Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Oct 23, 2009 9:03 pm

Yeah quite right there Norf...

I think once we get another event and possibly cooler weather for a period, it won't seem so bad.

September 12th had everyone spooked when it hit 31C in some parts of Melbourne and remained at 27C til 1am.
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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Sat Oct 24, 2009 4:31 am

Not much weather to talk about Rolling Eyes Today's front looks half OK to our south and EC does have a couple of showers coming through tomorrow. Maybe a mm or two if your lucky. The far north may also scrape a dribble from the upper trough.

EC is now moving back towards the increasing humidity/thundery scenario for next week with showers and humid conditions from mid week. GFS is looking a bit better also.

Not convinced it will get overly hot next week. It has the potential, but at this stage with 850Ts in the low teens and a bit of cloud and humidity it shouldn't get much above 30C.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Sat Oct 24, 2009 7:10 am

Well spectacular weather up here today. Warm, no wind and sunny city folk would pay for this stuff! Anyhoo would be great to have no "hot weather" for another week or two and after that we will be on the verge of harvest so heat is good. After that, it can get as thundery as it likes! Well the weather has not really bahaved itself for the last few months so I am expecting that we will have some hot weather followed by a thundery harvest and dry as summer just to be difficult!! Rolling Eyes Laughing Laughing

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Sat Oct 24, 2009 3:21 pm

Well a generally fine and partly cloudy day here today. Temperatures reaching around 20 degrees again. It was quite warm whilst I played tennis, particularly in the sun, and I actually got sunburnt.

Great, warm sunny weather on the way next week. Weak change Friday in western parts during the afternoon. Maybe a couple of showers and thunderstorms with it.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  norfolk on Sat Oct 24, 2009 3:34 pm

clear skies all day and felt quite warm....and I find it very interesting how the seabreeze does cap that temperature amazingly.....not boring at all! So while it felt warm it was only 'average' at 20c.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Sat Oct 24, 2009 8:58 pm

Had a fair cloud about to our North this avro. Another great day up here today and a cool night for sleeping.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Sun Oct 25, 2009 4:40 am

Had 1mm up here overnight with a couple more showers to come. Nice to break the week long dry Rolling Eyes

EC has turned nasty and GASP is also pretty similar. EC has a heatwave developing late next week and lasting til (around) Cup Day with only a minor break. 850Ts approach 20C in northwest Vic which would see near 40C up there and mid 30s in Melbourne (were it to come off). It will - no doubt - change a little, but it is getting hard to see the southeast not getting a few hot days out of the sequence. Probably worth a thread if it holds.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Sun Oct 25, 2009 4:54 am

Must have had the smallest amount of rain also, not enough to register on weather station. Nice little puddle in wheel barrow.
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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Sun Oct 25, 2009 6:42 am

Didn't know where to post this query so I figured I'd post it in here.

I've looked at the National Loop a few times over the past couple of weeks and there seems to be an area of instability sitting off the coast near Broome. Is this for real or are they having probably with the radars up there?

Link: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR153.loop.shtml#skip

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  dagget on Sun Oct 25, 2009 7:04 am

Well we are certainly getting some weather here. Had to get up at 4am this morning to close the windows of the car (dont ask) as I heard the telltale drip drip from the downpipes and realised we had some rain. Must be only a mm or two, can tell as the gauge is not out but certainly a nice change with a decent southerly wind. 9 degrees here, but of a change from yesterday!

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Johnno on Sun Oct 25, 2009 7:16 am

Yeah had a dribble shower this morning in Sunshine (My other halfs house the better looking half ) but don't think it amounted to much

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Johnno on Sun Oct 25, 2009 7:18 am

As I said in another thread in here last week you can bet your bottom dollar something fairly big to happen between Derby day and Oaks day and still stick by it

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  dagget on Sun Oct 25, 2009 7:30 am

Certainly not complaining about this bit, totally unexpected and getting colder too, now 7.5 degrees.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Oct 25, 2009 7:30 am

Well, drizzly showers here aided by the SE air stream. Radar indicating some heavier showers possible later but only very small and isolated. 6.6C currently.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Sun Oct 25, 2009 7:41 am

1.8mm to 9am here. Most of it just before 9am in a moderate to heavy shower. Generally fine now with partly cloudy skies and the temperature starting to warm up nicely. Not expecting any further rainfall here until possibly next Friday.

Till then, warm to hot temperatures around the state, particularly late next week, as I said the other day.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Oct 25, 2009 7:46 am

hillybilly wrote:Had 1mm up here overnight with a couple more showers to come. Nice to break the week long dry Rolling Eyes

EC has turned nasty and GASP is also pretty similar. EC has a heatwave developing late next week and lasting til (around) Cup Day with only a minor break. 850Ts approach 20C in northwest Vic which would see near 40C up there and mid 30s in Melbourne (were it to come off). It will - no doubt - change a little, but it is getting hard to see the southeast not getting a few hot days out of the sequence. Probably worth a thread if it holds.

