Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

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Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Oct 01, 2009 4:46 pm

Well I don't usually talk about weather this far out but seeing as this system currently is worming it's way north of the ranges generally, it seems as there is not much happening in the south so something for us to talk about.

Looking like a very good sequence developing later on the weekend and increasing from Monday onwards. EC has some general troughyness and instability during the latter part of Sunday with isolated showers and thunderstorms about the ranges tending scattered during the day and developing over the western districts later. Looking like a few mm in that there.

Monday things start to get very interesting with general rainfall developing over a large portion of the state with falls of 10-20mm about the west and ranges filling in throughout the majority of the state as a low pressure system develops later. Melbourne looks at getting 10-20mm mainly later in the day with showers and storms tending to rain.

Tuesday looks very wet with moderate to heavy falls accumulating over the course of the day. 20-40mm about southern and eastern VIC looks OK as we go onshore and thunderstorms about the eastern half. Showers right throughout the north.

US has been indicating a lot of moisture about the NT/SA/WA streaming into a trough with maritime air moving in on the ENE flow from the Pacific Ocean funnelling all over VIC. This could produce widespread showers and thunderstorms and areas of rain also.

There is something there, this certainly is the wet end of the forecasting scale but it has shown this for a couple of days now. Comes down to position.

Looking like a good top up for the state.
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Thu Oct 01, 2009 7:09 pm

Things looking somewhat dodgy IMO with the change of seasons, but early signs are proving good! Wink

Jake.


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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Fri Oct 02, 2009 5:44 am

I reckon this one has the potential to go bad for Vic. ATM the upslide is marginal and the system has the potential to drop great falls through NSW and far eastern Vic and leave the rest of us in mostly dry east to southeast flow. Still a few days out so pretty uncertain.

We need something to deliver or else the great rain of September will soon be a distant memory.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Sniper on Fri Oct 02, 2009 12:34 pm

I think it is going to go bad to Central areas DJ!!
Very much a Gippsland and more East Gippsland event. Andrew Bolt will be in the papers late next week asking why the Mitchell isn't dammed as GFS is predicting some mighty falls!!

Trough looks to be sitting around West Gippsland from Monday which may spark some storm activity.

Floyd, this may be the time to go to Mallacoota!!!

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Fri Oct 02, 2009 12:42 pm

Forget this post... See above for my actual one. Smile


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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  floydlove on Fri Oct 02, 2009 1:06 pm

Geases! Haha, GFS is going insane for far east Gippsland. I know GFS can exaggerate a lot, but it's this time of year that Mallacoota can really get some big falls so it may not be that extreme. Mmm, typical though back at Uni next week. No chance of getting up there.

Btw, I had a feeling with people talking this up so early that it things would go wrong, I really hope your early predictions are somewhat right! Otherwise, I may end up winning that prize haha. Wink Early days though.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Oct 02, 2009 1:42 pm

I think we are seeing a general winding down in the models for the majority of the state and the focus heading into the east and NSW. But still time to change.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms Sun-Tues and then rain developing in the far east trending fine further west.

EC to come out later.
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Johnno on Fri Oct 02, 2009 2:01 pm

Cmon guys its only 1 run going by EC lets take the median of it the last 5 runs.. 1st it had it like today (Wednesday morning run) then had a closed low moving west to East slowly in SE winds (Wed night run) then had a deepening low in Bass straight near the Prom with strong SSW winds (Thursday mornings run) then last night it had the low maturing West of us in Bass straight and this morning it has gone back to Wednesdays morning run with upper trough and low and surface trough, I think the end result will be somewhere inbetween all these runs.

If you look properly it wasnt actually that bad this mornings run of EC the upper low stays in our vicinity Wednesday and Thursday and 90% of the time in a trough this time of the year that means Storms showers and rain areas... Until I see EC (and other models to a less extent) show 4 to 5 runs of downgrades I am on this system I think it will provide if your looking for 100mm that ain't going to happen for the most of us but 20mm for Melbourne and more for the catchments is very possible and even more possible if caught under a storm.

