Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Power Storm on Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:22 pm

Not much change IMO. Still looks thundery from about Tuesday.

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  hillybilly on Sun Oct 18, 2009 5:05 am

Some seriously warm temperatures through WA with a few records approach yesterday (including Perth with 37C). Maybe the odd site record broken and short lived sites. Getting close to records in mid October is pretty extreme...
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/record-heat-for-wa/12926 .

Thankfully this heat will not make it to Vic - the thickness value near Perth made it to (about) 574 yesterday, but it does show the potential heat lurking to our northwest.

Reckon Melbourne is a chance for 30C on Tuesday. Will probably fall just short but might just get there.

EC is still going for a solid rain event across central/eastern Vic late in the week so hopefully some rain still to come. Also has a couple of showers Tuesday night/Wed AM.

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Bobman on Sun Oct 18, 2009 9:38 am

Looks like some speculators on various weather forecast sites might be wrong so far.

Next Friday was tipped to reach 30, but now most forecasts have downgraded it to 20 and even Tuesday has been revised down.

Guess we'll just wait and see as to what eventuates.

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Sun Oct 18, 2009 11:42 am

Bobman wrote:Looks like some speculators on various weather forecast sites might be wrong so far.

Next Friday was tipped to reach 30, but now most forecasts have downgraded it to 20 and even Tuesday has been revised down.

Guess we'll just wait and see as to what eventuates.

Remember the day in September when they forecast say 24, and it got to 30? Lot of fires etc up north as well at the moment so there is a lot of hot dry air that may make its way down. Wouldn't be surprised to see a relatively hot one on Friday.

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Oct 18, 2009 1:29 pm

Yeah, the hot air is there through the interior, but the thing now is that models aren't going for the right setup to drag it down here. Initially GFS had a big blocking pattern with constant NW winds and a very major heatwave for us but EC never wanted a bar of it. Now we have GFS and EC both settled on a mobile pattern with large highs but moving through rather quickly with frequent cool changes and no real NW days.

Latest GFS (00Z) has downgraded substantially again. Every run in the past day or so seems to have downgraded so obviously the models were too keen to begin with. Of course as I say in almost every post (as a disclaimer of sorts), things can still change. At the current moment though I'll have to go with what the models and BOM are saying and that's for a mild to warm week with temps in the low to mid twenties with a high 20s day or two chucked in. Air mass becomes increasingly humid towards the end of the week and the weekend looks potentially showery or maybe a period of rain.

If we get the rain next weekend then this will be a perfect week really and standard late October weather, particularly after all the cool weather we have had.

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Johnno on Sun Oct 18, 2009 1:37 pm

And if we don't it is back to the drawing board and we just have to put down the past 6 weeks to luck I guess similar to November and 1st half of December last year but by next weekend we will know

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Oct 18, 2009 1:58 pm

There's still another week left of the month after next weekend though so anything can happen. What we are seeing now is basically a transition to the late Spring/Summer pattern where the fronts start to become less frequent and intense and we start to rely more on inland troughs and lows with tropical moisture. As we get into Summer very little rain comes from the westerlies as they contract south of the continent and are replaced by the subtropical high ridge. We get more rain coming down from the tropics or storms firing along an inland trough etc.

Unfortunately, it is highly unlikely we are going to continue to get month after month of LWT after LWT coming through with strong fronts, particularly at this time of year, i.e. November/December and onwards.

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Bobman on Sun Oct 18, 2009 2:22 pm

Just in regards to the next 4 months.

What caused the extreme rainfall during 1-2 days in the last 6 years in Melbourne:

November 2003 (over 100mm in 24 hrs - large amount falling in the Northcote area).
January 2004 (over 50mm in 1 hour - large amount falling in the Hawthorn area).
February 2005 (50mm-100mm in 24 hrs).
December 2007 (over 50mm in 24 hrs).

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Johnno on Sun Oct 18, 2009 2:44 pm

December 14th-16th event last year (2008) before it didnt rain for 2 and half months after that produced 80mm through this area Bobman so I'll put that one in as well CBD had close to 3 inches and 106mm of rain fell in the Hoppers crossing, Werribee areas from the Friday to Sunday (14th to 16th)

I think the Nov 2003 freak storm event was in early December the 2nd or 3rd of December

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Bobman on Sun Oct 18, 2009 2:52 pm

Yeah, you're right. It started forming at the end of November and unleashed itself in the first week of December in 2003.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Melbourne_thunderstorm

Some more interesting reading: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_weather_events_in_Melbourne

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Johnno on Sun Oct 18, 2009 3:05 pm

Thanks for that Bobman interesting going back.

Back to this weeks event looks like EC is holding Friday and Saturday with perhaps patchy rain areas and isolated storms later Friday into Saturday morning then EC has done a major turnaround after that another trough looks to dip down from the NW Sunday and turns into a major front and low to our SW Monday before going back into a Cool Westerly pattern with some showers Tuesday & Wednesday.. Very very interesting... It may not happen this way in the end but definetly worth keeping an eye on.

Mabye an isolated shower on Tuesday nights front this week but I'm not really expecting anything to be honest.


P.S by the way so far October in Melbourne has been cooler than September with the average Max so far being around 17.7c while it was 18.6c for September but I guess that may change within the next week or so 2 or 3 warmer days chucked in the mix but still think October won't be much warmer than September in the end could be very close in the end.

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  floydlove on Sun Oct 18, 2009 3:41 pm

Yeah, looking like a nice week now. Apart from Tuesday, warm and windy will be a bit of a shock to the system. Hopefully some rain comes off at the end of the week. Smile

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Oct 18, 2009 6:20 pm

EC is going for some more very useful falls on Saturday and next Monday. 8mm for my place on Saturday (2.8mm Melbourne), 18mm on Monday (17mm Melbourne) so at this early stage it is looking significant.

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Power Storm on Sun Oct 18, 2009 6:42 pm

EC winds outright again, GFS following on. If there are any thunderstorms, most activity should be contstricted to the northern border region and northeast of the state now. Otherwise, a glorius week on the way.

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  norfolk on Sun Oct 18, 2009 7:07 pm

depends on your idea of glorious Smile

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Oct 18, 2009 7:26 pm

It will still be fairly warm and sunny for most of the week and Tuesday should still be mid to high 20s so I reckon you'll like that Tony. I'm looking forward to it personally, the cool and cloudy weather was starting to get a bit depressing, a one week break would be nice so we can actually feel like it's mid spring. Cool

A big difference to what we have been seeing for most of the month

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  hillybilly on Mon Oct 19, 2009 4:26 am

Not much to add. Next few days look like being as expect. Warmer today and bordering on hot tomorrow. Next to no rain with the front - maybe just light showers post change late Tues/early Wed.

Late in the sequence is shaping as really interesting with an upper trough amplifying to our west and a deep low eventually forming near Bass Strait. EC and GFS both have significant rain.

Meanwhile got low marine stratus is Sandy Point with drizzle.

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Oct 19, 2009 5:34 am

Quite a deck of strato cu further inland however no drizzle. Should break up further like yesterday to a fine afternoon but might struggle to 22C.

Tomorrow looks warmer with a late dry change. EC had ~10mm mid week in last nights run but eroded back ~2mm.
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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Johnno on Mon Oct 19, 2009 8:40 am

Power Storm wrote:EC winds outright again, GFS following on. If there are any thunderstorms, most activity should be contstricted to the northern border region and northeast of the state now. Otherwise, a glorius week on the way.

Hi Jake, I think you will find this time round that EC is following GFS, GFS has had this scenario for days as Andrew has mentioned once or twice in here past few days GASP also starting to fall into line with GFS. EC has done another big turnaround since last night and now pushes the low and cold air in quicker ahead of the next high ( last night it was pushing the low and cold air in after the high) preety much like GFS now.

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Sniper on Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:07 am

I'm in a marquee @ Yarra Glen races on Saturday.
What is the early forecast gang?

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Johnno on Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:16 am

At this stage 6 days out I would say A little rain and the chance of a Storm Wes or Few showers and chance of a storm but as we know things can change between now and then mate but thats my early tip

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Mantis on Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:21 am

Sniper wrote:I'm in a marquee @ Yarra Glen races on Saturday.
What is the early forecast gang?

Lots of drunkedness

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Power Storm on Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:42 am

Johnno wrote:
Power Storm wrote:EC winds outright again, GFS following on. If there are any thunderstorms, most activity should be contstricted to the northern border region and northeast of the state now. Otherwise, a glorius week on the way.

Hi Jake, I think you will find this time round that EC is following GFS, GFS has had this scenario for days as Andrew has mentioned once or twice in here past few days GASP also starting to fall into line with GFS. EC has done another big turnaround since last night and now pushes the low and cold air in quicker ahead of the next high ( last night it was pushing the low and cold air in after the high) preety much like GFS now.

Hey mate,

I should have explained better, I was quite tired... I was meant to say that EC won outright re: instability. GFS had a lot of instability in its model runs, now mostly restricted to NSW, whereas EC had always kept it north of us from Wednesday.

But from Saturday there does appear to some interesting prospects about it...

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Johnno on Mon Oct 19, 2009 3:13 pm

NO worries Jake

Looks like Models have downgraded tonight for next weekend and early next week... EC has changed and flipped flop again for the 4th run in a row going for a complete different scenario once again while GFS still holds the cold outbreak scenario but has weakened it to some extent.. Models may change once again but at this moment doesn't look too good IMO.

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Power Storm on Mon Oct 19, 2009 3:24 pm

Cheers mate.

Just saw that too John. We seem to be getting into the 'downgrade' motion again re models. Hope I'm wrong though. Not looking that flash anymore. But as you said, they can still change. Strange how EC is'nt having a bar of the cold outbreak whilst GFS is, I think it will be somewhere in between.

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

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