Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  norfolk on Sun Oct 25, 2009 7:05 pm

Melb cup day could be a very warm morning with one of those windy changes that will totally mess with people's fashions....they will all go expecting a warm day and then be frozen by arvo! have fun in the car park everyone! hahaha

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sun Oct 25, 2009 7:23 pm

haha!!!

Latest US has 25-50mm now for Melbourne in the weekend sequence.
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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Oct 25, 2009 7:58 pm

Haha Tony! Yes the last time that happened was 2004. The day started off fine enough but very windy if I remember with a cold front fast approaching. Everyone was hoping it would hold off until after the race or that there wouldn't be any rain at all, but then things turned really nasty. Twisted Evil

I remember heavy rain, squalls and hail (pretty sure) at my place before the race. The track held up OK but it was one of those days that Tony is describing that caused mayhem to the people at the track and their fashions etc.

The ultimate one though was Oaks day, which may have been the same year, when it bucketed down in the afternoon and everyone at the track got completely soaked, which was quite a spectacle when they all descended on the city at the end of the day to get the train home. Laughing

Anyway back to the weather. Latest GFS has upgraded heaps and actually has rain and storms coming in from the NE on Thursday and Friday as a direct result of that moisture from QLD/NSW. It didn't have this in previous runs. It just gets more interesting this one. Wink

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Bobman on Sun Oct 25, 2009 8:08 pm

I remember that too. I just picked up a car in Preston and stopped for lunch, then it started raining heavily after 3pm or so.

Made for an interesting race.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  norfolk on Sun Oct 25, 2009 8:26 pm

did someone originally say this was going to be a week of boring or no weather? Wink

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Sun Oct 25, 2009 9:02 pm

did someone originally say this was going to be a week of boring or no weather?

Must be boring when we have 4 pages so far with no weather tongue

Am pleased to see EC backtrack. Thur/Fri/Sat now look a bit interesting and could give us the first proper thundery outbreak.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sun Oct 25, 2009 9:23 pm

Wow nice early start for you DJ.. Smile. Hope baby is well.

Quite cool tonight with the SE winds easing. Quite a few showers in the east making it into the Thomson.
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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Alexia on Mon Oct 26, 2009 3:24 am

We had a few little showers yesterday with 1.5mm rain in gauge. Up to 52mm for the month.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Mon Oct 26, 2009 4:49 am

Strikes me that we can just about pencil in a warm/hot humid spell with showers/storms now for Vic Thur onwards. Suspect the first burst could be a bit frustrating - fairly isolated and mostly in the east, but then the second burst in early next week should get some organisation ahead of a front due around Cup Day.

Between now and then the SE light winds and sunny skies continue.

PS Wow nice early start for you DJ - it's called Perth! Can report few spots of thundery rain this morning.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Melbourne Skywalker on Mon Oct 26, 2009 5:30 am

Morning all, just looking at the national rainfall totals and Sydney has recorded a massive 72.2mm since 9am yesterday! One can only wish for these types of totals.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Mon Oct 26, 2009 6:04 am

Really like the look of GFS this morning, and to a lesser extent EC...it now seems a decent chance as Dj suggest of some thundery weather over the weekend then really ramping up early next week. Moisture is abundant to our North and should be advected South slowly as the week goes on, along with some more moisture out west just to add to the mix with a trough..

Transition well and truly on with the interior fairly active this week...take a squiz at GFS 168, progging a massive dump next week! The positive is that EC has a very similar set up without the massive total..either way an interesting 10 days coming up one would think...
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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  The Watto on Mon Oct 26, 2009 2:18 pm

Very Cofusing Now of what is going to Happen between This Friday and Melb Cup Day, The latest BOM Forecast Doesnt really reflect the models... 30 Deg and Sunny on Monday Does not look right to me

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Johnno on Mon Oct 26, 2009 3:12 pm

Yeah Watto the BOM do their forecast mainly based on the EC model run in the morning. Speaking of EC it looks messy tonight it first looks hot and rather humid Friday with a surface trough nearby Saturday seperating N winds and SSE winds perhaps a thundery shower or two with that then Sunday gets messier with a surface trough near by and mid level disturbance coming in from the NW I would say then back to hot Monday ahead of a front and perhaps showers and storms Monday night just before Cup day comes in.

EC also has a moderate Upper level trough following in from the west Wednesday into Thursday as it did this morning.

