Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

I agree Mutley seems to be the way its going

I have been hearing non-stop thunder here for the past hour. Not bad, although not too much rain to report.

Looking forward to being woken up throughout the night hopefully with heavy rain and big wind gusts

Looking good for the east central and gippsland ranges. Should see 15-20mm our here to 9am. Similar totals over the next few days.

Definitely looks like a wet night for the exposed coasts, Otways, Surf Coast and Southern Gippsland.
Currently sitting on 3.2mm. Will be v/happy to get to 8mm by sunrise.

i doubt you are hearing thunder if you are in lilydale as your profile says, there is no lightning or thunder occuring anywhere in the suburbs or indeed probably the whole state right now, nothing being picked up on radio, trackers, etc, i think your hearing something else

James wrote:i doubt you are hearing thunder if you are in lilydale as your profile says, there is no lightning or thunder occuring anywhere in the suburbs or indeed probably the whole state right now, nothing being picked up on radio, trackers, etc, i think your hearing something else

Hmm..maybe, haha, that's fair enough then, I will believe you. Not sure what it is? Maybe the drummer next door

I would tend to agree James. I think it could be air traffic.

Anyhow heavier slow rain movng up...

Even if there was it would only be the odd very isolated rumble with mostly Cc lightning from this sort of activity. Flow turning westerly and soon to be SW so focus for rainfall shifts south and east for the next 36 hrs.

16.8mm now for the day, some of that (around 3mm) was before 9am by the looks of things. Blue Mountain (south of Trentham) is up to 28mm now since sunrise which is rather impressive.

Looks as though the Thomson dam will be getting some nice flows.

Torrential rain and 1cm hail along the Calder this evening around 6.30pm - couldn't see the mountain it was so heavy and traffic slowed to 60kmh!!! up to 20.2mm so far since midnight - a couple of long and very heavy showers tonight added significantly to the total...one of the creeks in town (with a cutesy little bridge over it that runs along the front of a house) is just at the top of its banks...I think they need to move their cars out onto the potholed road (result of so much rain). Swale drains in my street all have water in them - I'd like to see them full to the top!!

daggett - you haven't been buying land have you?? No 6 sold...

looks like there is still a few decent patches in the western regions. Hope some of them continue moving east over night. could use a little more rain on my garden. scoresby aws recorded 6.6mm since 9am which is suprising considering it normally under reads, but surrounding areas seemed to only get 4-5mm. Thinking this weekend im am investing in some rain gages, one for work and one for home.

Currently raining again!! Love it - up to 23.4mm for the event, Clyve up to 24.4mm for the same period.

Getting a bit of the same shower and it is nice and slow moving so another mm or 2 hopefully. Quite a bit of shower activity building in the S'westerlies so maybe even a few more mm after this.

1.5mm recorded here since 7am yesterday, another ordinary system for this area. Only had wind and the odd shower or two & nothing else. I'm pretty much over this uneventful windy rubbish. Bring on the warmer weather!

We just let a sonde off about 30 mins ago and the sounding so far looks pretty good! Plenty of moisture all the way up to about 500hpa with a nice little dry slot at around 700. I'm guessing that means there could potentially be some heavy showers around this morning and with the 500 temp at -27 i'm sure that could mean some small hail around the place with any of the higher intensity showers!

Had 7mm all up for this system so as I thought, had more punch from the SW than from the N-NW, really could'nt see getting alot here after Tue arvo. Some nice falls around which is great. Anyway onto some warmer weather next week by the looks. Bout time.

Rhino.

Scrapped 10mm to 6am this morning, and another 3mm in the heavy band just past so up to 17mm for the "event". Not great but it is still falling and more to come so should end up with a reasonable event total.

Was up at Mt Dandenong when the heavy showers hit at 8am. Was mostly rain but some heavy wet sleet mixed in a few times. Would suspect snow falling to about 800-900m under the heaviest of the showers.

Really don't know about today. There is a nice area of heavy showers/rain rapidly approaching central Vic/Gippsland on the back of the low - but - the flow is a little too westerly at Melbourne latitudes. Anticipate nice heavy rain along the east central coast into south Gippy and Melbourne's catchments, but the eastern burbs are touch and go (could be very good or very frustrating).

BTW some fantastic falls in the northeast - plenty of 30mm+ falls with Mt Buffalo the top on 78mm and Cestnut on 52mm.

Tomorrow looks the wettest day for us with a nice could pool coming right over the top with a sharp surface trough

Juicy band tracking towards the both the Bellarine and Mornington Penninsula and outer south eastern suburbs.

GFS still pointing towards some -1 & -2 LI's tomorrow arvo. As DJ mentioned, looks to be the pick of the bunch tomorrow!!

Had a very nice shower this morning around 7:30 dumped a bit of rain on the Lysterfield area. Very dark and grey here in bayswater at the moment.

That band over the cost is looking very nice for some good falls. Although with the bay there, may break up a little and miss a few people.

Not sure which models you guys are looking at, but sadly all the figures i have are showing LI's for melbourne at between 0-5 for the next 48 hours.

Jason, you are right mate. GFS Stormcast is pointing to -2 around Kilmore area, which is not far for those interested. There is enough instability to have a chance in Melbourne but it will be similar to the last few days. Certainly not a spring storm outbreak.

That incoming rainband has a nice SW to NE trajectory. Very promising IMO for Eastern Suburbs later this morning...

Although with the bay there, may break up a little and miss a few people.

The Bay has warmed up to be the same temperature as Bass Strait so is now starting to work for Melbourne and east central areas (http://www.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au/~awatkins/temps.html). Is starting to look very promising...

Thanks for that info HB, that is a very useful link. Band is definitely thickening up, could be some good falls coming our way. Very glad i don't have to be out on the road today.

Temperature is just above 12 here at the moment, very cool, with enough of a breeze to make you really want a jacket. Suspect they will pickup in the next 2 hours.

Gee, that radar is looking very promising, lots of yellow etc...10-20mm maybe in the next few hours!!

ILS, I suspect it will be similar to last night. Radar over-estimating. Anything over 5mm will be a bonus before tomorrow!