Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  samueliza on Thu Oct 29, 2009 10:11 am

drove through ballarat at about 8 this morning and caught the edge of a very intense shower. Wipers on extra fast for a good 3 minutes. Currently in Avoca for work. Very hot here, would say approaching 30 if not already. Looks like some decent what you guys call "aCca's" building to my north west atm. Shame im driving back to melbourne in an hour or two. Sad

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  AmaroK on Thu Oct 29, 2009 10:12 am

brayden wrote:It has begun! Cu build up to NE/N/NW of here. Once it pops Wink

Yup great formations started bout 10 15 minutes ago north of me. Great view from my office window here.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  hillybilly on Thu Oct 29, 2009 10:28 am

Is very warm up here (southern Dandenongs) - 25C with the DP jumping around between 14 and 18C. It drops when the winds go more northerly and rises when the northerly relaxed. Pretty clear that there is a shallow very moist slightly cooler air mass hugging the coast in the light sea breeze.

Is a burn off up here later today (6 hectares on Hilton Road) which could make for some pretty nice pyro Cu.

Nothing happening up here but the first storm has just fired up near Kinglake Very Happy

Need to see 30C to low 30s across the metro area to get things really going.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  rikjpool on Thu Oct 29, 2009 10:32 am

Quite a nice field going over atm here. Im not sure weather to stay here or head east? A fair few Lenticular looking clouds about atm as well...
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  AmaroK on Thu Oct 29, 2009 10:34 am

Cracked 28 now in the back carpark. Northern horizon looking messy, but impressive still.seems to be barely a breath of wind out there at the moment, very warm and very still. what time are we expecting the sea breazes to kick in?
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Flangfest on Thu Oct 29, 2009 10:42 am

First couple of cells popping up around Kinglake and Buxton. Hope they don't stay there. Evil or Very Mad

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Thu Oct 29, 2009 10:44 am

Just hit 30.5 here.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Sniper on Thu Oct 29, 2009 10:45 am

Red core in Kinglake cell, with slight Nth movement.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  rikjpool on Thu Oct 29, 2009 10:51 am

sunbury and melb airport about to take of as well...
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Johnno on Thu Oct 29, 2009 10:52 am

lots of cloud now developing just NW, N, NE and East of me the seabreeze convergance is about 2-5ks just North of me hence the build up through these areas. Haze and SB here now.

Monday still looks interesting in my book EC keeps pushing that low South of us but NOGAPS keeps developing it over us in a trough interesting to also see JMA now come more into line with NOGAPS and GASP also fairly similar. Knowing EC's accuracey I would say it is more likely to be right but not discounting the other models just yet.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  AmaroK on Thu Oct 29, 2009 11:03 am

radar showing cells firing up west of the bay now. Really getting going fast now. next couple of hours could be interesting.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  hillybilly on Thu Oct 29, 2009 11:13 am


Monday still looks interesting in my book EC keeps pushing that low South of us but NOGAPS keeps developing it over us in a trough interesting to also see JMA now come more into line with NOGAPS and GASP also fairly similar. Knowing EC's accuracey I would say it is more likely to be right but not discounting the other models just yet.

Curious thing - Johnno - is that the EC ensemble also pushes the low across us (or just south). That suggests a pretty good chance that the updated EC tonight will flip to be more like JMA/NOGAPS. The ensemble is also a lot wetter - has about 20-30mm through central areas between now and Tuesday.

Radar is starting to look very nice. Just need something 10km further south. We have 27C up here with the lightest of southerlies and chunky Cu popping up over heard.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Thu Oct 29, 2009 11:19 am

Well I would say it is now summer up here with low 30s temps and some minor convection going on. Don't think we will get anything today up here not humid really so hopefully tomorrow.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Lily on Thu Oct 29, 2009 11:20 am

Wow, look at the radar go! Love it cheers

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Sniper on Thu Oct 29, 2009 11:25 am

With activity already underway today I wont post todays BOM TS Chart. However tomorrows looks tasty!!

A trough will enter the west of the State late in the day and moisture will continue to increase across the State. With higher temperatures and a weak upper trough moving over Victoria, instability will also continue to increase to moderate to high levels across the State. Thunderstorms are likely to start in the southwest and over the east ranges during the morning, extending to most areas of the State during the day. The main risk of severe thunderstorms in the east will be due to slow moving thunderstorms producing heavy rain and local flash flooding.


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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Twister on Thu Oct 29, 2009 11:29 am

Heading for NW burbs great convection of chasing hell yeah spring is here

0408827662 if anything big or good pops up

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  hillybilly on Thu Oct 29, 2009 11:45 am

Convection is clearly organised on the sea breeze front (the Viz pic shows a nice arc of convection about 100km long just north of the bay). Also a few nice Cbs going up west of Colac. Mesolaps suggests the sea breeze front will be with us well into the evening so will presumably be the focus of storms. Would imagine that the storms will feed of the convergence and also amplify the convergence.

The nice storm just south of the airport seems to be edging southward. This complex has already dropped 5mm around Diggers Rest.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Luken on Thu Oct 29, 2009 11:54 am

Looking better and better overhead here. Slowly building from the WNW.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  AmaroK on Thu Oct 29, 2009 11:59 am

The sun is all but gone as those cells move further east. Very slow movement on the rain tho, could be very good for development, and give anyone in the area a nice long show. Although its not terribly lightning active, with the convergence, could it be possible we might see super cell activity in the west in the evening?
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  firestorm on Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:03 pm

in a very light seabreeze here can see the convergance line to the north expect cells pop up along to colac some rapid devlopment out that way. Suspect

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  hillybilly on Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:12 pm

The sea breeze has dropped out up here a Cu are going up really quickly. Stuff west of the airport is also digging south suggesting a possible southward shift in the convection. Wouldn't be surprised to see some cells explode over the eastern burbs in the next 30 minutes.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  AmaroK on Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:18 pm

Radar suggesting the melbourne rain shadow kicking in. Having said that, We just had our first huge boom here in bayswater. Cells will let go any minute now. Could be a great afternoon. Excitement kicking in.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  The Watto on Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:18 pm

Melb has hit 30 deg for the first time of the warmer months

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  The Watto on Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:19 pm

Melb has hit 30 deg for the first time of the warmer months

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:20 pm

Just had Thunder here
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

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