Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Greg Sorenson on Thu Oct 29, 2009 1:24 pm

and potentially keeping active through the night within striking distance of a chase.
Still an area of -3's on and north of the central ranges at 11pm....... this could produce lots of images.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Guest on Thu Oct 29, 2009 1:29 pm

Deep rumbles from that cell NE of me.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Johnno on Thu Oct 29, 2009 1:32 pm

hillybilly wrote:Convection is clearly organised on the sea breeze front (the Viz pic shows a nice arc of convection about 100km long just north of the bay). Also a few nice Cbs going up west of Colac. Mesolaps suggests the sea breeze front will be with us well into the evening so will presumably be the focus of storms. Would imagine that the storms will feed of the convergence and also amplify the convergence.

The nice storm just south of the airport seems to be edging southward. This complex has already dropped 5mm around Diggers Rest.

Drove through that DJ dropped 4mm at Essnedon airport but water gushing down of the roads there nearby everywhere pools of water laying on the sides of the road

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  AmaroK on Thu Oct 29, 2009 1:35 pm

well sadly it looks like the bulk of the activity is over for the afternoon. Heres hoping the models for tomorrow have it right. I would really like a nice big weather event. Something nice to kick start the weekend of fun. Still getting the occasional crackle on the AM radio at the moment, but slowly dwindling
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  hillybilly on Thu Oct 29, 2009 1:35 pm

Got the backend of the storm that exploded just near Belgrave. Had 5mm in about 10 minutes. Peak rainfall rate of 60mm/hr. Suspect the area near Tecoma/Belgrave will have seen some flash flooding as it was developing rapidly.

Also did a quick run around the area. Looks like about 1mm for most areas to our north up to Olinda. Around Mt Dandy it looked like around 10mm+. Lots of washouts in drive ways etc up there.

Really surprised to score today - and a nice top up for the tanks and veggies Very Happy

Still plenty of time for more to fire up, though clearly need a trigger like the sea breeze to get it going.

EDIT - Monbulk up to 20mm and still falling, 10mm at Mt Dandy, and 13 at Montrose.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Oct 29, 2009 1:54 pm

Sister who lives on the northern end of Silvan Dam has had 23mm and flash flooding.. Sounds awesome.

2mm here today.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Lily on Thu Oct 29, 2009 2:02 pm

Well, we got about five drops of rain on the windscreen and are now shrouded in smoke, you can smell it heavy in the air. Told you you'd get some Piggy tongue

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  AmaroK on Thu Oct 29, 2009 2:16 pm

Really hard to pick what the winds are doing, Every AWS i look at seems to report a different wind direction, which no doubt will not help anything further develop tonight. Tomorrow is looking great, will make sure the camera is charged up and in the car just in case.

Temps currently back up to about 26 here, and its very muggy. Not looking foward to going home if the smoke down there is too bad.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  mick on Thu Oct 29, 2009 2:30 pm

Nothing down here, what we had has headed east and is now lost in the murk of smoke.

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Re: Warm, humid and thundery - Vic 28 Oct -> cup day

Post  Hinezy on Thu Oct 29, 2009 3:11 pm

Great to see those Dew Points well up into the mid teens! It's very muggy at the moment.. It feels like I'm back in QLD in the summer time!

The shear looks a little better for tomorrow.. especially to the west and north west of Melbourne so hopefully any storms that develop can get a bit more organisation happening and be a little longer tracked. I wouldn't be surprised if there were a couple of short lived supercells around the place tomorrow with 25kts NNW around 850hpa and 25kt SW up around 500hpa! Then if the seabreeze rolls in and injects a bit more moisture then things could certainly fire up in a big way! Looking at those current DP's in the north there must be plenty of moisture feeding down from the north.. it's just a pity the uppers aren't a tad cooler.. but with some nice CAPE around north of the city i definitely reckon there could be some large hail around the place tomorrow!

The potential's there for quite a show tomorrow afternoon and night! Now i just have to get away from work early!

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Power Storm on Thu Oct 29, 2009 3:40 pm

Woke up to very convective skies this morning, and very humid too! Though most cloud cleared during the day allowing the temperatures here to get to 31 degrees (7 degrees above what the BoM forecasted and 5 degrees above what I forecasted). There was re-development of convection as well this afternoon, but yet again most has cleared apart from to my west where it still looks like its growing. Latest Sat Pic looks like its growing too across the SW part of Vic and radar is showing some small cells developing, so may be in with something still this evening.

Radar though looked fantastic elsewhere this afternoon, a good start to the storm season, expect plenty more even better days than today this Summer!

