Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Page 3 of 4 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Mon Oct 19, 2009 5:35 pm

Wow what an amazing looking satellite image...will get over 30.

I_Love_Storms

Posts : 445
Join date : 2009-08-06
Location : Lilydale

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Oct 19, 2009 6:28 pm

Power Storm wrote:Cheers mate.

Just saw that too John. We seem to be getting into the 'downgrade' motion again re models. Hope I'm wrong though. Not looking that flash anymore. But as you said, they can still change. Strange how EC is'nt having a bar of the cold outbreak whilst GFS is, I think it will be somewhere in between.

I think what we are seeing is models going too strong to begin with. Originally GFS was going with a massive heatwave and ridiculous instability indicators (i.e GFS and CAPE) with some -11 LI values progged at one stage. Take one look at that and you know GFS has gone stupid so you couldn't take it seriously. EC never had a bar of it and GFS came back to EC gradually through the week with the heat downgraded quite a bit and the instability wound right back to near nothing over the state. IMO this was always what we were in line for this week, I wasn't expecting anything much at all.

Now we have the reverse with GFS going for a ridiculous cold outbreak (-6C 850Ts in Melbourne) on Monday that just won't happen. This is not the first time this year GFS has gone overboard in the progs for a major cold outbreak. It seems to me that we should be ignoring GFS atm. What it is progging in terms of the low and upper trough on the weekend is very similar to what EC has but the cold outbreak behind and huge strong high just doesn't look right to me for this time of year. What this means is the very dry air GFS has for later into the weekend and early next week (associated with the Antarctic air mass) is unlikely to be that severe and the ECL it has off the coast of NSW and moving down the coast is unlikely to be as significant or happen at all for that matter.

I'm going with EC all the way and that is for some light rain or showers Wednesday morning with the change (only a couple of mm and mainly near the coast/bay region) and then a more siginificant rain band with possible thunderstorms on Saturday/Sunday with about 5-15mm likely with isolated higher falls.

droughtbreaker

Posts : 640
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 35
Location : Mount Macedon (520m asl)

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Power Storm on Mon Oct 19, 2009 7:48 pm

Well written Andrew mate Wink

I'm still not sure about the weekend rainfall. I think we will be just bordering on isolated/scattered showers atm through parts of the state. A few isolated thunderstorms chucked into the mix with deep convection. We'll see.

Power Storm

Posts : 703
Join date : 2009-05-18
Age : 23
Location : Simpson South

http://www.australianweathernow.yolasite.com

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Oct 20, 2009 4:15 am

Cannot see much in the way of rain in the next week or so.

Has that 30C feel today.
avatar
Karl Lijnders

Posts : 1472
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 32
Location : Knoxfield, Victoria

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  hillybilly on Tue Oct 20, 2009 4:53 am

Will certainly get close to 30C in Melbourne today. The models suggest we will fall just short, but with dry air and a warm start it will get very close. North of the divide should be above 30C in most centres.

Timing of the front is "ideal" for drizzle and light showers through central areas with the RH max coming through overnight. Models aren't keen on rain (now) but may squeeze a mm or two. Suspect we will see some stratus fog post front up here.

The weekend is not looking very promising now for rain Rolling Eyes . A near miss on a cold outbreak and then the "low" forming too far north/east of us to give rain. Always a chance that the models will switch back - to tell the truth the GFS scenario and EC scenario look rather unbelievable.

hillybilly

Posts : 742
Join date : 2009-05-18
Location : Ferny Creek

http://www.bom.gov.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Rhino on Tue Oct 20, 2009 5:31 am

Just getting back into the "normal" weather pattern here by the looks. Had 18mm MTD with an average of 50mm for OCT. Won't get that and with warm weather things will dry out real quick here.

Rhino. Smile Smile

Rhino

Posts : 82
Join date : 2009-06-13
Location : Carisbrook-Near Maryborough

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Sniper on Tue Oct 20, 2009 7:55 am

One word to describe today.
Stunning!!!

