Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Oct 12, 2009 5:47 am

Welcome Petros.

Fairly unstable skies presently in the mid levels but not much rain hitting the ground. EC ramped up mid week with around 50mm here but has eroded the weekend. I think the weekend coming will be showery.

US also showing good falls.

Watch for showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon ahead of a short wave tomorrow.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Proteous on Mon Oct 12, 2009 5:56 am

A band of cloud moving through here atm with some associated virga so would only expect little if any rain here this morning. I must say that I've been polishing the alumina atop of the roof so that any thunder activity that may develop this afternoon will know where to come. Very Happy

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Rhino on Mon Oct 12, 2009 6:04 am

Loved those rain areas forecast by the BOM, must be going to develop later. Rolling Eyes Anyway might be a storm this arvo but not holding my breath, not a good start to this system around here. Winds will start going SW and we will get stuff all rain and biting cold wind, great. No

Rhino. Smile Smile

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Oct 12, 2009 6:29 am

Don't be too quick to write the system off - potential still for 20-50mm up there. Heating should invigorate the cold air showers and cause then to become more extensive on the ranges.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:08 am

Hi Karl,

What time do you expect the possibility of storms to arise?

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Sniper on Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:09 am

That band was always going to be hit or miss. A nice clearance now til mid afternoon. Fingers crossed the instability lingers to spark something.

Tues/Wed looking good!!!

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Melbourne Skywalker on Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:17 am

Very uneventful morning here, not a drop in sight. Partly cloudy with blue skys.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:24 am

Wow, what a spike in temps!!! 21 degrees at 10.15am!!! Very good for convection I'd be guessing!!!

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Alexia on Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:32 am

Very light rain falling for the last hour. Fog cloud is nearly at the bottom of foothills.Can't beleive this great weather couldn't wish for better.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:50 am

ILS - the convection should develop in the middle layers from 1pm with thundery showers from 2pm. Should get close to 25-26C

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Alexia on Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:20 am

Karl can we expect any thunderstorms? it is rather cold here at present 10C no wind.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:27 am

More likely overnight but moreso tomorrow. Bit of hail about too Alexia.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Greg Sorenson on Mon Oct 12, 2009 9:25 am

Nice bed of accas over head which is a good sign.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  firestorm on Mon Oct 12, 2009 9:42 am

0.6mm this morning round 8am and a few short burst of big drops during the morning sky is looking ominous.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Oct 12, 2009 10:30 am

I think we are not far away from storms and showers to the west. Keep an eye on radar.

There is weak convergence which may supply ample lift. This is presently near Laverton.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Mon Oct 12, 2009 10:34 am

Ive just put the washing out, although Im happy for it to get wet.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Rhino on Mon Oct 12, 2009 11:10 am

Certainly would be good to get those totals Karl. GFS giving us 25mm for next 48 hrs here, which will be incredible if it happens, but will certainly take it. Very Happy Cautiously waiting for next model update.

Rhino. Smile Smile

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Mon Oct 12, 2009 11:19 am

it does feel very humid outside in Camberwell (for melbourne anyway)...feels more like Brisbane October.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  AUSSKY on Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:07 pm

Great line of Cj's stretching form the SE up through the NE suburbs.........I so don't want to be at work!!!!!

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Sniper on Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:14 pm

Raining @ Doncaster East

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:15 pm

Lucky buggers not a drop up here. Mad

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Luken on Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:23 pm

Just a quick downpour of very large drops here. Stopped now.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  James on Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:27 pm

light rain, came home to find the power had been out, looking very thundery and feels very humid out

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Greg Sorenson on Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:32 pm

Gippsland is in an area convergence atm, hence the rapid development of those cells to the se of the city, should see sparks any moment down that way. I don't like the chances of the western burbs.....

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:39 pm

Looks decent...seems like a bit more in them than yesterday

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

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