Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Oct 06, 2009 8:56 pm

Finally got a bit of the stream, very thick rainfall can hardly hear it on the roof but it is still rather heavy. 3.7C, easily cold enough for snow up the top.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Wed Oct 07, 2009 4:01 am

11.6mm in the end so the event total is 19mm. Almost to the predicted 20mm Very Happy . Suspect we got a little sleet around 2am as the temperature dropped sharply to 3C and must have been heaps of sleet and wet snow around Dunns Hill and the tops of Mt Dandy (would not expect much settling).

Looks like another burst for the western plains this morning - this weather sits on a trough in the southeasterlies which is actually moving SE to NW (don't see that very often!).

Should see a bit of convection as the day goes on, but the low levels are likely to be pretty dry today in central/western areas so don't expect a lot - still anything that gets going will have hail and also sleet/snow to pretty low levels with 850Ts near -3C.

Some fantastic falls out east with lots of 40 to 60mm falls around Orbost and it is still raining.

There were a couple of snow showers during the afternoon (Clyve got photos to prove it)
Jane I saw some sleet yesterday (and perhaps snow - couldn't make it out clear enough) at very mild surface temperatures around 5C. We had very steep lapse rates yesterday (spring sunshine spiking the near surface air much higher than the air mass temperature above the surface). The lowest sleet I saw around 400m on the below Sherbrooke.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Johnno on Wed Oct 07, 2009 4:10 am

Glad you got some DJ and great falls out East. 1mm here which is a shocker given the set up for this region been extremely unlucky. NEXT system I guess.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Oct 07, 2009 4:16 am

Just one more mm here overnight. ~15mm here thanks to the hailstorm yesterday kicking the total along.

Now to watch the weekend for an upper disturbance...
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Alexia on Wed Oct 07, 2009 4:25 am

13 mm rain for us yesterday and last night.Hail still lying in the bush from the day before yesterday. 26mm for Oct so far.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  firestorm on Wed Oct 07, 2009 4:44 am

i wake upto the sound of rain and then look at the guage and 12mm over night was not expecting that at all and currently rainning Very Happy 17.2mm thus far i think will get 20mm after this pretty decent shower.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Melbourne Skywalker on Wed Oct 07, 2009 5:26 am

Morning all, about 6mm recorded at home during the past 24 hours (forgot to check gauge). A nice stream of showers in the outer west this morning, drove through some of it on my way into work. Narrowly avoided being slammed by a massive downpour (with hail) around 7.30pm last night while walking the dog. It seemed to skirt around towards the west of us right through the middle of Caroline Springs & Rockbank. Most of the activity seems to be heading towards the very outer western suburbs.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Luken on Wed Oct 07, 2009 5:50 am

Just got up and looked out the window to a beautiful sunny (cold) morning. But then looked at the radar, and was plesently surprised by the stream over the western burbs. Bad luck again Johnoo, but happy for the others.

Great falls out east around the Thompson catchments yet again. Be very interesting to see the end of week dam figures.
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Oct 07, 2009 7:10 am

Very convective sky presently with showers developing towards the Bass Coast and over land areas. Might suprise today.
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Wed Oct 07, 2009 7:22 am

Karl Lijnders wrote:Very convective sky presently with showers developing towards the Bass Coast and over land areas. Might suprise today.

Do you think Melb will get much?

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Wed Oct 07, 2009 4:11 pm

Another 4.2mm in the gauge for overnight and this morning. 14.7mm all up for the system, have to be happy with that given that the models tried to block us out and downgraded heaps.

Interesting to see, despite the air mass being genuinely cold the last two days the temp in Melbourne has spiked up to 16C on both days, 2C higher than the forecast max. The sun is definitely starting to pick up intensity and the urban heat island effect is starting to become a factor as well IMO with greater solar radiation radiating out from the concrete jungle.

The cold pool in the uppers and lower levels hangs around for the next several days with a large high moving in, so settled conditions right through to Monday but the potential for severe frosts inland.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Luken on Wed Oct 07, 2009 4:33 pm

Not looking forward to those frosts.
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Wed Oct 07, 2009 4:39 pm

A pretty unexciting day of weather up here. Got one shower just before lunch but otherwise was mostly sunny and felt warm in the spring sunshine (despite a max of just 11.1C).

Still some good falls out east with a few 10-20mm falls and still showers falling.

Will be cold tonight - could well be our coldest night of the year up here.

Looks like Thursday/Friday are more of the same - just the odd shower with cold uppers providing instability but a big high & low dewpoints pushing the other way.

PS looks like a switch back to westerlies next week with more solid fronts Very Happy

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  AUSSKY on Wed Oct 07, 2009 5:16 pm

3.5C already here - have clothed the plants that I planted Sunday with tree guards and held off planting 3 others till the weekend....here's hoping they've taken enough...I'm thinking of going out and throwing a sheet over the big grevillea that is too big for a tree guard.....

in the time it's taken to type this email - it's now 3.4C...and 10 minutes later it's hit 3.2C...at this rate it's dropping 1.2C per hour - by midnight it will be -1C!!!!!
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Oct 08, 2009 4:21 am

Icy conditions here with a shower about with temps near 2C. Might get some sleet here.

Should get better as the day progresses.

EC looks very wet next week
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  AUSSKY on Thu Oct 08, 2009 4:27 am

Delighted that it isn't turning out to be a hot, dry spring.......I love this changeable, tempting weather!!
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Oct 08, 2009 4:40 am

It's wonderful!!! My tulips are all out for the first time in October in 3 years!!!
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Thu Oct 08, 2009 4:44 am

0.2mm more overnight from a shower around 2am so 1.1mm for the last 24 hours. Expect about the same again and tomorrow. Event total is 19.9mm (only 0.1mm to the predicted 20mm).

BTW it's a fairly balmy 5C up here so no sleet Karl - unless the flakes drop like lead through the warmer layer 400m above your house Razz

BTW good to see falls still accumulating in the far east and to the west of Melbourne.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Oct 08, 2009 5:01 am

Look I have lived here 25yrs and I have seen a lot here!! Wink. Just showers here overnight - 1.6mm to 8am
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Thu Oct 08, 2009 10:43 am

went to Mansfield for the night, no rain and nothing noted here on weather station either.
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Thu Oct 08, 2009 4:08 pm

Nothing in the rain gauge here. A fine day with light southerly winds, partly cloudy. On to the next system.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Thu Oct 08, 2009 6:12 pm

Another 1.7mm this morning, 16.4mm event total. Showers seem to be developing here in the early mornings after mostly fine overnight. Went through one on the train around 7:15am at Riddells Creek/Clarkfield area. Very cold this morning waiting for the train. 3C with humid air and fresh winds, wind chill was atrocious.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sat Oct 10, 2009 10:14 am

As long as this thread is still open it is worth commenting on the convection today. The upper cold pool is still in place and we have warmer surface temperatures today and there is some very crisp low level Cu developing. Doubt it will develop into anything although there is a chance for the Wimmera and Mallee districts.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  floydlove on Sat Oct 10, 2009 11:04 am

Not much to report here, 6mm for the week. In contrast, Mallacoota received 73.6mm for the week so some good falls for East Gippsland. Must be looking really nice up there. Loving the cooler weather by the way, and another cool week to follow. Smile

Can't see a reason to complain, less evaporation, more run off and a nice sunny weekend.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

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