Victoria: Upper Trough/Low - September 30th - October 4th 2009

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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Low - September 30th - October 4th 2009

Post  Mantis on Wed Sep 30, 2009 7:02 pm

Radar is showing stuff over us but its clear as. Warm too and actually gone up a degree in the last 30min.

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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Low - September 30th - October 4th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Thu Oct 01, 2009 4:48 am

No rain overnight (as anticipated by me) and was very warm until the "front" drifted through here around 5am. Was 18C at 11pm - that's 3 times warmer than at 5pm on Sunday when it was 6C Razz

Looks like a few spits today in the south but not a lot in it - tomorrow looks more interesting with 2-10mm in the south and 5-15mm along the ranges into the north of Vic across most the models. Looks like the best of it will likely be in the northeast and far east.

EC has decent rain across the north/ranges but nothing further south and continues to be the outlier.

Next week is anyones guess - looks all blocked with the highs jumping into their summer positions Rolling Eyes

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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Low - September 30th - October 4th 2009

Post  Johnno on Thu Oct 01, 2009 3:40 pm

Its not over yet cos this event has happend yet but looks like ALL the models now have swung round closer to the EC scenario with little to no rain for Melbourne and the bulk of it in the North and East that model ceases to amaze me how accurate it can at times but tomorrow we will know more just hope EC is on the money for next week as well Cool

If the Upper yarra can get 5 to 10mm and Thomson 10mm or so out of this tomorrow it will keep the dams ticking nicely along

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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Low - September 30th - October 4th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Oct 01, 2009 4:36 pm

Yeah there will be a few showers through Melbourne with some drizzle patches about as well. If we get some rainfall spilling down that would be a miracle. But so so close!!

Very damp under foot still.

Might need to start talking about next week soon Smile
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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Low - September 30th - October 4th 2009

Post  mick on Thu Oct 01, 2009 4:52 pm

It was one of those weird warm/cool/humid/windy/still days here today. Usually this leads to a brown rot warning somewhere in the next week. IMO, the weather today is a lead up to a warm unsettled week.

I think the dams are at 32.6, the graph looks like a rod sticking up, if you just look at the last week!

I was told today that daylight savings begins this weekend, gawd, we just got new curtains. Its too early, its nice light at 6 am this time of year, now its going to be 7am and its not the same feel when everyone is on the roads.

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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Low - September 30th - October 4th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Thu Oct 01, 2009 4:53 pm

Not looking that great this system - models have all converged onto the EC scenario which has the rain most through NSW and along the ranges. Could still be OK on the northern slopes into the northeast - maybe even 10mm+. Will be lucky to see more than 2-5mm in the south.

Looked like it was going to rain up here a few times today but not a drop - just some early morning fog.

BTW some seriously warm air just to our north ATM with 40C at Birsdville and near 40C at a number of places in northern NSW. Have been lucky not to get a blast of heat in VIc ahead of this system. In contrast inland SA has seen lots of low/mid teens temperatures under rain.

Next week looks very interesting with EC, GASP and GFS all onto a low developing near Vic in an easterly trough.

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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Low - September 30th - October 4th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Thu Oct 01, 2009 7:03 pm

Well yeah I am not that interested either in rainfall, it never was going to be a 'good' system IMO. Only patchy stuff at best for the northern half of the state. It looks like clearing out too late Saturday/early Sunday.

Very, very, very interested in early next week. GFS is more inclined I feel with staying troughy, whilst most other models disolve a low pressure system SW of Vic for a couple of days. If thats the case, we are going to be hit hard with lots of rain. Early stages are looking at some flood watches/warnings to be issued again, but its still a while out, and thunderstorms look as if they will play a part in the weather from Sunday afternoon and evening as the environment starts to become unstable, and we get a moisture plume.

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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Low - September 30th - October 4th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Fri Oct 02, 2009 5:42 am

A few OK totals starting to clock up in the north/along the ranges with a band of near 5mm totals from south of Mildura into the alps. Best so far is 7.6mm at Hotham.

Strikes me that the rain looks to be a little south of predicted by the models - just need it to push 100km further south to give us all a top up. Have lowered my expectations for this system - 2mm at best for Ferny Creek Sad

BTW there is a nice circulation on the radar which is dropping good totals back through SA. Pt August is the top score with 24mm, Whyalla with 23mm and Tarcoola 21mm. Also good falls through the Flinders - must be looking great up there now. These totals should run along the Vic/NSW border and with some decent falls developing in the northeast.

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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Low - September 30th - October 4th 2009

Post  Sniper on Fri Oct 02, 2009 10:05 am

A long yet narrow line of activity now encroaching the north central/north east border areas. It may throw out a rogue spark or too, but nothing too exciting. 5mm max in the usual Alpine and NE areas

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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Low - September 30th - October 4th 2009

Post  NoRelationToNed on Fri Oct 02, 2009 11:12 am

Steady light rain has set in up here along the Murray Valley. Only just over 1 mm so far but it's the slow drizzly kind so feels like there's been more. Getting pretty cold with it too, just 13.3° outside.
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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Low - September 30th - October 4th 2009

Post  Sniper on Fri Oct 02, 2009 12:12 pm

Swan Hill - 5mm
In the words of Monty Burns, excellent!!!

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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Low - September 30th - October 4th 2009

Post  NoRelationToNed on Fri Oct 02, 2009 12:44 pm

cheers ...the slow soak continues, approaching 4 mm in Cohuna now. Laughing
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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Low - September 30th - October 4th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Oct 02, 2009 1:41 pm

Very good rain up there albeit lightly.

I think the far NE could get some more tonight - up to 20mm but generally models have over estimated.
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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Low - September 30th - October 4th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Fri Oct 02, 2009 5:31 pm

Mt Hotham up to 10mm and still snowing. Also 9mm at Benalla and lots of falls in the 5-10mm range across the north which is great for keeping it damp up there.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a few mm about parts of the south tonight - mainly drizzle stuff in southerly/southeaserlies. West burbs up to Macedon may do OK. Not expect anything up here - certainly less than a mm.

Nothing at all for this event in Ferny Creek - crazy to have a significant change in October and not a single drop of rain Rolling Eyes

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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Low - September 30th - October 4th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Sat Oct 03, 2009 5:37 am

0.5mm up here overnight in drizzle. Looks like Hotham Ap top scored with 23mm (mostly snow), also 17mm at Omeo.

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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Low - September 30th - October 4th 2009

Post  Luken on Sun Oct 04, 2009 3:54 pm

Good falls out around BawBaw today. Has hopefully dropped a bit more into the Thompson catchment, just to keep things ticking over after the last few weeks.

Only really 0.5mm here since Friday. Ground got wet a few times, but nothing of note.
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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Low - September 30th - October 4th 2009

Post  Johnno on Sun Oct 04, 2009 4:47 pm

Yes Luken generally 3-10mm through the Catchments NE of Melbourne today the Maroondah dam, Upper Yarra, O'Shannassy with the Thomson close to 10mm and Baw Baw close to 18mm so this will just run straight off and continue the strong inflows of recent times through those areas

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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Low - September 30th - October 4th 2009

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