Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Fantastic sky here atm, raining in the sun, everything from jet black to the richest bright blue, white, grey orange and a rainbow!

Apart from the torrential downpour this morning only had a few sprinkles today. Sitting on 14mm MTD so got a big hill to climb to get to our OCT average of 50mm. Certainly a sth of the ranges system. Start sending it up nth of the ranges for a while guys, sounds like it's getting too wet down there.

Rhino.

Nice short burst of hail in Moorabbin just before. Only lasted 2 minutes but it was great.

36mm's this week here from the system, up to a more respectable 42mm's for the month.

Got 3.5mm in a squally front mid arvo, but just a tetch in the few showers that followed. Baro has kicked up from 1003 to 1009 hPa today. We hit 21C at some stage, but cool with persistant SW breeze atm and fairly heavy cloud. Havent had a heavy shower since the front mid arvo, but looking toward "catching up" tomorrow when a more southerly fetch is progged to enhance the rain/shower activity in these parts during the early periods of the day.

Hope so at least. Latrobe R was tame at Rosedale when I went across it midday, however the McAllister is at near minor flood level at Maffra, so Glenmaggie might be releasing more than the 2000 ML/day that I was told last Sat.

22.5mm from the current system in his part of the world. No hail to report today however, a couple of local strikes around 4:30pm to the north of my position. Missed much of the rain after 3pm, however witnessed many showers pass to the north between Berwick North/Beaconsfield and Cardina/Emerald.

Am now down in Sandy Point for a long long weekend . Can report 36mm for the week down here so a handy fall. Was widespread minor flooding on the way down with water standing in paddocks and creeks running very full. The Tarwin River was the highest I've seen it in close to 10 years (though obviously I don't see it every day). Saw hail twice on the way down - at Loch and again near Leongatha.

Good to see the showers kicking on back home... looks like we've had about 10mm since 9am with falls closer to 20mm near Olinda.

Tomorrow looks to me like plenty more showers down here and the Dandenongs though I suspect they will become more drizzly.

Yeah, potentially pretty crook outlook down that way Hillbilly. Hope your not in a tent if you are down there for the bikes!!!

Just looked at the satloop after a headsup from a WZ poster. Although not fully supported by the radar loops, you would swear a surface low has developed S or central W Vic coast, with wrap around cloud heading N towards Mt Gambier.

Maybe its a suck-in, certainly nothing shown on the 5pm BOM surface chart.

But the cloud movement would get me on the edge of the chair if the models had progged a cut-off low for E Vic tomorrow!!! At the very least I can see where the rain progged for central gippsland tomorrow may come from

Must be a lull in the system if BOM is right with forecasted Rain areas.
Mt Gambier show showing some good activity, lets hope another 5mm+ early tomorrow morning.

Just got back up to the farm - 21mm in total for the week!

Well, today's cold front was a bit of a flop really. Just 1.6mm here at 6pm and just a brief although fairly heavy sun shower after that which wouldn't have registered much at all. It was certainly unstable but sometimes, particularly on days where heating of the air mass is not a major factor, that means smaller and more isolated showers all be it very heavy with hail and thunder around. Nothing got organised by the looks of things which is frustrating. Looks like the best activity, as you'd expect with a W/SW airstream, was all east of Melbourne and particularly South Gippsland and, as is par for course, the exposed Otway areas also doing well. 21.2mm here for the entire series of fronts thanks to the initial cold front with the NW flow doing very well for us here.

Tap about to be turned off hard for the next week at least and more than likely some time beyond that. Soil moisture will dry out and catchments will stop flowing. Hopefully this can remedy itself by early November.

Managed to get down to Williamstown after work in the hope of good colour on any cells hanging around at sunset. Was a great display once some rain shafts appeared to create some drama in the scene. Great little spot too, must put it in the memory bank for future night events.

Ripper Shots greg!

More great falls in south Gippsland overnight - up to 34mm at Upper Lang Lang with goods falls towards the Upper Yarra. Must be plenty of paddock flooding etc. Elsewhere, a bit of a dud - again -

Looks to me like a few more mm today but it is now slowly clearing.

Next week looks like mid summer so a huge change coming up.

17mm for the system. 26.5 MTD.
Wondering if any one can give indications of when to start conserving tank water for garden watering over summer period.

INITIAL MINOR FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LATROBE RIVER

Issued at 8:28 AM on Friday the 16th of October 2009
by the Bureau of Meteorology, Victorian Regional Office

Latrobe River catchment recorded rainfall totals of up to 70 mm over the past 5
days. For Friday a further 5 to 15 mm with some isolated higher totals of up to
25 mm are forecast. As a result of rainfall to date significant stream rises have occurred along the Latrobe River and its tributaries. Further rises are possible as a result of forecast rainfall.

Latrobe River downstream of Yallourn:
Southern Rural Water advises that releases from Lake Narracan are steady at
4500ML. The Latrobe River at Thoms Bridge is currently steady at 3.03 metres. Further rises are possible as a result of forecast rainfall, however the river is
expected to stay below the minor flood level.

Rosedale:
The Latrobe River at Rosedale is currently at 3.69 metres (minor flood level 4.0
metres) and rising. The river is expected to reach the minor flood level later
on Friday. Forecast of a peak will be provided once upstream gauges have peaked.

This system is refusing to die!! BOM forecast now changed to Showers throughout the day. Bay effect still in force, with som chunky cells passing the heads dieing off.

GFS looking at falls up to 10mm thru Central areas. Again will be happy with another 5mm.

Hi guys!

Just got back to Australia this morning, and it looks like of course I have missed out on all of the interesting weather in the past five weeks. I must say though, the grass has certainly turned greener here since the last time I saw it. Maybe I should go overseas more often because that looks as though it brings the rain. Looking forward to the storm season ahead!

Been very fortunate to be sitting under some ripper showers this afternoon with one delivering 4mm in 10minutes. 8.2mm since midnight and now over 30mm for the system. Good chance cricket will be cancelled tonight.

looks like some heavy showers out this way at the moment. While it isn't raining here atm, lots of cells are developing, does anyone know if any are thundery?

Just a couple of showers here today. This morning to 9am we had 8.6mm. Yesterday to 9am we had 18.2mm. So this event, past 4 days, we have had 49mm. Very wet down here. Wes, our YTD is at 827.0mm.

Tony, I doubt they would be thundery, but to put it in percentage chance, it would be less than 2% IMO.

Thanks Jake, these little cells of rainfall just seemed quite heavy and I thought maybe i might get a chance to hear a bit of thunder!

The Melbourne radar is interesting atm. A reverse bay effect is happening: convection and showers occurring over land but not in the airstream that has passed over the bay....

Not surprising since land is heating up quicker than water under October sun. Just noticed Bendigo got a short sharp 3mm and a big drop in temp!

Should see showers increase over eastern suburbs tonight.

Had about 24mm for the sequence here so far and hoping for a bit more to get us towards 30mm before we dry out for ~10 days.

It has been an amazing run of weather that the tame quiet weather is going to make it feel very strange!!!

13.4mm for the month,

6.4mm in the last 7 days

3.0mm yesterday

2.6mm today

just thought people may find that interesting

Tony