GFS on the other hand weakens the mid level disturbance Sunday from the NW but looks rather stormy to our East Friday and Saturday and then the SW winds whip up Sunday and continue to Cup day so mix bag there by the looks of it.. Shwoing some potential but looks all over the place to me.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  norfolk on Mon Oct 26, 2009 4:14 pm

I agree, the models are saying 2 different things.

EC is showing quite windy conditions in western Victoria with a low south of Adelaide, so if they are strong northerlies, should easily be a hot day on Monday. Tuesday to me looks light the winds may move to the east with cooler winds.

GFS is showing south westerlies on Sunday, and Monday and possibly Tuesday as well.

Will be interesting to see who will be right!

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Oct 26, 2009 4:20 pm

Don't trust GFS rain totals. Not good at all for storm events, especially when we are talking several days out. Wink If you look at the 'stormcast' feature on the Brisbane storm chasers website which gives 3 hourly LI and CAPE from GFS, Friday is set to explode statewide. The air mass will be dead set tropical feeding down directly from the rain event that Sydney and up through QLD are getting. GFS has 16C+ 850T and around 16-18C DPs for most of central and eastern VIC on Friday, this is reinforced by high precip. water values. This would translate to a day of around 32C/17DP for Melbourne and into the mid 30s further north with similar DP values. Seriously tropical by VIC standards, particularly for the end of October. Shocked

Nothing unusual to have warmth/heat and instability at this time of year but usually nothing to the extent that GFS is showing. The humidity will hang around until the next system comes in from the west and as DJ suggests that's when things may get organised. Never the less there is always the chance up here on the ranges that storms can explode and become widespread and elsewhere in the state isolated storms (with the scenario GFS has for Friday) could easily dump 30-50mm in about as many minutes.

Anyway, the waiting game continues to see what the models will do next.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Oct 26, 2009 4:23 pm

norfolk wrote:I agree, the models are saying 2 different things.

EC is showing quite windy conditions in western Victoria with a low south of Adelaide, so if they are strong northerlies, should easily be a hot day on Monday. Tuesday to me looks light the winds may move to the east with cooler winds.

GFS is showing south westerlies on Sunday, and Monday and possibly Tuesday as well.

Will be interesting to see who will be right!

Of course they could both be wrong. Rolling Eyes

Would be interesting also to know what JMA and UKmet prog for the week as sometimes they can show up EC and GFS.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Oct 26, 2009 7:04 pm

06z GFS, Thursday and Friday, LIs and CAPE. Could instability of this magnitude actually happen to our humble state of VIC?

It wasn't long ago that GFS went spastic with -11LIs and 2500-3000 CAPE and it was rightly written off. We were talking quite a few days out though on that occasion and a major prolonged heatwave with high humidity was progged that was severely downgraded and we ended up with just one day in the high 20s.

This time around it seems a lot more plausible. We have very warm 850T feeding down from the NW that indicate the potential for temperatures in the low 30s for Melbourne and higher north of the ranges on Friday and very likely to come off as we are only 3 to 4 days out. We also have a reasonable consensus on very moist air coming straight down from QLD and NSW whilst they are in the midst of a substantial rain event. Add those two air masses together, the subtropical, sultry air mass from the north and the hot airmass from the NW (and quite humid also, not your classic dry desert air mass at all this time around) + a fairly decent surface trough and you get the basic ingredients for a very volatile atmosphere.

Seriously, the heat and humidity progged for the state on Friday is very similar to what they get in eastern QLD and NSW during Spring/Summer. I actually don't see any real reason why we couldn't see the sort of instability values that GFS is going for, i.e -7 LI and 2500 CAPE on the west central ranges and very high right along the ranges.

Having said this I fully expect it to downgrade heaps, but just 3 to 4 days out this may not be as crazy a scenario as it seems.

Shocked

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Mon Oct 26, 2009 7:48 pm

I think the GFS scenario is more believable this time around too Andrew. You make some very valid points. I think its certain that this Thursday/Friday are going to be stormy across the state, quite humid too! Wednesday may also get a storm in the far nth.

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

Post  norfolk on Mon Oct 26, 2009 8:14 pm

with all this discussion, I think things will be much clearer wed arvo. If storms begin to develop along the northern border on wednesday, things will all turn out as you plan Jake. If not......who knows! lol

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Re: Victoria: Dry spell. Fine and Warm. October 22nd-27th 2009

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