Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Oct 11, 2009 8:36 am

Cu has just started to bubble away to the near SW. Temperature here is only 14C with 18C to 19C in Melbourne near to sea level. Moisture levels are on the rise inland. Not even midday yet and with daylight savings it is only actually 10:30am so plenty more heating to come. I'd be looking at mid 20s in Melbourne today, somewhere around 23C-25C and around 20C here at 520m asl. Seeing the forecast is only 22C today in Melbourne the models might be underestimating temps a bit and the lapse rates between the lower and upper atmosphere could well be steeper than predicted. Keep watching today could be very interesting.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  AUSSKY on Sun Oct 11, 2009 9:00 am

Looks like there is a cell around Mt Macedon from here... and then it runs back to the SW in a line driven by the low to the NE - an interesting day ahead - we watched Cu bubble away yesterday overhead and try very hard.......atmosphere hasn't changed a great deal since yesterday...
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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  SC on Sun Oct 11, 2009 9:15 am

Alot of Cu has been building in the last hour here. I just did a re-plot of the Melb Airport sounding with 21C and DP 7.1 and it came up with Li of -2.46.
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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  James on Sun Oct 11, 2009 9:24 am

looking real unstable out there, from nothing to lots of convection in an hour, wont be long now.....

i thought it had that feeling in the air this morning

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Sun Oct 11, 2009 9:35 am

Latest Viz image shows a nice area of Cu all the way back to Colac. The sounding this morning is very unstable from the surface to about 10,000 feet with a dry adibatic lapse rate. It's pretty dry in the low levels, but any Cu that get going will race up to about 20,000 feet.

I can't see the storms/showers being particularly heavy, but they should look visually nice with the very clear air. Also should have some small hail in them.

The radar will be well worth watching...

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Madmel on Sun Oct 11, 2009 9:45 am

From observations here, convection starting nicely and starting to drop some rain out of it in my NE. Nice shower curtains showing, should be a interesting arvo

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  mick on Sun Oct 11, 2009 9:47 am

Some light showers over the bay atm from low clouds.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Johnno on Sun Oct 11, 2009 9:48 am

Well here we go the sky is black to my west and the radar supports cells developing over the Western suburbs as they are also developing towards our catchments

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Dez on Sun Oct 11, 2009 9:49 am

A lot of showers starting to develop. Just went under a Cumulus cloud and it was so dark.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Melbourne Skywalker on Sun Oct 11, 2009 10:01 am

Lots of little cells starting to pop up including one here. Just had thunder here 5 minutes ago and some heavy drops.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  NoRelationToNed on Sun Oct 11, 2009 10:03 am

What's that I see? Could we actually have a NW infeed from the northern Indian Ocean with this upcoming system? Been a long time since that's happened. WV map looks very promising.
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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Johnno on Sun Oct 11, 2009 10:10 am

Can see rain curtains now to my West and SW and even to the cells East of Melbourne few rumbles and cc's as well to my WSW

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  samueliza on Sun Oct 11, 2009 10:17 am

very thundery and dark out here. no rain yet though.Yay- never happens here!

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  firestorm on Sun Oct 11, 2009 10:20 am

a mass of convective cloud from west to east quiet amazing and over head is trying hard to get something going but is struggling atm.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  DC449 on Sun Oct 11, 2009 10:26 am

Cmon that cell just come down here.
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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Johnno on Sun Oct 11, 2009 10:27 am

Thomson dam may pick up abit alot of showers some thundery over the area and to its north (where they are coming from)

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  DC449 on Sun Oct 11, 2009 10:27 am

Looks like it is dying :(Typical
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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Madmel on Sun Oct 11, 2009 10:49 am

Temp has dropped about 6.C here with the SE winds. Planes are doing a big U-turn over here to Melbourne Airport so gathering something is happening there

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  James on Sun Oct 11, 2009 11:14 am

light shower from nowhere here, but passing....surprised there isnt any thunder in it yet, or indeed more around yet, but its early still

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Sun Oct 11, 2009 11:30 am

Just had a light shower - drops were tiny so obvious struggling to reach the ground with the low dewpoints.

Not often you see "storms" with DP near 0C and temperatures near 20C. It is a seriously wierd airmass with last weeks cold outbreak wrapping right around the high and now "siting" above rapidly warming low levels.

With such small cells you will have to score a direct hit to get anything worthwhile, though still fun watching it bubble away!

PS Nice cell just going over Coldstream.

PPS just got a roll of thunder from a cell firing up to our south.


Last edited by hillybilly on Sun Oct 11, 2009 11:46 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Oct 11, 2009 11:30 am

There have been some light, spitting showers around here. Most of the activity is south of here in Melbourne metro area, not much happening to the north. Probably the higher temperatures and perhaps better low level moisture available closer to the coasts and bay is helping this. It often happens when there is no sea breeze and still mildish temps at this time of year but warmer at sea level that the Melbourne area can do well. Further east moisture levels should be higher so more widespread activity with higher totals likely.

Next few hours should be interesting as maximum heating is reached.

Drops were fairly large out of the isolated showers around here but just spitting, although we haven't been directly under any cells here and still there has been light rain with a mostly clear sky.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Oct 11, 2009 11:35 am

DPs are still around 4C-6C here going from Redesdale obs and Jane's weather station in Trentham. in the NW suburbs down to Melbourne and also places like Ballarat they have plunged to 0C and lower. Oddly enough the NW suburbs of Melbourne are seeing cells atm despite this and none up here.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Sun Oct 11, 2009 11:56 am

Nice cell exploded just nex to Melb airport...those DPs around the city are a bit suss if we are getting that kinda action up there, although may be the result of a seabreeze...

Want to see things really explode over the next couple of hours. Would love some bolts, heavy hail and some really loud thunder.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Madmel on Sun Oct 11, 2009 11:59 am

Yeah..seems Laverton scored well with a dump of rain with that cell that passed over a while ago. Warming right back up here sitting on 21.C considering it was dwelling on about 13.C earlier LOL NUTS!

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Johnno on Sun Oct 11, 2009 12:04 pm

Well that cell is just NW of me few drops of rain starting here first rain of the day here, that cell may stay North of me but we shall see

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

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