Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Tue Oct 06, 2009 12:48 am

Trajectory is Sw/Ne atm and we have already had some good showers at 2.30am...now there is a nice heavy band just coming up through the bay, which i will be driving staright into shortly on my way to work...looks like it may go more Southerly later which puts Eastern areas out of the picture..
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Oct 06, 2009 3:45 am

Up to 6.1mm now. Temperature at 4.8C so the cold air is moving in rapidly. Waiting for the airstream to go more southerly here for my area and most of Melbourne to pick up more showers. The current wind trajectory is not ideal yet for these areas.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Oct 06, 2009 4:17 am

7mm here to 7am. Looks unstable. Be interesting to see what a bit of heating does.
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Lily on Tue Oct 06, 2009 4:20 am

Good morning Smile 6.5mm here overnight.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Tue Oct 06, 2009 4:21 am

5.5mm compared to Karls.. Grrr, 7mm
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  firestorm on Tue Oct 06, 2009 4:37 am

5.2mm during the night Smile . Some nice cloud formations outside atm looks like some heavy showers/hail and if were lucky a few rumbles.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Oct 06, 2009 5:32 am

Looks like to flow will go SSE and I sense a TAS block developing for us. Things are not super mobile so things need to develop on the land this afternoon.

Looks like widespread showers along the surf coast and western ranges west of Macedon.
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Sniper on Tue Oct 06, 2009 6:18 am

Nice big Cb over the bay at the moment. Which is nicely depicted on radar as well.

Could be an interesting day!!!

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Luken on Tue Oct 06, 2009 6:26 am

8.5mm overnight. Nice drop. As others have said be interesting to see what a bit of heating does over the day. Be nice to pickup another 5mm.
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Tue Oct 06, 2009 6:37 am

Handy 7mm up here overnight - wasn't expecting much - so a welcome surprise.

There is a sharp trough lying back through Bass Strait ATM which should move up into central/eastern Vic during the afternoon (with winds shifting from SW to SE). Should see some heavy showers - EC for example has 10mm+ in the few hours around the wind change. Also some thunder and hail. The satellite picture has cloud moving rapidly towards Vic from the southeast so could be a short lived wrap showery/rainy band near the trough.

Anticipate we will get a bit of sleet today in the Dandenong when the change zips through - tonight could see fairly low snow but the air mass for us is drying out by then.


Does Northern Tasmania come under the raindshadow too in Strong northerly winds due to Victoria?
Johnno it must have an effect but I suspect its pretty marginal. True northerlies are pretty rare, and the distance between our ranges and northern Tassie is quite large. Also, northerlies are almost always upsliding/rising so cloud/rain quickly reforms. Bass Strait is also a source of some moisture.

In contrast southerlies are usually subsiding and dry. Strip out a small amount of moisture and they can easily switch from being convectively unstable to stable.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Oct 06, 2009 6:44 am

Amazing hail storm to my west and north. Anvil is huge and a nice roll cloud under.

SC may have caught that.

Hmmm I would hope that activity develops this afternoon. Lots of towers presently.
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Pengaz on Tue Oct 06, 2009 6:47 am

Yeah same here Karl-little ripper cell just skirted to the west of us here in Clayton-big anvil visible and some lowerings towards the front but my view was obsucred by Menzies building. An abundance of instability about this morning, should be good for some localised heavy dumps as the day grows older.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Oct 06, 2009 7:13 am

Hey Matt Smile

Was a stunning cell, looked almost summery. Deep convection overhead should firm showers as that moves north.

One thing I love about the Menzies building is the view!!! Used to do all my assignments on the top floor facing south. One thing I don't miss though is being on the northern side in the middle of a northerly gale. Knocked me off my feet!!!
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  AmaroK on Tue Oct 06, 2009 7:15 am

Well radar looking a little interesting early on today, looks like some good falls over very tiny areas, not quite what i want, but lets hope it builds on this. Will be out from work early today, so looking forward to any potential light shows.
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Greg Sorenson on Tue Oct 06, 2009 7:23 am

small hail here atm in moonee ponds.
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Tue Oct 06, 2009 7:47 am

Nothing much to report up here this morning. Just watching the Cu slowly boil away waiting for the trough to move up. Had a few spits but nothing icy.

One thing that is interesting about this cold outbreak is the slow movement on the cells - they are only moving at ~40km/hr. Means that even small cells could drop some decent totals.

BTW some impressive snowfalls starting to accumulate at the resorts - http://ski.com.au/snowcams/australia/vic/bawbaw/bawbaw6.html . Obs at Baw Baw suggest about 20cm of snow so far. Seems like there will be more snow this year out of the ski season than in the season Shocked

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Proteous on Tue Oct 06, 2009 8:11 am

Light rain started here, radar looks quite good for this area with notable thickening of the showers to more like rain areas. Temp. 11.8, SSW @20km/h

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  brayden on Tue Oct 06, 2009 8:13 am

We had small hail about 20mins ago, 5mm for bigger bits. Great view here in the comp. room with windows looking from the W to the SE. Bring on more hail, hopefully 10mm this time Wink

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Greg Sorenson on Tue Oct 06, 2009 8:20 am

Next line is approaching from the sw, will cop just the easterly tip probably with small hail in the next 10 mins, but does look darker to the further west. Fibrous anvil, big coldie look to it.
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Melbourne Skywalker on Tue Oct 06, 2009 8:26 am

Thunder here in Sunshine Shocked

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  AmaroK on Tue Oct 06, 2009 8:28 am

No thunder hail or rain here in bayswater, in fact, we have some nice sunshine at the moment. Great view of cloud structures around us tho. Hope we get a little more action later in the day.
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Greg Sorenson on Tue Oct 06, 2009 8:48 am

crashed and burned, lol, fell apart.
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  Sniper on Tue Oct 06, 2009 9:08 am

Bom TS Forecast looks promising!!


THUNDERSTORM FORECAST

Issued at 11:36 am Tuesday, 6 October 2009,
Valid until midnight on Tuesday, 6 October 2009.


Widespread "cold-air" thunderstorms are expected today in most areas apart from
the far west. Small hail is likely and strong winds are possible.


TS Forecast 6/10/09" alt="" />

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  AmaroK on Tue Oct 06, 2009 9:09 am

Just had a short 2 min shower of hail. Nothing major, and fairly light, but was nice to watch. Cloud cover is very patchy here, so looks like it will be very on and off until later this arvo.
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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Tue Oct 06, 2009 9:10 am

Amazing to see that Melbourne Ap has been colder than Dunns Hill during the last hour. Shows there is a lot of hail/cold air coming down with those showers. Obs suggest snow flurries to about 800m ATM.

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Re: Victoria: (Possible) Low Pressure System and Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 4th-9th 2009

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