Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Sun Nov 01, 2009 2:18 pm

GFS has gone crazy tomorrow, if it pans out the way they have it Canberra and Sydney have the potential for some huge storms as well. There is a big clump of LI -7 at 5pm through Canberra!

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Power Storm on Sun Nov 01, 2009 2:21 pm

We will have a stronger lifting mechanism than Canberra though ILS. We have the strong front, they have a weakening trough. But yeah, chances out there too, with 100% confidence for here.

Just come across this on the Vic BoM page as well ...

Fire Weather Warning
for the Mallee forecast district.

Issued at 4:15 pm EDT on Sunday 1 November 2009.
Monday:

Extreme Fire Danger [75-99] is forecast for the following forecast district:
Mallee
Maximum temperatures around 39 degrees, relative humidity down to 10% and winds averaging 40 km/h are expected. CFA and DSE advise that some fires will be unpredictable, uncontrollable and fast moving.


Last edited by Power Storm on Sun Nov 01, 2009 2:25 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Sun Nov 01, 2009 2:24 pm

Power Storm wrote:We will have a stronger lifting mechanism than Canberra though ILS. We have the strong front, they have a weakening trough. But yeah, chances out there too, with 100% confidence for here.

Will it be as strong as the late Aug one with all those high winds? That was insane, it was when we had downdrafts in Lilydale and trees were snapped everywhere.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sun Nov 01, 2009 2:30 pm

Winds with the front will be nearer to 100kmh and possibly higher with thunderstorms. Really comes down to the structure and behaviour of the storms on an individual or broadscale level.

Looking for around 10mm here tomorrow to make it a 60mm event.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Sun Nov 01, 2009 2:32 pm

Dps and temps are a lot less critical with a cold front...remember its lifting the whole air mass on a broad scale..i have seen thunderstorms develop with a front when it was 42/3...it squeezes every last drop of moisture out. the type of winds they are talking about indicates lifting will be massive..i cant see tomorrow as being anything but an enormous line of storms on the change..
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Sun Nov 01, 2009 2:37 pm

Doppler radar is very interesting at the moment...shows the strong winds embedded in the cloud mass going through Anglesea area. Then you have the normal stuff in Melbourne area.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Sun Nov 01, 2009 2:44 pm

Well air is drying out up here now with the SW winds but still pretty warm. Can see the storms up to our N right round the the E. Funny looking at the radar(mildura) shows storms developing near the river moving ENE and stuff in SA going directly south. All the while that rainband sneaking into SW vic. interesting.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sun Nov 01, 2009 2:46 pm

Expect the middle layers to destabalise further across the state overnight which could increase showers across much of the west and north.

Ely winds developing over the western side of Melbourne. Things will go NE overnight.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Johnno on Sun Nov 01, 2009 3:08 pm

Hopeing to get some mm's next day or 2 cos after that it isn't looking to flash both GFS and EC have us with very little rain and a major block with a high just East of us in no hurry to move til at least my birthday/Remerance day so I am hopeing they are wrong.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  hillybilly on Sun Nov 01, 2009 3:09 pm

Been a very strange day up here sitting ~200m below the inversion. Had fog most of the time, and on a number of occasion it has turned to drizzle with viz down to around 50-100m. Finally broke at about 4pm but looks to be reforming now. At times we have been 3-4C cooler than Dunns Hill which is 150m up the hill. Walked around Dunns Hill just before lunch and above 500m is was sunny and muggy with northerlies and below that it was cold and foggy with southerlies.

LAPS and MESOLAPS look great for tomorrow with solid easterly flow slowly going northeast during the day. This brings up very humid air into central areas with DPs up to 18C. This sets the seen for very low LI during the day ahead of the approaching front. IMHO looks great for storms for us and with high temperatures, high dewpoints and decent wind they could get rather nasty.

PS storms just east of Canberra look really nasty with clear rotation.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Sun Nov 01, 2009 3:19 pm

Yeah been watching them for a while...it seems to have organised itself now. Interesting to watch over the next half an hour to see if it grows through the core.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Nov 01, 2009 3:26 pm

I understand that regardless there will still be thunderstorms along the line of the front and severe with a squall line, it's rainfall totals though that are more the issue. The difference between a 33C/13 day and a 35C/8 day (hypothetically speaking) is quite significant when you start considering precipitation from storms. It could be the difference between getting 5mm and 50mm.

Anyway, we'll see what happens, too much speculation is probably not a good thing. I'm sure we'll see something really good. Very Happy

Expecting an awesome sunset tonight if the stratus and mist stays away (it's cleared again) with a 'mackerel sky' out there, some of it in the form of 'wave cloud', cirrus and Cs. Also saw some lenticularis today. Pity it's not still around because that particular cloud produces all sorts of crazy colours on sunset.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Nov 01, 2009 3:44 pm

After reading David's summary I am a lot more confident now. Hopefully it comes off.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Power Storm on Sun Nov 01, 2009 4:16 pm

Its going to be real interesting, thats for sure. I think the change will hold back until I get home though thankfully.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sun Nov 01, 2009 4:54 pm

Quite mobile storm activity moving in through E SA from the north. Could start affecting border areas in the next 6hrs.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Rhino on Sun Nov 01, 2009 5:53 pm

Well anything will be better than nothing, and thats about all we've had out of this system, sorry 1.5mm. Was always going to be one of those systems but with all that humidity about thought we would have got a bit more, still have'nt got the 5mm I wanted. Rolling Eyes Would love to get a nice rainband with an embedded storm, but will most likely get 35C, strong winds and no rain and evaporate my 1.5mm of rainfall out of the ground. Laughing

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sun Nov 01, 2009 6:01 pm

I think you will get 5-10mm tomorrow.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Rhino on Sun Nov 01, 2009 6:05 pm

Well I don't want to be greedy Karl, I only need 3.5mm to get to my 5mm. Wink

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sun Nov 01, 2009 6:36 pm

Should be a decent band moving through the central areas this time tomorrow night. I understand the greedy. I want to have 60mm come tomorrow night. 47mm for the event Wink
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sun Nov 01, 2009 7:40 pm

Quite impressed that the storm on the W border has continued with lightning over the past few hours. And the increase of lightning from mid level storms ahead of the trough is a sign of what we will be dealing with tomorrow.

A very exciting 24-36hrs to come. That storm complex over the NW border will swing SE through C areas if it holds by 6am.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Nov 01, 2009 7:40 pm

Any explanations why none of the major models, i.e. GFS,EC,NOGAPS and JMA want a bar of this tomorrow and never have? (Just opened up 06z GFS)

On paper it looks like it should be a very significant event tomorrow and it's really unnerving to see more or less big fat zeros for rainfall with the front on all the models except LAPS and MLAPS.

With any luck they don't know something we don't. Embarassed

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Twister on Sun Nov 01, 2009 7:52 pm

I to am not that excited. Yes there will be showers and thunderstorms around with the odd patch of rain but nothing major.

It was almost 40c up north today and will def be 40c up there again tomorrow also pretty dry to the Nw as well and with gusty N NW winds things will dry out quite a bit.
Also there will be a lot of cloud tomorrow about, get a few hours of sun shine but think much of the south will be in mostly cloudy skies not as bad as Friday though.

Don't want to sound party popper but that's how I see it, things will dry out a bit it will become dryer in most parts of the atmosphere, not a lot but a bit dryer, There will be a fair amount of cloud around and it will be quite windy from the N NW as well.
Forcing is Much better though so that is good news, there will still be Showers and thunderstorms around but don't think it will be like friday, more like yesterday but more defined along the front and a lot windier.

The cooler less Humid weather on Tuesday will be a big shock, wont know what to do with my self lol.

BTW temps up North have been VERY summer like Last 4 days in Mildura 33c 36c 38c 39c and going for 39c again tomorrow. Over nights haven't dropped below 20c in 4 nights to crazy stuff up north. so lucky down here

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  floydlove on Sun Nov 01, 2009 7:53 pm

2mm here last night. Was in Prahan, came out of the venue to witness heavy rain and a few flangs of lightning. Nothing overly impressive but good enough to see.

Hopefully tomorrow arvo/night can go out with a bang. Smile

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  DC449 on Sun Nov 01, 2009 8:24 pm

Pretty Exciting weather, the past few days, hopefully we get some nice storms tomorrow with alot of rain!
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  rikjpool on Sun Nov 01, 2009 8:26 pm

hey guys, heres quick vid showing the convection from the calder highway looking south shot between 6 and 6:30pm last night. Sorry about the aspect ration, i have to work out how to convert this stupid JVC crap properly...
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

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