Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

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Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  hillybilly on Mon Oct 26, 2009 7:41 pm

Is shaping up as a very warm humid thundery/showery spell from Wed/Thur onwards. Is a very messy situation with weak synoptic forcing so hard to pick totals and timing.

Next couple of days are straight forward with winds slowing going around to the northeast/north bringing down increasingly warm/humid air. Should be some locally heavy showers/storms with this event.

BTW could get very warm on Monday if the EC scenario comes off. This has 850Ts into the low 20s which could map onto 35C+ at the surface.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Power Storm on Mon Oct 26, 2009 7:52 pm

Good to see you start this up DJ. I was wondering when one would get going.

Yes, things looking very good for isolated to scattered thunderstorms across Victoria later this week, particularly on Thursday and Friday. The trough is looking like a good one and we should have heaps of moisture being pumped into the state from the north (NSW/QLD). Also to help things get going DP values will be in the mid teens most likely as well as surface temperatures being near 30+ across the state. A perfect set-up for it all! GFS has LI values to -7 on both days, so the atmosphere is going to become very unstable, with very high CAPE values as well.

After Friday things get messy though with models in lar lar land, progging completley different things.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  hillybilly on Tue Oct 27, 2009 5:23 am

Models are holding this system with a mix of high temperature and humidity with showers/storms likely from Thur onwards. Latest LAPS has surface DP into the high teens on Thur arvo spreading south with surface temperatures near 30C. Initially the focus is likely to be in the north/east but by Fri Melbourne should see showers/storms. Depending on the exact location of the diffuse surface trough these could continue through the weekend.

Couple of things that have caught the eye. First is the upper ridge which sits over Vic during this sequence which means it's going to get hot before storms get going. The other is the potential for a very hot day in parts on Sunday/Monday. EC has 850T reaching near 24C which typically map onto surface temperature in the low 40s without cloud.

The high surface humidity should temper things a bit, but I would not be surprised to see near 35C in Melbourne out of the sequence.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  The Watto on Tue Oct 27, 2009 6:55 am

Its starting to look to me that GFS is now switching to EC's way of thinking but I may be wrong
As Far as Rain or Storm Events go it looks like Thurs Fri and Possibly Sat may see some activity, coming from the North East but its seems to be retracting as we get nearer.
As Far as heat goes it looks like Thur- Sat could be up to around 30 degrees with a cooler day on Sunday then it looks like the heat returns Monday which looks like it could be the hottest day(Both Mods are now suggesting this) but not sure if there will be cloud about to cool the temps.. The Cooler change looks like it could come through early Cup Day but may not be much with it,, Would be better if the change came through around the afternoon of cup day Surprised
Good Chance to be warm a gain by the end of next week.
Even though I love the heat I would Love to see a good storm on Thursday or Friday kick off.... cheers

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Tue Oct 27, 2009 9:11 am

Well you would expect some sort of forecast change this afternoon Rolling Eyes i think we all agree going to be warm humid and thundery right across vic over the next week or so.

Even the BOMs GASP model has showers for melbourne on Thursday so we will see what they make of it. Further on, EC and NOGAPS have a decent Low forming for Cup Day right on our doorstep. GFS has the same but drage the LOW down South of the mainland..so its on but as always just a matter of positioning..

Also of interest OCF showing a few mm on every day from thursday on..so starting to line up a bit..
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Johnno on Tue Oct 27, 2009 10:59 am

There should be some sort of change in the forecast this afternoon Anthony.. BOM said on radio this morning possible shower or storm Thursday and Friday so I would expect some sort of adjustment

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Tue Oct 27, 2009 1:36 pm

Just a slightly different forecast!! Almost every day as we figured has been altered..going to be humid and thundery you get the feeling....now we wait for EC and see if brings the low closer on Mon night..
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  The Watto on Tue Oct 27, 2009 2:10 pm

I am not sure about all the temps are right and all days between Fri and Mon being Cloudy.. I think the latest BOM forecast is off the mark

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Rhino on Tue Oct 27, 2009 2:18 pm

Certainly looking rather juicy Fri, GFS has LI -6 and CAPE around 2200 for my area at around 4pm, have'nt seen those values for a long time. Will be great if it happens but as always I will believe it when I see it. Wink But really, I would be happy with 5mm of rain out of this, pretty dry here again.

