Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

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Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Thu Oct 22, 2009 2:03 pm

Looks like a large high is going to become established near the southeast and set in place a protracted blocking pattern. Vic sits firmly under this block with little weather in store for the next week apart from sunny days and clear nights. NOGAPS and GFS even suggest the event could last into November.

Some showers are likely on the weekend, but look like not eventuating to much. Beyond that, it is not clear when the event will break down.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Johnno on Thu Oct 22, 2009 2:41 pm

I think it will well & truly have broken down by Derby day weekend with some rain then but thats only my opinion

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  norfolk on Thu Oct 22, 2009 3:20 pm

and it depends on opinion....sometimes dry sunny days can be interesting, especially if seabreezes have a say in things and cool coastal temps alot with major heat slightly inland. I go for stats and these days can get interesting temperature stats.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Petros on Thu Oct 22, 2009 4:06 pm

All sounds pretty tame unless you intend to ride your motorbike back over Mt Hotham on Sunday with the BOM predicting snow shower above 1600M.

Can anyone predict if I'll beat these if go over around 11am???? What a Face

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Thu Oct 22, 2009 6:13 pm

Could be a little interesting on Sunday for here. Sharp upper trough, S/SE airflow, cold temps. May not be many showers around but if a bay stream sets up I know who'll be under them for most of the day. Razz

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Thu Oct 22, 2009 7:01 pm

Another fine and sunny day here, temperatures reaching around the 20 degree mark.

Nothing in the way of good precipitation over the next seven days. Generally mostly sunny weather with temperatures gradually rising into the mid to high 20's from next Wednesday, reaching lows to mid 30's in the north, particularly on Friday where we could see mid to high 30's in the north, low 30's in the south. Looks a little troughy IMO next Friday, so could be a couple of afternoon showers or thunderstorms about the state then too, but way way way out.... interesting with all the moisture though guys sitting through the continent atm. I'd say the dry weather will end next weekend too.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Lily on Thu Oct 22, 2009 9:32 pm

It's ok, everyone, it will rain next Saturday week. We're going to Ballarat next weekend, it always rains when we go to Ballarat Rolling Eyes Razz

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Fri Oct 23, 2009 4:35 am

EC and GFS seem to have now killed the rain for late next week. Will make 5 shocking October's (rainfall wise) in a row... yet another sorry record (if you haven't guessed after 13 years I'm sick of drought Rolling Eyes ).

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  dagget on Fri Oct 23, 2009 7:26 am

Well if there is no rain next week I think this is it for my water tanks. May as well switch them off for the season and go back to mains for the inside and save them for the gardern. Thought I would last until at least December.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Johnno on Fri Oct 23, 2009 8:14 am

hillybilly wrote:EC and GFS seem to have now killed the rain for late next week. Will make 5 shocking October's (rainfall wise) in a row... yet another sorry record (if you haven't guessed after 13 years I'm sick of drought Rolling Eyes ).

Your own BOM models predicted this David of the chances being below average of seeing normal rainfall from October to December so not sure why this is so suprising to you?

I think November be bit better (prob around 40mm for Melbourne) and Summer will be okay this year interms of rainfall its very rare we don't get at least 1 big massive rain event during a Summer El Nino.. Summer of 94/95 was wettish and humid especially January onwards.. 97/98 we had good rains.. 2007 We had the massive January event with all the tropical moisture up North giving widespread 50-100mm totals through a 2 day period through the whole Western half of the state I think places around Hamilton & Mortlake and that had 100mm+ out of that which when you think of it is extraordinary in Summer from a rainevent especially the West of the state and not just local storms and then there was the February 2003 we had a similar set up with widespread heavy rain across Western and Northern Victoria with falls of 100mm+ in parts of the Mallee so you can almost pencil it in going by recent history of the past 15-20 years something big will happen this Summer.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  rikjpool on Fri Oct 23, 2009 10:11 am

So those storms firing up on the coast of SA will have no impact on us then you all saying? I thought we might get a rumble or two in a couple of days...

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Fri Oct 23, 2009 10:52 am

dagget wrote:Well if there is no rain next week I think this is it for my water tanks. May as well switch them off for the season and go back to mains for the inside and save them for the gardern. Thought I would last until at least December.

Have taken the washing machine off few days back, just running 2 toilets and one tap, for the minute, have had few years in a row of not turning them off early enough and being short of tank water for trying to save the garden.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Rivergirl on Fri Oct 23, 2009 1:11 pm

I'm in Tassie from Sunday till Wednesday so I guess the chances of no rain there are good too.

We've got a massive concrete water tank built in the 30s and we ran it dry this summer for the first time Sad

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  dagget on Fri Oct 23, 2009 1:45 pm

Australis(Shell3155) wrote:
Have taken the washing machine off few days back, just running 2 toilets and one tap, for the minute, have had few years in a row of not turning them off early enough and being short of tank water for trying to save the garden.

It is a bit touch and go when you switch them over, all I have running now is the outdoor taps on the tank. We are about 3/4 full so just on 7500 litres, should be OK for summer as long as we get some decent rain Nov/December like the last couple of years.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Twister on Fri Oct 23, 2009 2:17 pm

Yes The tap has turned off, it will be another VERY dry October now sadly.

Cant see any rain for us till early November, I am not Sure Nov and Dec will be wet this year last 4 years Sept, Oct were dry Nov Dec were Wet, This Year Sept and early Oct were Wet.
Am thinking Mid Oct till maybe late Nov will be dry, then Early Dec Wet and after that who knows

Cant see much rain if any next 10 days, but this dry period had to come sooner or later after 6 wet weeks.

NSW and QLD about to have a wet week so lucky them enjoy.