Will discuss tomorrows prospects shortly.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  norfolk on Thu Oct 29, 2009 3:49 pm

well it has remained dry here and now despite the amazingly looking clouds and the hint of storms. 30.3c here, so after all the cold in the early part of the month was great to feel some warmth.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Thu Oct 29, 2009 3:51 pm

If I am looking right, GFS has LI values of -10 or below for some parts of Western Vic tomorrow!!?? Is this a mistake? Surely

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Johnno on Thu Oct 29, 2009 4:07 pm

Laps and Mlaps has a fair bit of moisture about tomorrow with some handy totals about not always but usually these 2 models do quite well in these troughy stormy outbreaks so we shall see how we go

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Johnno on Thu Oct 29, 2009 4:10 pm

Laps and Mlaps has a fair bit of moisture about tomorrow with some handy totals about not always but usually these 2 models do quite well in these troughy stormy outbreaks so we shall see how we go

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Thu Oct 29, 2009 4:13 pm

Nothing happening here atm even though we look to be right on the edge of the seabreeze convergence, (which has a habit of flooding in well inland in the evening in these setups). Likely to cool off rapidly now. Tomorrow of course looks insane but it won't be much fun at work. Hopefully it continues well into the night like models suggest and tends to an area of thundery rain.

Wouldn't be surprised to see it all flatten out into thundery rain areas overnight tomorrow.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  hillybilly on Thu Oct 29, 2009 4:28 pm

NOGAPS, LAPS, Meso LAPS, JMA and GASP all suggest widespread falls tomorrow. Not sure why, but GFS has very unstable conditions but not much rain. EC is pretty dis-interested (just light falls), but doesn't always do well with convection (it completely missed today's action).

Strikes me that tomorrow is going to be hot with 850T up by another 1-2C on today. Will need plenty of cloud not to see lots of low/mid 30s. Widespread storms but not a lot to focus them.

Curious split for the weekend into next week. In one corner we have ACCESS, JMA, NOGAPS all having the low developing near Vic with significant rain. EC and GFS have the low diving south with a potential scorcher for Monday. Am hoping for the rainy scenario Razz

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  norfolk on Thu Oct 29, 2009 4:42 pm

hmmmm can I say I am hoping for the scorcher?

In all honesty though....if tomorrow is going to be 28, would we assume more cloud, earlier seabreeze or what? Surely if tomorrow is going to be similar to today we should have a similar max?

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Johnno on Thu Oct 29, 2009 5:03 pm

hillybilly wrote:NOGAPS, LAPS, Meso LAPS, JMA and GASP all suggest widespread falls tomorrow. Not sure why, but GFS has very unstable conditions but not much rain. EC is pretty dis-interested (just light falls), but doesn't always do well with convection (it completely missed today's action).

Strikes me that tomorrow is going to be hot with 850T up by another 1-2C on today. Will need plenty of cloud not to see lots of low/mid 30s. Widespread storms but not a lot to focus them.

Curious split for the weekend into next week. In one corner we have ACCESS, JMA, NOGAPS all having the low developing near Vic with significant rain. EC and GFS have the low diving south with a potential scorcher for Monday. Am hoping for the rainy scenario Razz

What about the wildcard David... UKMet which way is that tilting? The EC/GFS scenario or JMA/NOGAPS scenario?

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Johnno on Thu Oct 29, 2009 5:05 pm

Call me dumb David but is 'ACCESS' a new model?

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Power Storm on Thu Oct 29, 2009 5:07 pm

Johnno wrote:Call me dumb David but is 'ACCESS' a new model?

Just what I was thinking, but I did hear the BoM mention ACCESS whilst I was at work experience.

Also, I did hear them mentioning that a new model or two may be introduced into their forecasting over the next several months or year.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Power Storm on Thu Oct 29, 2009 5:41 pm

I think you are reading it wrong ILS... Majority if LI values are around -4 to -5 with an area in the southwest Wimmera at -6.

So for tomorrow, I see scattered showers and thunderstorms developing, starting over the southwest during the morning then extending to remaining areas of the state during the day. Activity IMO has another chance to become widespread, particularly about the ranges and near the advancing trough in southwest Victoria. Severe thunderstorms are likely tomorrow as well with supercelluar activity likely in some spots at times. I agree with Hinezy, large hail may be a feature tomorrow as well as flash flooding despite shear looking like it will move storms somewhat quicker, but still slowly, tomorrow. Damaging winds as well possible in storms near the trough approaching the state.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  The Watto on Thu Oct 29, 2009 5:46 pm

I have to say that Fri and Sat look to be similar days to Today although I am expecting more cloud and rain about tomorrow but more sun on Saturday. I reckon both days will easily reach 30.
As far as the front next week... The models are chopping and changing but I have a feeling it will cross late monday early tuesday leaving a cooller 2-3 days with the odd shower but nothing at all significant.
After that 2-3 warmer days into next weekend

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Thu Oct 29, 2009 5:51 pm

Power Storm wrote:I think you are reading it wrong ILS... Majority if LI values are around -4 to -5 with an area in the southwest Wimmera at -6.

I was referring to the image on this page...it is colour coded, it makes sense that it is an error or I am misreading though...

http://weather.farmonline.com.au/models/index.jsp?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&mt=gfs&mc=lftx&mso=0&mh=24&focus=mh

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Power Storm on Thu Oct 29, 2009 6:05 pm

I think it is the same there ILS, the highest I can see is -6 to -7. It is hard to read, the blue look similar, but I don't think its an error, you may be misreading. Smile

You can see the LI and CAPE values more clearly here mate, as well as shear etc...: http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/stormcast.html

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

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