Sniper

Posts : 652
Join date : 2009-06-12
Age : 39
Location : Doncaster East - 133 asl

http://www.stubbysolutions.com.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Oct 20, 2009 8:00 am

I think we may get 31C today.
avatar
Karl Lijnders

Posts : 1472
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 32
Location : Knoxfield, Victoria

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Sniper on Tue Oct 20, 2009 9:28 am

Interesting to note that the Ground Moisture map indicates that areas of Inner Western Melbourne (Avalon, Laverton and surrounds) are drier than the areas of the Mallee around Mildura etc.

With these warm temps today and strengthening winds, it may have been useful to publish a Fire Weather warning for that section of Central areas.

Sniper

Posts : 652
Join date : 2009-06-12
Age : 39
Location : Doncaster East - 133 asl

http://www.stubbysolutions.com.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  AmaroK on Tue Oct 20, 2009 9:32 am

Well its a great day out there, unless you are a hay fever sufferer. Gusts up to 50km in the area. temps in the back carpark at work is currently 26.8 and rising. No clouds visible outside my office window. Just a very pleasant day in general. What time during the night do we expect showers to start moving towards central areas?



Update:1:37: Starting to get the first bits of the could band over bayswater now. Wind is really getting up.
avatar
AmaroK

Posts : 159
Join date : 2009-06-23
Age : 34
Location : Rowville

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Tue Oct 20, 2009 10:50 am

28.2 @ 12.30 NOW 27.2 was a little surprised it was that warm. 23klm max wind speed @ 1.20pm.
avatar
Australis(Shell3155)

Posts : 166
Join date : 2009-06-12
Location : Boronia

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Tue Oct 20, 2009 1:03 pm

Hey all just got up for my last nightshift for this block. Low 30s outside and bit breezy at times. Looks like a fire in one of the parks to the WSW of Ouyen so I would say NRE is controlled burning out there. Quite a good pyrocumulus coming up though. Should be a good night for working and will probably not need the jusper for a change! I would say that todays heat will spell the end for rain being of any use to crops up here and we will be after ripening weather from now on (ie this type of weather). Spring has finally arrived up here!

Malleefarmer

Posts : 178
Join date : 2009-05-23

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Sniper on Tue Oct 20, 2009 1:07 pm

Some messy mammatus at the southern end of town. Today was the perfect set-up for a late storm (if the moisture was around!!) Still 28c in CBD, looks like 15c from inside.

Sniper

Posts : 652
Join date : 2009-06-12
Age : 39
Location : Doncaster East - 133 asl

http://www.stubbysolutions.com.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Southeast Spring Heat: October 19 onwards

Post  Hinezy on Tue Oct 20, 2009 2:37 pm

You can actually see the frontal boundary approaching the city at the moment.. There's a nice bow shaped line of Ac marking the front and it looks like it's JUST south of the city at the moment..

The temperatures have also dropped like a stone where the front's passed through.. Avalon just dropped over 8c in less than half an hour. Dammit! I was enjoying this warm weather Sad

You can see it quite clearly on the doppler wind function of the Melbourne radar as well.. there's a northward moving line which seems to have just moved through Melbourne City.


Last edited by Hinezy on Tue Oct 20, 2009 2:39 pm; edited 1 time in total

Hinezy

Posts : 36
Join date : 2009-06-12

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  norfolk on Tue Oct 20, 2009 2:38 pm

I am guessing the change is about to arrive soon...it's still 27.9 here but laverton is it below 20!

norfolk

Posts : 413
Join date : 2009-05-19
Age : 41
Location : Caroline Springs

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Bobman on Tue Oct 20, 2009 2:43 pm

17 in Moorabbin now.

I'm not looking forward to Summer at all. Best temps are between 20 and 25, but hey that's just me Smile

Bobman

Posts : 118
Join date : 2009-09-12
Age : 33
Location : Moorabbin

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  mick on Tue Oct 20, 2009 2:48 pm

Was some weak mamas visible here at 5 heading into the wind change. 3 drops of rain.

Interesting was a flock of sacred ibis that was riding a thermal just ahead of the change. Went from 200 to about 1000ft drifting south, then caught the change and climbed to 2000 and headed back the way they came but a bit more west of north west.

These birds would be the ones that head to moorabbin airport and surrounding fields and GCs this time of year. Was fun to watch them spiralling over my head like a school of fish!

mick

Posts : 149
Join date : 2009-06-30
Location : down the bay

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  hillybilly on Tue Oct 20, 2009 3:31 pm

Topped out at 25.0C here today. We got the cloud a bit later than the city which probably explains why we got a bit warmer than I would have expected.