Definitely some hot days towards the end of next week and early weekend. EC does look much worse but relies on a stagnant blocking pattern in 5 to 10 days time which is still a long way into the future. I'd say at this stage it's pretty much on the mark for Thursday to Saturday but after that it seems a bit more up in the air. Basically I'm expecting Thursday to Saturday to be hot but then after that cloudier and more humid. GFS has a decent moist air mass coming through with the peak of the heat at around the same time (Thursday to Saturday) which really has my interest.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Johnno on Sun Oct 25, 2009 7:57 am

Elders has been suggesting for a while now the next Long wave trough to come through SE OZ between the 28th Oct and 1st November so I would be quite suprised if its not cooler by Sunday or Monday at the latest. GFS 12z and GFS 18z runs makes bit more sense to me than EC. GFS tends to fall inline with what Elders suggests.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Sun Oct 25, 2009 8:50 am

Didn't know where to post this query so I figured I'd post it in here.
I'll post an answer in QA section - http://planetweather.forumotion.net/nerdy-forum-weather-qa-f9/.

Agree EC is probably the worse of the lot ATM, but wouldn't discount it. Torwards the end of the event it does start to look OK for rain, but we have said that before and seen the rain disappear (this weekend a case in point).

BTW had another 0.2mm since 9am so up to 1.2mm.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  norfolk on Sun Oct 25, 2009 8:56 am

we had maybe half a mm overnight and there was a quick shower that I heard this morning! Windy and about 14 at the moment. And while the sun was trying to peek out of those clouds earlier, it is now overcast now.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Sun Oct 25, 2009 9:25 am

Had a really good shower while ago. still nothing registering on the station.
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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  firestorm on Sun Oct 25, 2009 12:17 pm

dont know how it happened but got 7.6mm overnight Shocked but wind dried it out pretty quick smart! things are starting to dry out quickly now!

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  norfolk on Sun Oct 25, 2009 1:28 pm

a windy and sunny afternoon now, so any rainfall we may have had, all evaporated I say!

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Oct 25, 2009 1:37 pm

SE wind with the Otways right on top of Aireys Inlet so always expect good rain in that setup.

1.6mm here which is pretty much what was expected. At least it keeps the surface of the ground moist.
Can't say it's drying out here at all. We've only really had one warm day since the wet period finished about a week ago and the air mass hasn't been particularly dry either since then with DPs well into the positives so not much potential yet for things to dry out. Grass is still growing like mad everywhere, very green.

EC hasn't come out yet of course but GFS and in particular BOM's models, LAPS and MLAPS look very promising for later this week with easterly winds developing here as the upper trough forms a closed upper low over far inland QLD and tracks west before breaking down. Looks like a surface trough may deepen over western QLD/NSW and send very humid air back down from QLD and NSW towards VIC in the next several days. After that a surface trough and eventually upper trough (the next long wave feature) should approach us from the west and pass through on the weekend. Unlike previous years at this time of year, this should bring with it an abundance of moisture with Indian Ocean origins (NW moisture feed). With lingering moisture already sitting over us from the north the potential is there for a stormy period Thursday to Saturday and then a significant rain event on Sunday.

It pretty much backs up what John has been saying with the forecast on the Elders site predicting the LWT passage between Saturday and Melbourne Cup day.

Of course this is very early days and just a combination of GFS and LAPS/MLAPS I'm basing this on, but at this stage it seems a fairly likely scenario. Still waiting on EC which could do anything but if EC comes into line with GFS tonight we are in business big time. Not all doom and gloom yet. Another big positive is with very high humidity and an easterly wind dominance the heat will not be as bad with cloud and instability around. Friday and Saturday you can pencil in as 30C days in Melbourne but the rest of the period seems just mild to warm to me until another cool to cold period on Sunday to Cup day.

As I said though, this is still just one scenario and there is also every chance we could see a major heatwave ahead with no rain but IMO it looks very likely to be humid and the LWT coming through on the weekend so stormy and wet later in the week into the weekend. Wink

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Sun Oct 25, 2009 6:01 pm

Great right up Andrew.

Power Storm wrote:Generally mostly sunny weather with temperatures gradually rising into the mid to high 20's from next Wednesday, reaching lows to mid 30's in the north, particularly on Friday where we could see mid to high 30's in the north, low 30's in the south. Looks a little troughy IMO next Friday, so could be a couple of afternoon showers or thunderstorms about the state then too, but way way way out.... interesting with all the moisture though guys sitting through the continent atm. I'd say the dry weather will end next weekend too.

Thats what I wrote last Thursday, basically sums it up. Wink

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Oct 25, 2009 6:19 pm

Yep, you guys were on to it from a while back and it always looked like a good prospect and it remains a good prospect now.

Interesting, but hardly surprising, to see EC come back in line with GFS and prog a much more mobile pattern and get rid of the block it had this morning. If it holds (asking a lot these days Rolling Eyes ) then we will see much better prospects for rain and storms and much less heat about. Just a day or two and nothing too severe I wouldn't think.

EC still looking a little unconvincing at this stage regarding rainfall and not going for much (weekend mainly) but has a significant cold front for Cup day. With all the moisture likely to flood in though this may well change. A lot of interest in this week now.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

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