Mild To warm and sunny week ahead with few clouds from time to time

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Fri Oct 23, 2009 2:23 pm

Still a few days out but next week is now shaping up as a mini heatwave. Could well see a few days of mid to high 20s into the 30s. Will see.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Oct 23, 2009 3:17 pm

Been a bit sidetracked of late but it looks like 32-34 for 2 days at with near 30C days from mid week

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Johnno on Fri Oct 23, 2009 3:33 pm

Don't want to write off anything yet but going by history the past 4 El Ninos we have had well below average rainfall in the November/December period by the look of it this El Nino is now really starting to get into gear and going by the past 4 whether weak or strong both these months have been very dry when we have had an El nino. 1994, 1997, 2002 & 2006 were all dry through this period (infact alot of these months we didn't even get half our rainfall average) and the IOD plays minimal part in these months so the odds are stacked against us getting average rain. However I still do believe January or February or even both bet quite wet & stormy this time round.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Bobman on Fri Oct 23, 2009 3:43 pm

1997 could well have been the beginning of the drought in Victoria and mainly around Melbourne, but the dams were 80% full at that time.

I miss those summer storms that were so nice at the end of a hot day back in that decade. It's disappointing that October is well below average for rainfall compared to last year, but hopefully November makes up for it. Hence the song "November Rain" Wink

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Fri Oct 23, 2009 4:43 pm

I thought a few weeks back that things were starting to change for the worse. We have the El Nino pattern starting to extend into Victoria now, and honestly I cannot see any good rainfall for ages, and we are starting to see the 'northeasterly' winds in the model runs, which is common in El Nino's. Even the 28-day (sometimes reliable) is showing next to nothing, so thats an indication as well. But we have to remember that IMO El Nino brings better prospects for thunderstorms across the state! So I guess thats a bonus depends on whether or not they are dry or wet.

Weekend looks lousy re rainfall too, and I suspected that a while ago, air just seems too dry, nothing to get a stream going in the southerly airflow.

So yeah, warm to hot temps next week from Wednesday, as I said on the previous page. A few fire weather warnings are likely to be issued too IMO, particularly next Friday (maybe I will take out the TFB then). The strongest burst of heat is due on Friday with freshening north to northwest winds ahead of a change in the west late Friday, bringing with it isolated showers and thunderstorms, extending throughout the rest of the state on the Saturday.


Last edited by Power Storm on Fri Oct 23, 2009 6:16 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Fri Oct 23, 2009 5:54 pm

Doubt the fire danger will be too bad next week (with the exception of the Mallee), we have only just come off two months of above average rainfall and the soil is still relatively moist and the grass is very green. The grassland and forests need to dry out first before there is too much of a threat. It could take until January for this to happen in all seriousness as November and December are still generally cool months on average with few major heat outbreaks and even with well below average rainfall it should keep the soil moist enough for grass to continue to grow and the forests to still contain some moisture. Late December through to February of course things can dry out practically overnight.

As ominous as the weather pattern is atm, screaming out El Nino basically, it is still premature to call off the rest of the year's rainfall based on what we are likely to see for the next week and a half. I know we get like this now because we are so used to the drought (permanent climate change) and in all likelihood we will go back to terrible dry conditions again but I'd still wait another week or two and if the pattern is still the same I will be very worried. We can still get a week or two of settled high pressure dominant weather at any time of year. Given we have hardly had any blocks since before winter and a procession of cold front after cold front the odds are we would go back to this sort of pattern eventually. I've been anticipating it all the time but hoping that it wouldn't happen, but it has to at some stage, it's all climate variability.

Unfortunately the change in pattern we are seeing atm is most likely being driven by El Nino so that is a big setback but still anything can happen, particularly at this time of year when systems of tropical origin start to become a big factor.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Petros on Fri Oct 23, 2009 6:21 pm

Power Storm wrote:I thought a few weeks back that things were starting to change for the worse. We have the El Nino pattern starting to extend into Victoria now, and honestly I cannot see any good rainfall for ages, and we are starting to see the 'northeasterly' winds in the model runs, which is common in El Nino's. Even the 28-day (sometimes reliable) is showing next to nothing, so thats an indication as well. But we have to remember that IMO El Nino brings better prospects for thunderstorms across the state! So I guess thats a bonus depends on whether or not they are dry or wet.

Weekend looks lousy re rainfall too, and I suspected that a while ago, air just seems too dry, nothing to get a stream going in the southerly airflow.

So yeah, warm to hot temps next week from Wednesday, as I said on the previous page. A few fire weather warnings are likely to be issued too IMO, particularly next Friday (maybe I will take out the TFB then). The strongest burst of heat is due on Friday with freshening north to northwest winds ahead of a change in the west late Friday, bringing with it isolated showers and thunderstorms, extending throughout the rest of the state on the Saturday.

PS - sorry to quote your post, but it reflects the general theme of posts of how bad things were in Vic Oct.... Just not true, overall it was a good month, only the Melb Metro area missed out, and their water is piped in anyhow!

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Fri Oct 23, 2009 6:44 pm

Not being fussy or anything, but I have never said that October has been bad, I am just mentioning the future from this point in time, which isnt looking too good atm. We have had a great month here!

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Johnno on Fri Oct 23, 2009 6:54 pm

The North of the state and Wimmera have had a dry month Petros so its not just Central Victoria and Melbourne thats had a dry month mate.

Gippsland on the other hand has done quite well after a shocking year there you guys have had 2 fairly good months in a row Sep and Oct Smile

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  norfolk on Fri Oct 23, 2009 8:32 pm

Interesting how people's perception of the general state of the weather is very much influenced by what they see. For example here, we have just had dry month after dry month after dry month, and the people around here just expect it.

Last month's 59mm just makes it into a good rainfall month in my opinion! This month's 14mm just a disappointment!

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

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