GFS is not bothering me 1 little bit it totally screwed up todays system and that was 5 days out too it screwed it up by at least 600ks of where it had the low and where its ended up so have some faith. NOGAPS and GASP looked good to me this morning as EC did BOM has 15-25mm for Central Vic this morning and 25-50mm Just East of Melbourne if your looking for a system like last week that is unlikely to happen but if you want some follow up rain and even storms I think it is a distinct possilbilty. We await for tonight but even if EC has downgraded I'm still no fussed, if it shows very little tomorrow and Sunday morning then there be reason to start being concerned so I await at least 36 hours before being cynical.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Oct 02, 2009 3:04 pm

I think people are inclined to forecast on what they see John and that is what I see at the moment...now to look at EC.
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Fri Oct 02, 2009 3:11 pm

EC does not look as good as this morning IMO, unless I am reading it wrong?? I think Sunday may chuck a storm out to the northeast, then Monday possible isolated afternoon thunderstorms over the eastern parts, then possible throughout Tuesday. For rainfall and the low, it seems as if will affect mostly the northeastern/eastern parts of the state at this stage. Drier in the west.


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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Oct 02, 2009 3:12 pm

Looking at EC and US there is some agreement in placing a reasonable low over the inland and then to the east of VIC so this means that rain and isolated thunderstorms will focus mainly through the east of the state. It looks unsettled but lower temps will not be conjusive to widespread convection.

I guess it comes down to position. There is a chance that if enough moisture gets abosorbed into the system, Wed/Thurs could be quite wet across a good portion of the state in ESE winds. But at this stage it looks pretty average for a good portion of the state with the SW potentially missing out on useful falls.

Time will tell but overall the models have been showing a subtle shift to a low over the east again.

BTW EC had about ~10mm for Melbourne through next week and US is also in agreement with this.
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Oct 02, 2009 3:13 pm

Your right Jake Smile

Also there is a risk that if the system does slow down and move southwest a little more than forecast, then we could see some better falls but EC was onto this system currently over the NE, moving in the forecast track currently so I am inclined to go with EC alone at the moment, US/NOGAPS supporting this.
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Johnno on Fri Oct 02, 2009 3:15 pm

EC didn't like today I wasn't onboard I Wasn't either way to be honest hence my little rain possible all week in my forecasts.. The majoirity of models were onboard but we couldn't ignore the fact EC wasn't which what I was saying 3 days ago hence my doubts about today but was open to the idea of perhaps getting a suprise given most models were onboard.
Just like this system today I don't think its wise to pencil something in this far out or be cynical I'm not going to pencil it in but I do like the look of it and to be honest I don't see what the problem is at the moment? As long as Melbourne gets 10-20mm and Thomson gets 50-100mm I can't work out why the negative vibes at the moment? You would think we were having a run of bad luck or something?? Then I may understand why or is it few people perhaps don't like SE wind set ups? Otherwise I can't work out why the bad vibes not every system has to be SW winds to deliver us good rain. Some rain is better than no rain I believe.


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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Johnno on Fri Oct 02, 2009 3:16 pm

Latest EC does look good to me infact even better than this morning. I've seen these situations many times before EC may only have 10mm for Melbourne perhaps at a Guess but these very slow moving situations with upper lows near us usually deliver more for Central Victoria and Melbourne than models usually prog thats going by history.. You did ask for my opinion this morning and here it is for everyone to see... Thats how I feel about it the cynics may not like it but lets wait before we jump in the deep end shall we Smile

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Johnno on Fri Oct 02, 2009 3:30 pm

Not every system behaves the same but saw an exactly same set up in February 2007 when an upper trough came up from the SW and developed a surface trough over Victoria the upper trough moved NE in a space of 48 hours and we had gale force Easterly winds in Melbourne 24 hours later with damage done to the boats at Williamstown and gusts up to 49 knots there from the East! anyone else remember? Anyway my point is models had little forecasted from that too NO Upper low just Upper trough and surface trough NO surface low either and the Thomson dam still got 67mm, given most models are indicating this to be much slower moving and a closed Upper low and surface low in the vicinity then I expect 100mm in the Thomson dam after this if the scenario plays out like the models have it at the moment they always underestimate rain from the ESE for that area so to me even if Melbourne gets 10-20mm out of this (I think could be bit more anyway) the Thomson get close to 100mm then that be a huge success to me as the dams are much more important than what we get in our backyards at the moment given most of us have actually had good rains lately and some of us to the point of extreme where everything is saturated.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Johnno on Fri Oct 02, 2009 4:18 pm

Check where GFS has the Upper trough and low Thursday 00z and where EC has it the same time big differance... No wonder GFS has huge totals out East I'm guessing EC would too given in the end thats where the low heads off too but in the meantime EC keeps the upper low right over us Wednesday night into Thursday which means the focus of rain and storms will also be around that Upper low. I'm with EC at the moment. Only yesterday GFS had a deep Easterly trough in the Southern Bight

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Fri Oct 02, 2009 4:24 pm

So this is obviously a different system to the one today then? ended up with 3mm out of that rain this morning. Another big rain would be great for finishing off the crops. Will have a look at the models later but going by all you guys sounds like we might have an interesting week ahead!

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Johnno on Fri Oct 02, 2009 4:27 pm

You may get another 5 to 10mm next week Adon but we will knowmore next few days

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  floydlove on Fri Oct 02, 2009 4:35 pm

I'm liking the discussion in here haha, it's good to read. So John you don't think there will be any significant falls out far east? ie what GFS is suggesting atm. It's getting towards that time of the year out there but a little early I suppose.

I think it's best to just play it by ear. Hopefully we can get something out of it because I'm already forgetting about September's rain.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Johnno on Fri Oct 02, 2009 5:17 pm

Gday Floyd How things, No mate thats not what I'm saying... I think the East will cop it good chance anyway but what I'm also saying is Central Vic and Melbourne will also see reasonable to good rain which is what 10-20mm is in my book and the Thomson dam will get 4 to 5 times more than that IMO

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Fri Oct 02, 2009 5:39 pm

This system has heaps of potential but not one model is really looking that great for Vic (apart from the far east). We will have a better idea in a day or two. I've see these deep lie back up troughs give thumping rainfalls (such as April 2001).

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  floydlove on Fri Oct 02, 2009 6:05 pm

Johnno wrote:Gday Floyd How things, No mate thats not what I'm saying... I think the East will cop it good chance anyway but what I'm also saying is Central Vic and Melbourne will also see reasonable to good rain which is what 10-20mm is in my book and the Thomson dam will get 4 to 5 times more than that IMO

Not bad mate, yourself? Ah fair enough mate, well that's good you are thinking some good follow up rain for Central areas and especially the dams. Just interested, what are your rainfall totals for the far east at this point of time? Ta.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Sat Oct 03, 2009 5:07 am

Morning guys. looks like models have backed off for rain in our neck of the woods. Looks like the models are all going for most of the action taking place on the east coast. Hope it comes back but looks dodgy for much

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Sat Oct 03, 2009 5:40 am

Does certainly look like an eastern Vic/NSW event. Could creep into central areas but doesn't look like much further west (though you could pick up some thunderies with convection under the deep upper trough).

This system has huge potential - just need it to form in the right spot. The upper trough is very cold - could see some rather low snow in Tas and maybe Vic at the start of the sequence.

Model watching continues...

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Sat Oct 03, 2009 10:42 am

I also still think this will be an eastern/northeatern event now. We are getting closer to the event start, and models still do have time to change, however things are looking less likely that the west will receive much at all.

Now regarding thunderstorms, I would not rule out the risk for isolated afternoon thunderstorms over the western districts tomorrow afternoon, possibly extending into the central district as well. There is an upper trough that should move into the west during the early afternoon, but as this happens, a surface feature may develop over the same area, or a little further east, I think, if I am reading things right. The moisture levels are ok, and there does seem to be some growing instability from the west during the afternoon. If temperatures cool enough I think we could get some convection that could lead to isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Will have to keep an eye on that.

Monday looks interesting too re thunderstorm activity, I think most activity will be restricted to eastern parts as the trough moves a little east.

Tuesday looks active in the way of thunderstorms. I think we should see isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop during the afternoon/evening thanks to an upper feature and an impulse of moisture being available. Temperatures aloft seem ok too. So at this stage, I would say Tuesday looks like it will be good. Time will tell of course.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

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