Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Page 3 of 7 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Johnno on Mon Oct 05, 2009 9:33 am

Just a thought guys mabye this title should be renamed to Cold outbreak rather than Thunderstorm outbreak?

Johnno

Posts : 741
Join date : 2009-05-18
Age : 39
Location : Near the Showgrounds

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  AmaroK on Mon Oct 05, 2009 9:39 am

haha, you lost any hope for tomorrow there Johnno? I still think there is a little hope. Will be isolated tho perhaps around the north central and western areas, but for the most part missing metro areas. LI forecats are around 2 from what info i have, so definitely not ideal conditions.

Looks like temps going backwards here now. Small bands of light rain starting to show up on the radar, fair to say we'll get some very light short showers this arvo.


Last edited by AmaroK on Mon Oct 05, 2009 10:29 am; edited 1 time in total

AmaroK

Posts : 159
Join date : 2009-06-23
Age : 34
Location : Rowville

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Oct 05, 2009 10:18 am

ILS, I suspect activity storm wise to be confined to the ranges to the east.

Melbourne should see a few showers increase this afternoon.

Karl Lijnders

Posts : 1472
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 32
Location : Knoxfield, Victoria

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  mick on Mon Oct 05, 2009 11:00 am

Was a nice sunrise after I got up in the dark thanks to daylight shortening. Sun came out an hour ago, lil bit unstable had a few spits of rain, but the wind is too cool for much to happen IMO. The ants say good rain this week.

mick

Posts : 149
Join date : 2009-06-30
Location : down the bay

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Mon Oct 05, 2009 11:01 am

There are some quite nice looking clouds outside now. Wouldn't be surprised to get a brief downpour or two.

I_Love_Storms

Posts : 445
Join date : 2009-08-06
Location : Lilydale

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  AmaroK on Mon Oct 05, 2009 12:24 pm

Looks like what little rain that is out there is going to struggle to get any further south with the bay drying it up. Would be nice to see a few showers out this way, but only giving it a 15% chance at this point. Even tomorrow is looking dryer and dryer by the hour. I think you will be on the money for your prediction tomorrow Karl.

AmaroK

Posts : 159
Join date : 2009-06-23
Age : 34
Location : Rowville

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Mon Oct 05, 2009 1:52 pm

Models took this system hard, and I always though the better rainfall would be the eastern/northeast part of the state. Nevertheless, this morning with the front, it remained dry, though very low cloud, and as expected, isolated thunderstorms through eastern areas with the front.

For tomorrow regarding thunderstorm activity, I would suggest cold-air type possible across the eastern half of the state mostly, particularly the southeast, but other southern areas may get a rogue strike, but not keeping my hopes up.

Late in the runs looks more interesting for thunderstorms, but way too far out to speculate.

Power Storm

Posts : 703
Join date : 2009-05-18
Age : 23
Location : Simpson South

http://www.australianweathernow.yolasite.com

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Mon Oct 05, 2009 2:24 pm

0.4mm up here today from a few light showers. Otherwise pretty uneventful - though a noticeable chill in the air when the sun goes in.

Some nice crisp Cu this afternoon but nothing from them.

Some of the cells around Macedon have quite a thundery look to them - wouldn't be surprised to see a little small hail etc with them.

Showers should increase the next 12 hours - and could get quite heavy for central through eastern areas (though with a few duds in a row you never quite know).

hillybilly

Posts : 742
Join date : 2009-05-18
Location : Ferny Creek

http://www.bom.gov.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Alexia on Mon Oct 05, 2009 2:36 pm

We are in the middle of a thunderstorm and hail size of marbles the roads covered.Had 3.5 mm rain at around 1530hrs.

Alexia

Posts : 44
Join date : 2009-06-13
Location : Corryong

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Oct 05, 2009 3:57 pm

Well, this is a turn up. Isolated patch of rain right over the top of me extending through the ranges in what looks like some localised convergence between SE winds and SW. It's been raining now for at least half an hour (since I got home although roads were already wet) and all of a sudden some more solid, heavier rain has commenced. A real turn up, wasn't expecting much at all from today but fascinating to see this isolated patch here.

droughtbreaker

Posts : 640
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 35
Location : Mount Macedon (520m asl)

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Mon Oct 05, 2009 4:12 pm

Some locally heavy showers here too for the past 30 mins with the SW airflow.

Power Storm

Posts : 703
Join date : 2009-05-18
Age : 23
Location : Simpson South

http://www.australianweathernow.yolasite.com

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Oct 05, 2009 4:15 pm

4mm here so far, still raining steadily, would be nice to pick up another 2 to 3mm.

droughtbreaker

Posts : 640
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 35
Location : Mount Macedon (520m asl)

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  dagget on Mon Oct 05, 2009 4:23 pm

Just over 2.5mm here so far, nice steady rain right now hope it continues.

dagget

Posts : 160
Join date : 2009-06-30
Age : 44
Location : Woodend

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Dane on Mon Oct 05, 2009 5:26 pm

Not really expecting too much rain here in the next few days maybe 5 to 10mm's. With the airstream coming from the SSE the Melbourne area could come under Tassies rain shadow which has happened before and we may just get isolated showers here.

