Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Johnno on Tue Oct 06, 2009 12:56 pm

But for some reason the showers off the surf coast near Point Lonsdale are firing up over the ocean there as they approach the coast I don't know why they are there but not over the bay. This area is cursed.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Tue Oct 06, 2009 1:35 pm

A frustrating system this one - always the way with stream showers which are slow moving. Still 9mm up here so far which isn't too bad (7mm and 2mm) - now just need another 11mm and I'll be happy with the event.

Backside of the Dandenongs around Kallista/Silvan has done very well today - was there an hour back and there was hail lying in drifts and the gutters were flowing like crazy. Also saw a few brief spells of graupel/wet sleet. Also good falls through the Yarra Valley and inland from Laverton.

It's pretty clear that Melbourne and Melbourne's east is struggling with the cold bay effect- the air mass is still chilling so showers have the potential to invigorate and the wrap around is not far to our east so still some hope for more. Case of watching the radar and crossing fingers!

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Tue Oct 06, 2009 1:59 pm

A hail shower this morning, then a locally heavy shower or two since then, otherwise today has been fine and partly cloudy here. Warm in that sun though! A stiff south to southeast wind too!

Isolated cold-air thunderstorms should persist on and off overnight through the eastern areas, tending to rain over W&S Gippsland.

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Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  tizza on Tue Oct 06, 2009 2:52 pm

just had a nice hail sun shower pass through, noice.
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  dagget on Tue Oct 06, 2009 3:02 pm

10mm in the gauge when I got home so we are doing OK out of this so far. Cloud build up was impressive to see on the way home from the train.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Johnno on Tue Oct 06, 2009 3:06 pm

Nice cell just North of the City at the moment great structure to that cloud

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Proteous on Tue Oct 06, 2009 3:38 pm

8.2mm this afternoon and still looks ok.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Oct 06, 2009 4:15 pm

Another 4.4mm since 6:30am this morning when I last checked the gauge, 10.5mm all up now for the past two days. Just had a decent shower before with a bit of very small hail mixed in, looks like quite a bit to come possibly although there are plenty of gaps around with the showers mostly small and shredded up, ranges here are setting up a bit of a stream effect though as these showers hit them. Cold bay is a bit frustrating but orographic effects seem to be doing the trick to make up for it.

Quite a few Cbs around today visible from North Melbourne particularly to the W/NW and SE. Mostly sunny though in the city with a couple of showers mid morning.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Oct 06, 2009 4:29 pm

Just watching the radar and two really intense cells, one passing west of Laverton, the other over the bay approaching Laverton. This is the reverse of what we are supposed to be seeing with a cold bay isn't it? Also the showers approaching my area in the same SE stream over the bay seem to be intensifying on radar relative to areas where the air flow has a mostly land trajectory. Could be some fun for west central areas yet.

Also watching the wrap around showers over South Gippsland DJ mentioned that could give outer eastern suburbs some totals tonight also.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Johnno on Tue Oct 06, 2009 4:34 pm

The Bay has the effect Andrew of keeping showers away during the day especially if its cold but at night the showers increase and get restricted more to the Bay as the Atmopheric temperture drops and becomes lower than the bay temp allowing the showers to thicken once they approach the Bay and move over it thats my understanding of it anyway

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Johnno on Tue Oct 06, 2009 4:36 pm

Yes bad news I've still had 1mm the good news is the Tasmania block is no where near as pronounced as mentioned due to the steering of the upper low

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Tue Oct 06, 2009 4:37 pm

Has been teeming down up here for the last 30 minutes - another 5mm so far and still raining - so event on about 14mm. Haven't spotted any sleet but expect it is sleet and getting close to wet snow up at Dunns Hill/Mt Dandenong ATM.

The showery wrap-around bands are really pushing in quickly now from the southeast with the next one not far behind. They seem to be further west than the models suggested Question Could do OK out of this after all.

BTW radar suggests the coldest air is just west of Melbourne so the southeasterlies are upsliding which is why we currently have the wrap around bands developing in east central areas. A very slight change in the wind could switch the rain off.

PS Johnno - you are correct - the convective showers tend to prefer the land or bay depending on which is warmer.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  dagget on Tue Oct 06, 2009 4:48 pm

Lovely hail shower over us now, got cold too as it approached down to 5.5C..

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Dane on Tue Oct 06, 2009 5:47 pm

Not much here today no hail or thunder, just 2.4mm's to 9am and only 0.6mm's since. Sad

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Oct 06, 2009 5:57 pm

6mm today with heavy showers since 6pm. I was in Boronia earlier and it belted for good half hour.

Sister in Monbulk has had 13mm today with over ten hail showers. Impressive!!!
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Oct 06, 2009 6:17 pm

Can't believe that shower complex split right around me. Likely to be good falls everywhere out of that except for the few km around my house that only got about a minute of it. Rolling Eyes

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  dagget on Tue Oct 06, 2009 6:30 pm

Looks like more coming from the south though, definatley not over just yet

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Oct 06, 2009 7:07 pm

Flow atm is too SE so favouring areas just to the west of here and outside the metro area around Geelong to Werribee. Always the problem surrounding these stream showers. Looks like the cold bay isn't causing a problem at all with a classic Se wind bias west of the bay for showers but the trajectory always will favour one particular area. Could be some big falls tonight around Blackwood/Trentham and Werribee to Geelong.

Also looking further ahead, notice the latest GFS is tracking another upper cold pool over us Friday-Sunday in NE airflow. Could be a very stormy weekend, one to watch.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  dagget on Tue Oct 06, 2009 7:15 pm

We are just getting the edge of it here most blowing to the west, not complaining, thought we would get nothing much at all..as is usual fo us..

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Proteous on Tue Oct 06, 2009 7:37 pm

Rain started at about 2.00pm and currently have 21mm in the guage. Still raining and the magical "inch" is looking good.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Oct 06, 2009 7:48 pm

Can't take a trick here, watching the best SE stream of showers you'll ever see missing here by literally 5km or so, although latest radar loop shows it may be extending further eastwards slightly. Just got 10 seconds of a heavy shower with some hail which just rubs in the fact I'm just off the edge of it. Places under that stream could be looking at 10mm+ overnight and I wouldn't be surprised if the Trentham area didn't see a covering of snow by first thing tomorrow.

Also, the summit area of Mount Macedon is just 5km off getting a 5-10cm dumping of snow. 4.2C here would correspond to around 1C at the top of the mountain and under vigorous showers it would probably be closer to 0C. Extraordinarily frustrating thing the weather sometimes. Evil or Very Mad


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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  AUSSKY on Tue Oct 06, 2009 7:51 pm

There were a couple of snow showers during the afternoon (Clyve got photos to prove it) , the one around 5pm settled briefly - since then it's been graupel, a few flakes and some sleet.....it's 'warmed' up to 2.7C after getting down to 2.2C in a shower 2 hours ago.....won't have a covering tonight....but I'd be delighted to be proven wrong bounce I've had 7mm, Clyve's had 8.4mm.
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Oct 06, 2009 7:54 pm

Like I said yesterday - this system was going to frustrate.

Looking like I'll finish with 14mm for the event.
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Oct 06, 2009 7:56 pm

One of the rare occasions I wished I lived in Melton for weather related reasons. Laughing

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  AUSSKY on Tue Oct 06, 2009 8:00 pm

Looking at the radar - I'm not going to get to bed for a while...there's a large shower area heading this way!!
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

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