Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  floydlove on Sun Nov 01, 2009 7:53 pm

2mm here last night. Was in Prahan, came out of the venue to witness heavy rain and a few flangs of lightning. Nothing overly impressive but good enough to see.

Hopefully tomorrow arvo/night can go out with a bang. Smile

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  DC449 on Sun Nov 01, 2009 8:24 pm

Pretty Exciting weather, the past few days, hopefully we get some nice storms tomorrow with alot of rain!

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  rikjpool on Sun Nov 01, 2009 8:26 pm

hey guys, heres quick vid showing the convection from the calder highway looking south shot between 6 and 6:30pm last night. Sorry about the aspect ration, i have to work out how to convert this stupid JVC crap properly...

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sun Nov 01, 2009 8:34 pm

Andrew,

It is funny you say that on the back of the major models doing so poorly the past few days. US had less than 5mm for us this week and I have had 50mm. So I think don't worry about half runs of the models, looking at all the finer detail because really it counts for nothing in these situations. Will know more when we wake up. It is looking very promising so far and may hold when we wake tomorrow.

Rikki nice time lapse. I love the structure...my profile picture is the Geelong Cell at 6:30pm last night.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  James on Sun Nov 01, 2009 8:40 pm

and here is my latest time lapse video of convection taking place over boronia and the dandenongs, this is from last nights storm development

It would be a good idea to watermark your stills and video before posting publicly, channel 9 and a few other media outlets have been known to take what they want and air them as if they were theirs!




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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sun Nov 01, 2009 8:51 pm

Excellent timelapse work James... gorgeous!!!

Sky is still fairly reasonable out there. Thin high cloud with some AccAs. Can see the moon well still so that is good.

Southerly drift still.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sun Nov 01, 2009 8:56 pm

And the DPs across SA are not bad - in the high single figures and low teens across the eastern and southern regions. Still supporting some middle level convection in the Murrylands and east of Adelaide. Also some strong middle level cells over KI.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Sun Nov 01, 2009 10:08 pm

We may get a shower yet.... That large storm which moved east of Claire has made it all the way to Hopetoun and still has the odd strike in it so it lasted far longer than I thought. We have SW breeze that I thought would have killed off any weather but it is making it down here.....bugger.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Flangfest on Mon Nov 02, 2009 12:46 am

Fair amount of lightning in the bite already with the front approaching the south west of the state. Looking forward to waking up to another storm afternoon / evening Very Happy

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Mon Nov 02, 2009 4:21 am

Set up is as good as can be, wind will be light easterly most of the day so no drying out to rapidly of the atmosphere, Northerlies are not to come in till this evening which is a plus..

Should be a gradual climb to an amended 29, which is perfect, however the daily estimates have dropped the LAL from 2 to 1 which means a little less convinced of significant change, or it could just be the timing which they have between 9pm and 1am...so lets hope it gets warm and humid this arvo..

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  hillybilly on Mon Nov 02, 2009 4:22 am

Any explanations why none of the major models, i.e. GFS,EC,NOGAPS and JMA want a bar of this tomorrow and never have? (Just opened up 06z GFS)

Andrew in thundery situations with weak forcing I tend to find looking at the instability indices is a much better guide than looking at the rainfall. LAPS today - for example - has LI dropping to about -2 over central areas late in the day associated with surface temperatures near 30C and a DP near 15C. The rainfall has a large area of 1 to 5mm developing. The combination suggests storms, that when smeared out to give 1 to 5mm of rainfall, but like recent days this could be a mix of 1mm to 20mm totals.

Today's forecast looks good - a shower or two and the chance of a storm. These will likely fire very late as the front moves into central areas and taps into much better moisture (the west is pretty dry, and the mid level below the cloud band will turn much of the frontal rain into virga). I can't see a rain band with the front, just showers and storms (and I do wonder if we could even see some dust???).

BTW nice sharp front for tomorrow morning (late morning to around lunch near Melbourne). This looks very blustery with a good humidity max. Could send the race goers running for cover Smile

Am expecting about 10mm out of the sequences in Ferny Creek - but today could see anything between 0.2mm and 20mm Razz

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Power Storm on Mon Nov 02, 2009 4:45 am

Mostly cloudy here atm with some showers occurring, but I see this as good news as the moisture will be forced into hanging around here all day, and hopefully with some sunshine before the front moves through late today, we will be talking. It still looks quite nasty to me some of the storms if they develop... Flash flooding biggest concern on the eastern ranges whilst damaging winds and large hail for the western parts moving to central areas. I am at school so cannot add the storm chart today for when it becomes available, Wes, you able to do that?

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Mon Nov 02, 2009 5:29 am

Well looks like we are in for another warm one up here and hope we can get away without too much rain. that shower I was talking about in the wee hours ended up fizzling before it reached us. Very surprised it got that far.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Sniper on Mon Nov 02, 2009 6:16 am

Not overly warm this morning. Wont be a rapid rise to 29, unlike Saturday, where it was 25 by 10am.

Jake, no probs mate, will post charts when they become available.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Nov 02, 2009 6:52 am

Doesn't look any bigger of a deal today than previous days IMO. Instability values are lower, it's drying out from the west and now the temperature has downgraded with a lot of misty low cloud hanging around. The front is coming in too late to have any major impact on central regions. GFS is onto the system now but really struggles to reach Melbourne starting to dissipate it over western suburbs.

Not meaning to be deliberately negative but that is just the way I see it. Sure there may be storms with damaging winds etc. but I can't see them being high precipitation at all.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Mon Nov 02, 2009 6:52 am

Looking good early, high DPs, temp rising, nice clouds out west, some shower activity to boost humidity higher as well.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  AmaroK on Mon Nov 02, 2009 7:22 am

Hey Guys,
Sorry for the lack of posts over the last day or so, been a very busy weekend. Things are loooking good in terms of the moisture around. However i think most action is going to be around the far west, and north eastern parts of the state. Could see some modest local falls during the evening, but i think the great sunny weather will be the biggest highlight for metro areas today.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  norfolk on Mon Nov 02, 2009 7:39 am

AmaroK wrote:Hey Guys,
Sorry for the lack of posts over the last day or so, been a very busy weekend. Things are loooking good in terms of the moisture around. However i think most action is going to be around the far west, and north eastern parts of the state. Could see some modest local falls during the evening, but i think the great sunny weather will be the biggest highlight for metro areas today.

Don't know what it's like there, but here in Hoppers Crossing, it's overcast, cool and it wants to drizzle.

Actually just like yesterday!

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Rhino on Mon Nov 02, 2009 7:40 am

That's one depressing looking Stormcast forecast from GFS for most of Vic, bar the far west and far east. Nasty looking figures around Naracoorte for this arvo. Shocked Still hoping for a couple of mm's.

Rhino. Smile Smile

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Nov 02, 2009 7:47 am

Well we know that Stormcast means jack all after Friday so not worried there. Had LIs of +1 and no CAPE at 11pm and by then I had golf ball hail and rainfall rates of 150mmhr!

Loving the destabalisation of the middle layers. Should see showers develop over the coming few hours over C areas.

Bit like Friday out there.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Proteous on Mon Nov 02, 2009 7:53 am

Well the troughy conditions having pretty much ended apart from the far NE, the upcoming change will have little or no effect in terms of rainfall for this area. Had absolutely nothing for the dying system here though I read with interest the reports of others in most parts of the state of the good results in their respective areas.
The change tommorow will certainly bring the cool windy conditions we experienced for most of last month, hopefully it wont last too long.
Big bbq tomorrow and my selection for the cup is Roman Emperor

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Melbourne Skywalker on Mon Nov 02, 2009 7:54 am

Just came back from a nice walk with the dog. It actually feels alot warmer than the current temperature reading of 17.2 (Caroline Springs). There is definately quite a bit of humidity out there so not ruling any development out later.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Nov 02, 2009 7:55 am

Looking at the satellite image, the area of clear air where storms will fire should start to come over the state from 3pm. And the trajectory should be sharp SE ahead of the wind change by midnight. I think we are still in with an excellent shot.

Time will tell though.. This weather is fun!!

MLAPS has the change coming in between 6-10pm tonight with 10-25mm of rain locally. Looks to move fairly fast however. It also has the middle layer activity that is moving in right now. 2-5mm with it according to MLAPS but will find that out soon.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Greg Sorenson on Mon Nov 02, 2009 7:59 am

Great works guys. I always take heed of all you comments and thoughts. I agree, it has been fun Karl, what a drought of activity we've been through. I like the set up for today. I think there will be sufficient heating, enough moisture about to ensure a dynamic atmosphere, and hopefully good timing for another light show. Can't wait.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Sniper on Mon Nov 02, 2009 8:25 am

Happy birthday for yesterday Greg!!

Severe Weather Warning
for damaging winds
for people in the Central, Western, North Central, Alpine Areas, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts.
Issued at 11:01 am EDT on Monday 2 November 2009.

Weather Situation
A low pressure system will develop south of Adelaide today with an associated trough entering western areas late afternoon and reaching central areas of the State by midnight.

Damaging winds averaging 60 km/h with peak gusts around 100 km/h are expected to develop early Tuesday morning for the Alpine Areas forecast district and parts of the Western, North Central, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts. In the southern districts, these winds should mainly affect elevated areas.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:

People should not park or shelter under trees.
Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.
The next warning will be issued by 5:00 pm EDT Monday.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300-659-217*.

The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

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