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Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

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Victoria:  Thunderstorm Outbreak.  October 28th-November 3rd 2009 - Page 22 Empty Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  norfolk Sat Oct 31, 2009 7:16 am

I agree, last night here was not as spectacular as it could have been.
The positives: May have seen about 1 or 2mm of rain
Got to see some lightning (some was quite spectacular)
It happened at night so it made to lightning look even better

The negatives: Didn't hear much thunder
No hail to speak of
Not that much rainfall really (look at positives)
Did not last that long

Oh well, today is going to be great temperature wise, maybe the 33 I was expecting yesterday will be reached today. As long as the wind change doesnt move up the bay. I am sitting on 28c here which I think is the warmest part of the Melbourne area.

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Post  Karl Lijnders Sat Oct 31, 2009 7:32 am

Another day and another storm opportunity.

Expect the eastern ranges to fire first and then the suburbs to the west and north of Melbourne. The convection is about to get going in the mid layers and there is some lower level convection about the western sky.

Suspect 1-2pm for echoes to appear on the Melbourne radar

Southerly winds in the bay will be a focus for the severe thunderstorms and possibly could create the right environment for HP Supercells which were a feature across eastern suburbs last night.
Karl Lijnders
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Post  Karl Lijnders Sat Oct 31, 2009 7:47 am

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria

Fire Weather Briefing for Victoria
Issued at 10:40 am EDT on Saturday 31 October 2009.

Estimates Today:
Fresh northerly winds this morning are likely to only drop by a few kmh during
the afternoon if the skies remain clear. However extensive showers and
thunderstorms are going to develop and should spread into cloud areas that
should inhibit the winds. A trough that moved into central Victoria last night
has retograded back west again and will move east again into central areas
during the afternoon. There is loads of airmass moisture right through the
atmosphere which is keeping RH high regardless of the high temperatures. This
also means that any thunderstorm development is likely to have heavy rainfall
leading to flash flooding. It may dry out just enough to inhibit thunderstorms
in the far southwest and the far northwest Mallee but a chance still exists.
Widespread development is likely over most of the state, and will last into the
late evening. Rain = yes on the districts is abit unrealistic due to the
spatially sporadic nature of thunderstorms.

Observational Network Status:
Looks fine

Weather Situation:
High pressure systems are located over the Bight and the Tasman Sea while a
weak low pressure trough is over the west of the State. The trough will meander
through southern Victoria later Saturday and across the north on Sunday.
Meanwhile, a low pressure system will develop south of the Bight with an
associated cold front expected to move across western Victoria on Monday and
through the east by early Tuesday. Another high pressure system will then
develop over the Bight later on Tuesday.

24 Hour Rainfall to 9am:
Sporadic rainfall totals due to the nature of the showers/thunderstorms. The
southeast suburbs of Melbourne recieved up to 30mm with the thunderstorm
activity, but generally totals were between 5-15mm.

Weather Today:
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms contracting slowly eastward during
the afternoon with local heavy falls possible in the east. Isolated showers to
follow near the coast. Generally warm to hot inland. Light to moderate
northeast to northwesterly wind shifting southwesterly in the west. Local
afternoon coastal seabreezes.

-----------------------------
Being close to the larger storms right on the trough line, Melbourne could see another 30-50mm in some parts this afternoon.
Karl Lijnders
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Post  windyrob Sat Oct 31, 2009 8:03 am

Here's my first youtube clip. Not very high quality as its hard to shoot in the dark, in a storm, in a car!
Still it gives you an idea of what the rain and wind was like!
Dont forget to turn the volume up Very Happy

Cheers
windyrob
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Post  norfolk Sat Oct 31, 2009 8:13 am

So who thinks the southerlies will win over the northerlies?

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Post  dagget Sat Oct 31, 2009 8:15 am

Not me, wind all from the North here, sunny and quite warm temp says 30 degrees already....

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Post  Proteous Sat Oct 31, 2009 8:19 am

29/17 Deg. A light SW drift here atm. Some cu starting to develop over the ranges, so one would think there would be some storms in that area this afternoon. I fear the Southerly breeze will inhibit development at my location as it did yesterday, need the trough to make it's way East so maybe a better chance tonight?

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Post  norfolk Sat Oct 31, 2009 8:20 am

Oh no I asked I very melbourne bay centric question! I meant to ask who thinks the southerlies will defeat the northerlies in Melbourne?

Apologies

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Post  Karl Lijnders Sat Oct 31, 2009 8:23 am

Yes they will ride up tonight but the southerly winds through the southern bay and Bellarine Peninsula is courtesy of last nights storms and the trough retrograding over the region. Has shrouded the Geelong region in low cloud and sea fog closer to the coast.

SSW winds developing tonight. I hope they don't develop so we can get some thunderstorrms tomorrow Razz
Karl Lijnders
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Post  droughtbreaker Sat Oct 31, 2009 8:24 am

Hopefully because then we'll be on or near the seabreeze convergence line here and storms will explode locally. Just 23.6C here atm, we tend to be a lot cooler, up to 6C cooler than Melbourne when there is a moderate to fresh northerly.

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Post  AmaroK Sat Oct 31, 2009 8:25 am

Well final figures from lastnight. i esitmate about 30mm place. Was atleast a 4inches of water in the bottom of my wheely bin. and back yard is still extremely damp. Went to bed not long after the bulk of the system had past me but reckon i could hear thunder for atleast another hour or two afterwards.

Possibly one of the more impresive events i have seen in recent years, and a little worrying with how much CG there was once the storm was ontop of me, glad i got off the roof before the rains hit.

Did not record any hail here, unlike others not too far away, so obviously peoples figures are going to vary a lot.
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Post  Karl Lijnders Sat Oct 31, 2009 8:26 am

Going to storms firing down in the areas that are quite a lot cooler. This is due to the mid layers still not changing, it is a very shallow southerly down there which will develop further but it is not moving at all north!

29C here and rising!!
Karl Lijnders
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Post  droughtbreaker Sat Oct 31, 2009 8:26 am

I know it's very early days and several hours before convection is supposed to kick off but still i don't like seeing completely clear skies, was hoping for at least a bit of surface based Cu at this stage of the day. Just a bit of ACCAS and AC generally that has developed earlier this morning and now dissipated.

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Post  Karl Lijnders Sat Oct 31, 2009 8:29 am

Jason did you see the pulsating CG that turned the sky green for about 5 seconds after the bolt hit the power grid in the Noble Park region?? So bizarre, never seen anything like it!! Was the biggest CG of the night here!

Glad you got about as much as here!!

Andrew calm your nerves, it is only really 1030am and I think given the atmosphere, the worrying part of your statement is confusing..
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Post  norfolk Sat Oct 31, 2009 8:41 am

don't like the fact laverton has dropped 4 degrees! Sad

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Post  Karl Lijnders Sat Oct 31, 2009 8:50 am

No concern here Norf. Storm chart reflects the fact the southerly winds are shallow and so storms will be also in the mid layers. Looking like Andrew your going to have fun this afternoon.
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Post  norfolk Sat Oct 31, 2009 8:53 am

I am just concerned karl that we may not get the 33c I was banking on today. Ok call me selfish! LOL

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Post  Rhino Sat Oct 31, 2009 8:59 am

Going by aviation forecast, trough seems to be sitting in a line of around Edenhope-Avalon. Pretty good read Very Happy

21:22 UTC, 30/10/2009
AMEND AREA FORECAST 302130 TO 311100 AREA 30/32.

AMD OVERVIEW:
TROUGH NEAR PILTA/YEDE/YMAV/FLIKI AND SLOW MOVING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
BECOMING WIDESPREAD NEAR AND EAST OF TROUGH AFTER 01Z WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HAIL, HEAVY FALLS AND HIGH WIND SQUALLS WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. FOG AND LOW CLOUD NEAR/S RANGES WEST OF TROUGH
CONTRACTING TO SEA/COAST BY 01Z. LOW CLOUD WITH PRECIPITATION.

SUBDIVISIONS:
A: E OF TROUGH
B: W OF TROUGH

AMD WIND:
2000 5000 7000 10000 14000 18500
A: 350/20 330/20 320/15 290/20 PS04 270/20 MS04 260/20 MS13
B: 270/10 320/30 310/35 310/40 PS05 290/30 MS02 290/30 MS12
REMARKS:
1. WINDS ABOVE 3000FT UP TO 15KT STRONGER IN A NEAR TROUGH.
2. WINDS ABOVE 7000FT TENDING VRB/10 E OF YBRN/CHOMP.


CLOUD:
SCT CB 5000/40000 AND TCU 5000/25000 AS PER TS IN OVERVIEW.
AREAS BKN ST 1000/2000 AS PER LOW CLOUD IN OVERVIEW, BASE LOCALLY
500FT W OF TROUGH.
SCT CU 5000/18000 LAND, TENDING BKN NEAR SHRA.
SCT AC/AS ABOVE 10000, MOSTLY NEAR PRECIPITATION.

Rhino. Smile Smile

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Post  AmaroK Sat Oct 31, 2009 9:01 am

Hey Karl, missed that lastnight, but did witness a similar thing in the 2003 storms, only i was within 500 meters of where the sky went green. Very bizzare, its like the entire air becomes thick with ionised particles.
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Post  Karl Lijnders Sat Oct 31, 2009 9:02 am

Boys and girls of the western ranges, keep us updated on the convection development. Can see some AccAs about the place still.

That is an impressive avaition forecast.

Tomorrow we are still a chance here in Melbourne!!
Karl Lijnders
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Post  mick Sat Oct 31, 2009 9:04 am

With the races being on TV, we get the best weathercam in town all day!

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Post  Proteous Sat Oct 31, 2009 9:05 am

Convective towers going up near the ranges here. 30/17

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Post  Malleefarmer Sat Oct 31, 2009 9:07 am

Well humid as here this morning thankfully there is a good breeze t keep the air moving. Some falls of up to 40mm up here yesterday and some reports of hail too. Very slow moving storms and some people got a few storms so totals were quite high in isloated spots. West of me there were places where no rain fell at all so shows we were right on the line of convergence. Dunno about today but geez if something stirs there will be big totals with all the moisture about. Hope we miss out really as we will be harvesting within a week and rain now can do damage. after mid December bring it on!

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Post  hillybilly Sat Oct 31, 2009 9:10 am

Very nice sounding this morning for nice wet storms. Once we hit 30C it should start firing very quickly and at about 31C the tops will race towards 40,000 feet. There is good NW steering above the surface which should be able to push things off the ranges.

Hope to see the first Cu within the next 30 minutes with temperatures pushing up steadily.

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Post  Madmel Sat Oct 31, 2009 9:13 am

Have experienced the good ol greenage in the thunderstorms, happened to me about 4 years ago when it hit something pretty darn close to home and I have never hit the deck so fast in my life!!! The thunderclap was deafening and something I dont excatly want to experience to a close call nature again LOL.

Was warming up fast this morning, cleaned the evap and then the seabreeze started kicking in so I dont think I see a 30.C day today unless the northerlies win in later. Plants in teh back yard look like they have had a orgasmic experience last night LOL havent seen the backyard look so green and uplifted! Twisted Evil

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