Rhino. Smile Smile

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  mick on Tue Oct 27, 2009 2:22 pm

ONly weather around is the smoke from controlled lol burns over the nongs. Waiting for the wind later in the week to set in them whoosh.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Oct 27, 2009 2:55 pm

It is looking very promising!! I think we may see falls of 50mm locally with thunderstorms on Friday, the shear is not super fast so things will take a while to move on. So this could prove frustrating.

Thursday will be better structure wise with a clear sky or 'blank canvas' to work with, Friday will be much cloudier with lots of middle level turrets and showers earlier in the day tending to scattered thunderstorms in clearer breaks.

I think Melbourne looks to be in a very good position as do the catchments. Things still fairly wet there so any quick fire 10-20mm will make a huge impact. 50mm falls will cause some quite dramatic inflows again!!

This is a very good opportunity. The weather looks to persist into Saturday and judging by US and EC the timing could be the make or break for another stormy outbreak before the WSW change develops.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Johnno on Tue Oct 27, 2009 3:13 pm

Anthony Violi wrote:Just a slightly different forecast!! Almost every day as we figured has been altered..going to be humid and thundery you get the feeling....now we wait for EC and see if brings the low closer on Mon night..

Bingo EC now follows NoGaps shoes putting the low further North Monday and into Humid NE winds again should be storms and rain ahead of that low now as it moves SE Monday night suddenly things are looking up. With the more humid NE flow I don't think be as hot as has been suggested but should still touch 30c Monday. Next few days looks good GFS has some healthy totals and storms for Central and Eastern Vic and thats not even including the Monday system that EC has.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Luken on Tue Oct 27, 2009 3:20 pm

Excellent news! Been getting very worried that our catchments would really start to dry off after all the good rain. As Karl said this is a very good oppurtunity.

Just as long as it comes off. For once I will be happy to see the thunder storms hanging around the eastern ranges rather than over me.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  norfolk on Tue Oct 27, 2009 3:21 pm

remember though with storms, many places may still miss out on any rain, so while it will be warm and humid, storms that will fall may miss areas totally, so expect alot of people to say....'I missed out!' Smile

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Power Storm on Tue Oct 27, 2009 3:25 pm

This trough is looking like a ripper across Victoria. Scattered locally heavy showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday, even Wednesday may scrape in a thunderstorm about the ranges or far northern parts of Victoria as winds start tending more NE and the flow moistens and as the trough moves closer. Big falls should occur as well, and Karl covered that by mentioning the shear! Wink Severe thunderstorm activity is likely, mostly for flash flooding, but Vic BoM will probably issue it for all three severe criteria. Very good LI/CAPE values as well as temperatures too for development.

Still a little tricky IMO for Saturday/Sunday. Saturday looks unsettled still with afternoon showers and thunderstorms IMO ahead of/with the change.

Models holding for next week as well with more hot, stormy weather on Monday, most showing a low next week, excluding GFS but hopefully it should come on board in the next few runs. Certainly interesting week ahead.


Last edited by Power Storm on Tue Oct 27, 2009 3:27 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Power Storm on Tue Oct 27, 2009 3:26 pm

This trough is looking like a ripper across Victoria. Scattered locally heavy showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday, even Wednesday may scrape in a thunderstorm about the ranges or far northern parts of Victoria as winds start tending more NE and the flow moistens and as the trough moves closer. Big falls should occur as well, and Karl covered that by mentioning the shear! Severe thunderstorm activity is likely, mostly for flash flooding, but Vic BoM will probably issue it for all three severe criteria. Very good LI/CAPE values as well as temperatures too for development.

Still a little tricky IMO for Saturday/Sunday. Saturday looks unsettled still with afternoon showers and thunderstorms IMO ahead of/with the change.

Models holding for next week as well with more hot, stormy weather on Monday, most showing a low next week, excluding GFS but hopefully it should come on board in the next few runs. Certainly interesting week ahead.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Petros on Tue Oct 27, 2009 3:40 pm

Latest BOM forecast for Gippsland......

"Forecast for Thursday
Becoming cloudy. The chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon and evening.
Forecast for Friday
Cloudy. Isolated showers. The chance of isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon
and evening. Min 13 Max 25

Forecast for Saturday
Cloudy. Isolated showers until evening. The chance of isolated thunderstorms in
the afternoon and evening. "

Havent checked for GFS's "red blob" forecast for Saturday yet, but the BOM 4 day chart shows precipitation for Vic fairly general (except NW) over the later part of the week and into Saturday.

So bring on that rain in NSW!!!!!

GFS has converted Sat's red rain blob over Gippsland to a yellow blob over the Prom instead (yest to today's run).

All models shows precip accumulated over most Vic areas still - presumably from storms. Going to be interesting in many places in Vic later in the week, you've just gotta be lucky. cheers
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Tue Oct 27, 2009 4:11 pm

GFS still struggling with this one, very interesting that NOGAPS has been onto the system for Cup Eve/Day the earliest, now EC and it are identical, transitioning the Low almost over us Mon night into tues morn...

The other thing in our favour is that the uppers are still cold, further enhancing instabilty, and as karl suggests, not much shear so steering will be limited, and big totals will be about...now we just need to get lucky..
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Oct 27, 2009 4:15 pm

Crazy 850T and Dp mix for Thursday to Cup day and the LIs and CAPE are indicative of this. Anything is possible with the sort of setup we have over this period and I mean anything., especially on Friday, Batten down the hatches! What a Face GFS has -7 LI over my place at 5pm Friday and around 2200 CAPE and at 2pm CAPE approaches 3000 near Maryborough. Laughing Not really expecting these values to reach such extreme heights but it's certainly possible. Really, we are so used to getting extreme dry with our extreme heat. This is the first time that we have seen extreme heat come with intense moisture. The craziness of global warming in full display.

Worth noting though that EC moves the pattern through rather quickly and actually has two bursts of heat and instability the way I'm reading things with a bit of a change in between. Looking at the www.yr.no site from Norway there's actually no significant heat forecast unless I'm reading things wrong. OCF this morning also had nothing above 30C for Melbourne just briefly looking at it. I guess the intense humidity and instability should cause cloudy conditions for a lot of the time, whether it's middle level, low level Scu (in the morning) or Cu/Cj/Cb.

EC for Monday has a significant low dipping in from the NW that would cause heavy rain to develop over the state and that's when we should go from explosive convection and mayhem to more soaking rain (if it comes off).

Still, I am prone to getting over excited about things and I'm not at all thrilled with some of the potential heat being forecast by models. Basically a very interesting week ahead to say the absolute least but still very edgy.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Johnno on Tue Oct 27, 2009 4:44 pm

Yes thats right Andrew nice sum up

heres lastest NOGaps


http://expert.weatheronline.net.nz/daten/profi/nz/nogaps/pslv.html

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Tue Oct 27, 2009 4:56 pm

LI -7, how often does this happen down here?

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Sniper on Tue Oct 27, 2009 5:04 pm

I am keeping the lip zipped til tomorrow night.

However, I have already planned any meetings to occur in the morning on both Thursday/Friday. Seriously considering a drive up to Kilmore one afternoon with a mate for a photo shoot. Very Happy

PS. John, I tips me lid to you again mate. You did sniff this out a long long way out cheers

PSS. Thanks for the message Karl. Hope all is ok. Will give you a buzz later in the week mate. Very Happy

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Johnno on Tue Oct 27, 2009 5:18 pm

Hey Wes. I did? Oh you mean in my 7 day forecast I do? Yeah took the gamble and predicted the possibility of storms and showers quite a fair while back and looks like it may be coming together fingers crossed it does mate.


Interesting EC has lowered its temps by a fair way on Monday now back to around 20c for Melbourne with cloud and rain but a slight change to this systems position could see it back in the 30's again so could go either way depending where the cloud and jetstream is come Monday

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Sniper on Tue Oct 27, 2009 5:22 pm

This is the second post in the thread named "Week or two with no weather"

Re: A week or two without weather: Vic Oct 22 -> Nov
Johnno on Thu Oct 22, 2009 5:41 pm
I think it will well & truly have broken down by Derby day weekend with some rain then but thats only my opinion

Not the first time you have predicted something from way out, nor will it be the last. Cool

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Johnno on Tue Oct 27, 2009 5:23 pm

Ah yeah last Thursday I said we will see some rain/storms by Derby day weekend almost forgot about that Laughing Thanks mate for the kind words hopefully I'm right Very Happy

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

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