Dane

Posts : 91
Join date : 2009-05-18
Age : 65
Location : Cranbourne

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Johnno on Mon Oct 05, 2009 5:35 pm

Just off the topic abit hope you don't mind guys.. Does Northern Tasmania come under the raindshadow too in Strong northerly winds due to Victoria? Just seems to be everytime they get rain from the North there it does well but when we get rain from the South to SE we don't any explanation for that?

Johnno

Posts : 741
Join date : 2009-05-18
Age : 39
Location : Near the Showgrounds

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Alexia on Mon Oct 05, 2009 5:38 pm

Total for today 10mm rain

Alexia

Posts : 44
Join date : 2009-06-13
Location : Corryong

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Oct 05, 2009 5:45 pm

I guess the northerly would pick up extra surface moisture from Bass Strait. The rain shadow effect over Melbourne and south central VIC is only really a localised phenomena. Often, as DJ has mentioned at times, the Dandenongs pick up a little on the rainband in the northerly despite Melbourne metro being shadowed out so this shows that the effect is not a widespread thing. Tasmania however is a large mountainous island so in SE winds it will have a much larger effect on the moisture available further upstream.

With the SE Tasmanian block it is very hard to predict exactly if and when this will come into play. It often has to do with small differences in the wind direction and also the trajectory (the path of the airflow along it's entire journey before it reaches here). GFS and LAPS/MLAPS seems to show the block for Wednesday in the latest run and also Tuesday to an extent but I still wouldn't rule out a shower stream for the western suburbs and west central ranges on Wednesday and some heavier falls in the same areas on Tuesday.

droughtbreaker

Posts : 640
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 35
Location : Mount Macedon (520m asl)

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Johnno on Mon Oct 05, 2009 5:52 pm

Yeah I was more or less thinking the Alps in Vic Andrew comparing that to the mountains of Tasmania always thought the Vic alps were higher than the Tassie Mountains or am I wrong?

Johnno

Posts : 741
Join date : 2009-05-18
Age : 39
Location : Near the Showgrounds

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Oct 05, 2009 5:57 pm

Yeah, Victorian Alps are higher and larger area as well. Tasmania is mostly in the 700m-1000m range with their mountains but some as high as 1600m+. Probably one for David or others who know a bit more but perhaps Bass Strait has some effect in building up more moisture for NE TAS. 400km of water I think between TAS and VIC.

droughtbreaker

Posts : 640
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 35
Location : Mount Macedon (520m asl)

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  AUSSKY on Mon Oct 05, 2009 7:14 pm

Clyve reported hail this afternoon (small) and when I was coming home, it started raining lightly before Gisborne, was very heavy around the Woodend / Macedon exit, drizzled on and off to East Trentham (round through Ashbourne) and virtually dry in my street (0.2mm just after 4pm).

Looking forward to no sleep with lots of sleet and snowflakes tomorrow night......

AUSSKY

Posts : 89
Join date : 2009-05-18
Location : Trentham, 705m ASL / Abbotsford by day 40m ASL

http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Oct 05, 2009 7:48 pm

4.8mm here in the end. Very happy with that as the models have backed right off on this coming system in general and there was quite a bit of luck involved in getting the rain tonight.

droughtbreaker

Posts : 640
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 35
Location : Mount Macedon (520m asl)

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  lightnin on Mon Oct 05, 2009 8:08 pm

No sign of rain of any significance here today.. a couple of spots now and again but never looked like it was going to rain. Surprised to read those totals.. what is likely to happen tonight and tomorrow?

lightnin

Posts : 20
Join date : 2009-06-13
Location : West of Geelong

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Oct 05, 2009 8:51 pm

Don't want to mozz it but with some decent cold air moving in to the uppers and lowers and an airstream tending straight southerly should be quite a few showers around for all central areas and some heavy ones too probably. Can't see any rain areas or anything more widespread but most places should pick up a few decent showers, local hail likely too.

droughtbreaker

Posts : 640
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 35
Location : Mount Macedon (520m asl)

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Mon Oct 05, 2009 11:45 pm

1.5mm here since ~ 1.15am.
Have noticed a few times this web site doesnt work also, I presume I would not be the only one this happening too.?

Australis(Shell3155)

Posts : 166
Join date : 2009-06-12
Location : Boronia

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Bobman on Tue Oct 06, 2009 12:03 am

Some showers here since about 1am with another patch about to pass through soon with slightly heavier falls. Still quite scattered though and coming from the south-west.

Yeah, I noticed this site was down the other night for a few hours but then a page came up saying "routing maintenance". Has been alright since.

Bobman

Posts : 118
Join date : 2009-09-12
Age : 32
Location : Moorabbin

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 3 of 7 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum