Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Johnno on Tue Oct 20, 2009 4:57 pm

Just wondering Andrew whats wrong with GFS in your eyes? EC looks even more outrageous and dynamic than GFS

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Oct 20, 2009 5:10 pm

Tin Roof wrote:Got to a cloudy 18C in Portland today, now-trying hard to rain Shocked
Mt Gambier radar looking very interesting ATM

The benefits of being close to the Southern ocean. Wink

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Oct 20, 2009 5:18 pm

Johnno wrote:Just wondering Andrew whats wrong with GFS in your eyes? EC looks even more outrageous and dynamic than GFS

Yeah, EC is stupid as well. You can pretty much disregard model outputs when they start doing ridiculous things to the highs and lows, moving them out of position etc. You can be almost 100% certain nothing even remotely resembling EC will come off, particularly inthe latter part of the run, it is ridiculously complex what that model is progging.

I mentioned GFS because it is doing bizarre things to the high pressure belt between Monday and Tuesday which looks like a long shot to me, to have a large and strong high pressure system close to our west that dissolves to an eastward extension of a ridge (going way back to the southern ocean well south of WA) literally overnight. I'm sure it's happened before but when a model predicts this to happen a week out it's real long odds I reckon.

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Tue Oct 20, 2009 6:44 pm

droughtbreaker wrote:No one is interested in that ILS, if it happens it happens and we'll deal with it then. I am enjoying the green grass and the garden looking really good atm.

What I mean is, how significant has the rain actually been over the past 6 weeks? Will it significantly reduce the threat of fires (which I hope it will do), or will the effects be possibly short-lived if we don't get significant follow up rainfall?

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  floydlove on Tue Oct 20, 2009 6:53 pm

Bobman wrote:17 in Moorabbin now.

I'm not looking forward to Summer at all. Best temps are between 20 and 25, but hey that's just me Smile

I'm with you. For summer I do like the cooler days between 20-25C but 25-30 are nice too as long as it's not continuous and doesn't occur too often.

Today was pretty nice actually, didn't like the wind though. I think heat/warmth can be fine just as long as it doesn't come with the gusty wind.

Haha, anyway looks mild for a bit. I'm happy with the mild weather with the odd warm day, works well. Smile

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Oct 20, 2009 7:03 pm

I_Love_Storms wrote:
droughtbreaker wrote:No one is interested in that ILS, if it happens it happens and we'll deal with it then. I am enjoying the green grass and the garden looking really good atm.

What I mean is, how significant has the rain actually been over the past 6 weeks? Will it significantly reduce the threat of fires (which I hope it will do), or will the effects be possibly short-lived if we don't get significant follow up rainfall?

If we get a really hot and dry period between now and summer and then another bad summer following it will be next to useless but it's just too early to get wrapped up in that yet IMO. Sure we should be prepared for the possibility of that happening and everyone should be fully prepared for the fire season but really we should also be enjoying what the rain has given us while it lasts. Sorry though if I sounded a bit harsh before in my post, certainly not directed at anyone, it's just that I'm very sensitive about bushfires, and severe summer weather destroying the landscape and environment like most of us are and don't like thinking about it too much. Wink

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Power Storm on Tue Oct 20, 2009 7:26 pm

Well it was a great day here today. Warm temperatures ahead of a typical dry change. A few gusts of winds as well today, but not too bad. There were some quite interesting cloud formations about today as well.

Currently, we are getting some light drizzle, interesting radar atm though with it stretching a fair way tonight. Well picked DJ.

Weekend is hardly anything now, perhaps the odd shower or two, mostly restricted to the far northern/northeastern parts. Models IMO are looking strange atm, but would consider what GFS is saying as possible.

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Oct 21, 2009 4:19 am

Few spits this morning with no evidence of drizzle or light showers. Should be a nice afternoon.

Not much coming in the coming week although the moisture is building over the region and the interior next week.

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  hillybilly on Wed Oct 21, 2009 4:40 am

Had a bit of fog overnight in the hills and then a few light showers this morning. Sadly, not enough to record. RH stayed just a little to high to get a decent stratus deck - our RH was mostly near 95%.

Looks like that is the end of the heat for us in this sequence. The north will continue warm but nothing unusual.