Had a few drops of rain since 5pm but never enough to wet the ground - clearly very dry below the cloud deck.

Is a little interest in tonight. The mid level cloud band is thickening up a bit as a weak upper trough sharpens up. At the same time the low levels are likely to get very moist overnight with DP into the low teens. The combination could see a little light shower activity/drizzle with perhaps the odd mid level shower over the top. Could be worth 2mm or so if you get lucky.

hillybilly

Posts : 742
Join date : 2009-05-18
Location : Ferny Creek

http://www.bom.gov.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  AmaroK on Tue Oct 20, 2009 3:33 pm

Cool breeze just hit here. Very interesting cloud formations about. I just wish there was more moisture in the air
avatar
AmaroK

Posts : 159
Join date : 2009-06-23
Age : 34
Location : Rowville

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Tue Oct 20, 2009 3:43 pm

AmaroK wrote:Cool breeze just hit here. Very interesting cloud formations about. I just wish there was more moisture in the air

It is getting pretty humid, last time I looked Melbourne was at about 68%

I_Love_Storms

Posts : 445
Join date : 2009-08-06
Location : Lilydale

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  norfolk on Tue Oct 20, 2009 3:54 pm

How low did the humidity get today?

A very typical summer change.....dry!

norfolk

Posts : 413
Join date : 2009-05-19
Age : 41
Location : Caroline Springs

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Oct 20, 2009 4:06 pm

Nothing too exceptional for today. DPs stayed above 0C and comfortably above in many areas. Temperatures were very close to the BOM forecast and pretty much what the models were indicating. A few places in Melbourne almost got to 30C which was to be expected. Certainly a warm one, would have been a very nice day except for the wind which blows all the dust, pollen and dried up plant matter (plane trees are the worst culprit, lots of them in North Melbourne unfortunately) into your face. Not a good day for hay fever sufferers. I don't get it too bad but I do get a bit of a runny nose and sneezing through the day on bad days.

8/8 As at the moment which is thickening and lowering all the time. With a southerly breeze overnight we could see widespread drizzle overnight that has the potential to be productive but as DJ said only a couple of mm likely really if you are lucky.

Models have dropped the weekend scenario now with more dry changes (surprise, surprise) but IMO it doesn't look right, particularly GFS which continues to do some weird things with the highs and lows.

droughtbreaker

Posts : 640
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 35
Location : Mount Macedon (520m asl)

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Tue Oct 20, 2009 4:17 pm

norfolk wrote:How low did the humidity get today?

A very typical summer change.....dry!

Yeah pretty low!!! I'm thinking it is likely summer may come earlier than last year, after all summer arrived last year around Jan 4...

Assuming that it remains relatively dry for the remainder of Spring and Summer, how long do you think it will take for the grass to turn brown again?

I_Love_Storms

Posts : 445
Join date : 2009-08-06
Location : Lilydale

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Oct 20, 2009 4:21 pm

No one is interested in that ILS, if it happens it happens and we'll deal with it then. I am enjoying the green grass and the garden looking really good atm. To tell you the truth I am a bit sick of all the media hype about bushfires atm, it is almost as if the authorities don't trust the community to take the issue seriously and we have to be constantly reminded and startled into action. Rolling Eyes Also there are some people who I suspect still get excited by severe fire weather even after what happened this February. It doesn't bode well for the upcoming fire season if we continue to hype up bushfires and the bushfire threat, arsonists will go beserk this summer as a result. Arsonists are the number 1 cause of bushfires. If we keep a lid on it they might not be as active in future.

DPs were not terribly bad today when you consider that in previous springs we have seen DPs well into the negatives on a regular basis.

droughtbreaker

Posts : 640
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 35
Location : Mount Macedon (520m asl)

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Tin Roof on Tue Oct 20, 2009 4:30 pm

Got to a cloudy 18C in Portland today, now-trying hard to rain Shocked
Mt Gambier radar looking very interesting ATM

Tin Roof

Posts : 3
Join date : 2009-06-12
Location : Portland,Victoria

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 3 of 4 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum