Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Proteous on Fri Sep 25, 2009 3:59 pm

Yet to receive a single drop here but great to hear that most parts are doing well. Might be a slim chance with the second band. I think the best hope for here will be when the SW stream becomes established over the weekend. Though I thought I was wrong once but that was a mistake. Very Happy

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Johnno on Fri Sep 25, 2009 4:02 pm

7mm here would of liked abit more was hopeing for 10mm out this way but doesn't look to be but thats ok takes me to 60mm for the month. expected 20mm for this system im 1/3 of the way there

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Luken on Fri Sep 25, 2009 4:05 pm

Still going here, hasn't stopped in at least 2 hours. Must be up to over 15mm now, but haven't been out.

Best month or so of consistantly good falls I can remember since I moved out of the hills 10 years ago. Yeah we have had some good weeks of thunderstorms, but not these nice wide spread solid falls which go for hours on end. It is raining like it does in the movies for once!

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Fri Sep 25, 2009 4:09 pm

OK the latest GFS strike me that this system has the potential to be huge.

It has a secondary low near 995hPa just south of Melbourne which eventually deepens to near 970hPa off the northeast coast of Tasmania. Lows this strong and slow moving are rare. The actually rainfall amounts will critically depend on the convergence bands and the track of the low, but I could see some large totals developing about the Dandenongs/Upper Yarra Valley etc if a slightly more northerly track develops on the low.

Of course, the system could also track slight further south, put Vic into the Tas rain shadow and leave people damp but not flooded.

There is a big difference in rainfall totals between EC and GFS so some real uncertainty. I wouldn't want to call it either way, but worth keeping a close eye on - I wouldn't write GFS off.

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Luken on Fri Sep 25, 2009 4:15 pm

It does look amazing. Especially on the back of the last month. Huge runoff and flooding anywhere east of Melb. Be great for the dams.

Up to 20mm here now since this morning and 16.5mm since about 3:30pm. Just starting to taper off now. But will increase again once it swings more SW.


Last edited by Luken on Fri Sep 25, 2009 4:25 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  anvildome on Fri Sep 25, 2009 4:25 pm

Rain only just starting to be mentionable here.. been drizzling all day but can only just hear it on the roof now..Would be real nice if it settled in for the whole night!!!

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  mick on Fri Sep 25, 2009 4:29 pm

10mm for the day, id expect some places around the town have had 30. The northerly we have had all day is swinging to the west here.

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  firestorm on Fri Sep 25, 2009 4:32 pm

bucketing down again right now Very Happy

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Sep 25, 2009 4:34 pm

25.4mm here Smile. Really came down hard at lunch with a torrential burst at 3:30-4pm and moderate to heavy rain up to 6:30pm.

Not much now but 45mm here the last two days and ~73mm for the week.

Water everywhere!!!

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Luken on Fri Sep 25, 2009 4:42 pm

And geeez it's got cold!

What is your MTD Karl?

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Fri Sep 25, 2009 4:54 pm

21.8mm here today, water everywhere, large sheets of water in paddocks, all drains and gutters overflowing and resembling lakes. No actual flooding anywhere of course but basically what it used to be like here at this time of year back in the 80's/90's. Mount Macedon MW gauge showing 11mm, has to be an error surely. 20 mm odd around Romsey, Lancefield, Trentham etc. and the amount of water around indicates an easy 20mm without even having to look at the gauge. Looking like another 10-15mm likely here this weekend.

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Sep 25, 2009 5:06 pm

Yeah I suspect a lot of totals to vary from location to location. The rain here was incredible but the closer AWS not getting more than 18-20mm.

MTD is about 120-130mm I think.

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 200

Post  snowshow on Fri Sep 25, 2009 5:09 pm

anvildome wrote:hey Snowshow... Im in Traralgon and nothing here yet..... The radar looks bloody awesome in Melbourne....
Hi anvildome, I came back from melbourne this arvo and went to Traf and up the thorpdale road the rain increased as I got closer to Mirboo North, as happens a lot, we get rain here when there is nothing happening in the valley. It is still raining here solidly and has not stopped since I got home

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Mosaic on Fri Sep 25, 2009 5:11 pm

10mm in the latest burst, 2mm early on resulting in 12mm. That GASP program would have to be the worst doing the rounds, EC nailed it yet again, and did it, 3 days out when the other models didnt commit. GO SAINTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Fri Sep 25, 2009 5:17 pm

16.5 for the day 90mm for the month. Karl you just seem to be getting so much more and we are so close, it seems to be a regular thing, although I was happy with today and not more as its squishy out there. Ive been pumping every spare bit back in the ground out of the tanks.

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Sep 25, 2009 5:22 pm

Yeah pure luck again Michelle. Yesterday was a total fluke and today was just as the band sat. You missed the narrow heavy rain at lunch which dropped 7mm here. Seemed to miss the AWS too.

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Fri Sep 25, 2009 5:33 pm

Fantastic to see Melbourne eastwards so many good falls. Hope everyone enjoys.

Its been fairly windy here today with showers on and off, quite heavy this afternoon.

Expect rain areas to continue over eastern parts this evening, with scattered showers extending from the west again overnight and tomorrow, particuarly near/following the change. Local hail and thunder developing mainly near and following the change as well. Going to be a wild day tomorrow.

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Sep 25, 2009 5:34 pm

Steady rain here again.

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Fri Sep 25, 2009 5:36 pm

18.5mm up here in the end. Now have 55mm for the week and 150mm MTD. There was streams of water running off the mountain tonight so is starting to get wet. The Dandenongs have had between 120 and 200mm so far for the month so a good result.

Yeah pure luck again Michelle.
- not quite Karl. There is a definite preferred track for rain/storms down through the eastern burbs just west of the Dandenongs. It's remarkable how many of these tend to peak at the corner of Burwood highway and Ferntree Gully Road. The systems then often end up tracking towards Cardinia

Today's top score is 28mm at Cardinia.

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  typhoon29 on Fri Sep 25, 2009 5:39 pm

a wet day here with 11mm. Good day for the young ones to go for their licences.

Wintry day tomorrow lots of 4 seasons in a day stuff. Bring on the coldies~!

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Fri Sep 25, 2009 5:46 pm

First of the cold air activity slowly approaching the west central ranges now. Still 6C here atm.

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Fri Sep 25, 2009 5:48 pm

- not quite Karl. There is a definite preferred track for rain/storms down through the eastern burbs just west of the Dandenongs. It's remarkable how many of these tend to peak at the corner of Burwood highway and Ferntree Gully Road. The systems then often end up tracking towards Cardinia

would be interesting if there was someone in between with a gauge also. Was expecting more on the hill than 18.5mm.

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Sep 25, 2009 5:54 pm

I live 2km west of that point and wenget deluge after deluge. 26mm now for the day with rain still falling. The rainfall gradient is huge out here. Thanks DJ - I hope it continues out this way!!!

Watching closely to the north. Could see a few more mm.

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  Scott Lawrance on Fri Sep 25, 2009 5:55 pm

15mm here so far for the day - a brilliant good old fashioned wet day where the rain was steady for most of the day. Fantastic. A total of 33mm for the week for us.

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

Post  windyrob on Fri Sep 25, 2009 5:57 pm

Scored 10mm so only need 18mm more to crack triple figures for the month.
Interesting little storm cell on the yarrawonga radar too!

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Re: Victoria: Significant Cold Outbreak - September 25th-29th 2009

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