The weekend's front looks ok for a few mm in the south, mainly in eastern parts. Still, looks like October 2009 will go down as another shocker for us with just 50% of average rainfall Sad

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  mick on Wed Oct 21, 2009 2:52 pm

I_Love_Storms wrote:
droughtbreaker wrote:No one is interested in that ILS, if it happens it happens and we'll deal with it then. I am enjoying the green grass and the garden looking really good atm.

What I mean is, how significant has the rain actually been over the past 6 weeks? Will it significantly reduce the threat of fires (which I hope it will do), or will the effects be possibly short-lived if we don't get significant follow up rainfall?

IMO, down here it has just created a huge fuel load. The weed grasses are four foot and growing. First time for 5 years here, might actually have to start worrying about snakes in the grass!

Come jan feb, things will be tinder dry.

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Power Storm on Wed Oct 21, 2009 3:23 pm

Was a fine and mostly sunny start here. Overnight drizzle lead to .8mm in the gauge to 9am this morning. Some afternoon cloud but otherwise a fantastic Spring day.

Looks like the goods across much of the state tomorrow, sunny weather throughout.

Model outlooks look fairly dry for the next seven days except for the weekend where I think most precipitation activity will be restricted to areas north of the ranges IMO. It looks like more northeasterly winds in the latter part of of the model runs, around Wednesday/Thursday next week. Temperatures warming then to mid to high 20's statewide, low 30's perhaps to the northern areas. Just hopeing for a trough to dig in to some moisture around the continent after then.


Last edited by Power Storm on Wed Oct 21, 2009 4:36 pm; edited 3 times in total

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  norfolk on Wed Oct 21, 2009 3:53 pm

Opposite here Jake, cool and cloudy this morning, mostly sunny and quite nice this arvo.

Looking at my GFS model.....(like I claim it! lol), I think I see by next Wednesday a trough in western NSW that could bring heat and storms to NW Vic with a ridge to the south making it drier and possibly mid 20's temps. Highs centered in the Tasman and the bight. And a very interesting low pressure to the south of Perth troughing all the way to the NW of WA. But then I am not sure Smile

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  hillybilly on Wed Oct 21, 2009 4:26 pm

10C cooler today than yesterday with a max of just 15C up here. It looked and felt much warmer with a very warm arvo sun. Last 24 hours strikes me as classical spring El Nino weather - with a lack of moisture killing all the rainfall prospects.

Notably warm today in NSW - mid 30s around Sydney, 29 in Canberra and 37C in Bourke. Shows the heat got darn close to us.

Not much weather in the offering now - just the odd shower on the weekend (if your lucky) - with mild/warm temperatures cooling off. The upper temperatures get very cool into the weekend (850T below -1C) so should see some stream showers in the southerlies but moisture will be in short supply except in Gippsland.

Hoping to see something mid/late next week but that's way off!

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Oct 22, 2009 5:22 am

Stunning weather today!!!

I guess the only weather to watch in the next week is moisture building over the interior and moving south which is suggested by EC and US with rainfall coming at the end of the runs.

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  windyrob on Thu Oct 22, 2009 5:49 am

Karl Lijnders wrote:Stunning weather today!!!

I guess the only weather to watch in the next week is moisture building over the interior and moving south which is suggested by EC and US with rainfall coming at the end of the runs.
Just in time for cup weekend! Twisted Evil

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Luken on Thu Oct 22, 2009 6:09 am

Yep you can always rely on Cup Day for a good storm or drenching rain.

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  hillybilly on Thu Oct 22, 2009 6:11 am

Maybe a thread is needed for the coming 1-2 weeks of non-weather?

BTW looks like Melbourne will miss out on it's driest Jan-Oct period by less than 10mm if the current progs are right. Means we have to get about 40mm by December 31 to avoid the driest year on record.

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Oct 22, 2009 6:27 am

Sure DJ - sounds like a plan Smile. Keep an eye also over the NE on the weekend. Chance of isolated storms about.

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Re: Victoria: Spring Heat: October 19th -22nd 2009

Post  Johnno on Thu Oct 22, 2009 9:42 am

Yep the Silky oaks (rain trees) are heavily budding (like the past 2 years) and all that moisture up North (which is progged by all models to set in by Monday) some of it will eventually come back down to Victoria and interact with the next surface trough/front and Long wave trough just in time for Cup week Wink You can bet you bottom dollar we will have a preety big event ( at least modest) between Derby day and Oaks day

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