winds averaging 60 km/h with peak gusts around 100 km/h are forecast for parts of the Central and West and South Gippsland forecast districts near and after the change. The coastal fringe is likely to experience the strongest winds. The warning for the Alpine Area for Friday evening has been cancelled.
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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Twister on Fri Sep 25, 2009 9:27 pm

An amazing thing happened today

I drove From Clayton to Mildura in far Nw Vic today and for the first time EVER in my life, i had WET roads the WHOLE trip all 580km of it was Wet, to Flooded roads. Which were awash on and just north of the hills. Marrong, Charlton had loads of water around and was bucketing down.
I have NEVER seen anything like it was unreal and SO good to see. Very Happy:D:D

The amount of water in paddocks, dams on the side of the road was unreal everything is SOOO Wet and green and it is September its just GREAT.
Last 100km wasn't as wet, but still roads were wet and things mostly green.
From Mount Macdon to about Sea lake things are soaked, can only hope there is more to come.

Also experienced the amazing hole over Melb were i had sunshine till just south of macdeon then pissed down till Charlton.

Looks like On and north of the Hills, NE, and Melb have done VERY well with loads to come another band forming right over you very jealous send it to the dams farms and inland also lol

5mm here in Mildura today from MORE Thunderstorms lol, heard again today there was some nice lightning, booming thunder and pouring rain

Its now 8c clear and with 50km/h W winds,
Hoping some showers and hail can make it up here tomorrow

Looking VERY wet for on and South of rangers next 48 hours enjoy lucky buggers
WHAT A WEEK OF WEATHER best this year feel and still 2 more big days to come

Watch for easy 20mm in city areas 40-50mm in hills till 9am with another 15-20mm again tomorrow, hoping it Dumps in Alps and in river catchments and dams.
GREAT SYSTEM

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Lily on Fri Sep 25, 2009 9:29 pm

It is a great system indeed! I took a look at radar less than an hour ago and there was nothing close by of note, now look at it!

Nice steady rain here again too, though only light-moderate Smile I agree re: Police Paddocks and Dandenong Creek. As we drove over Corhanwarrabul creek (Monbulk & Ferny creek runs into it, it runs through Rowville, Stud Rd passes over it near Caribbean Gardens) it was already quite high and the reserve next to it was almost completely under water. Usually when that floods, Police Paddocks and Dandenong Creek follow.

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Blackie on Fri Sep 25, 2009 9:33 pm

Do I hear 60mm Karl Very Happy seriously does look like another period of rain for us for the next couple of hours, really filling well from the west. Plenty of 25mm + falls around the state now great to see. Up to 20 mm for us in Mansfield so far today - 40 mm for the week.

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Sep 25, 2009 9:41 pm

Look I have whiteout conditions 6 times in 24hrs. It has been just a deluge here....

I am getting similar falls to Lily now, moderate rainfall with a mixture of drop dimensions. 29mm here now and looking to crack 30mm by midnight which is phenomenal!!

60mm is a stretch but you never know here Wink
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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Dane on Fri Sep 25, 2009 9:43 pm

Just 12mm's here today, MTD now 70mm's still short of the ave which is 86mm's.

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Sep 25, 2009 10:02 pm

30.4mm here @ 12am. 10mm more than the AWS closest by...amazing!!

Significant rainfall and a possible storm around Kangaroo Ground/Wonga Park presently. Could drop upwards of 10mm alone that cell - possibly more. Fairly heavy rain here again.
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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Bobman on Fri Sep 25, 2009 10:18 pm

Just light showers here at the moment. Ground is nicely soaked.

Dane, we're about 10mm off the average for Melbourne and where I am. I reckon the September average will be beaten in all suburbs as there is plenty of rain forecast before the end of the month. Hope it surpasses the average by a bit too.


Last edited by Bobman on Fri Sep 25, 2009 10:20 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  floydlove on Fri Sep 25, 2009 10:19 pm

Only 13mm here so far, still on track for my 20mm for this event. Still pretty much doubled the CBD's rainfall total and I'm only about 10km away. Just shows how it gets wetter and wetter the further east you go.

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Sep 25, 2009 10:19 pm

Teaming down again... Gutters overflowing. This ahead of the next line which could strengthen significantly leading into the hills.

5mm is an average in the last hour of the Central West ranges - so rainfall could be quite remarkable in the next 4-6hrs.

32.4mm here now.
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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  damiantheomen on Fri Sep 25, 2009 11:01 pm

what brilliant totals around the state - top system - just coping another round of showers here and there i was thinking it was all over Razz
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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  floydlove on Fri Sep 25, 2009 11:18 pm

It is brilliant isn't it? Only on 13mm but it's so good to have persistent rain all day and into the night. I think we really have to cherish this as who knows, with the way our weather is these days, when it will happen again. Moderate to heavy rain starting to set in here, I would be rapt with another 5-10mm before the weekend even begins. That would give me my predicted 20mm and I can really enjoy the weather. Smile

Btw, the Northeast are killing it. 20-30mm already there.

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Sep 25, 2009 11:24 pm

35mm here ahead of the next band!!!
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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  AUSSKY on Fri Sep 25, 2009 11:41 pm

We have snow!!!!! (brief in amongst about 20 minutes of torrential sleet) Clyve had a lot more flakes that I had. Temp currently 1.4C - Tango thinks I'm mad!!
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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Sat Sep 26, 2009 3:11 am

Yep - I used to sit in Bayswater and watch them go past me to the south and to the north, they'd run along the ridge from Doncaster to Ringwood...........grumble, mutter, grumble...

Yeah i can watch them go behind me and inf front too.
9mm overnight. total 25.5mm. month total 99. My bro in law in FTG is now getting a rain gauge for xmas.
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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

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