Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Nov 02, 2009 8:47 am

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria

Fire Weather Briefing for Victoria
Issued at 11:34 am EDT on Monday 2 November 2009.

Estimates Today:
Given the complexity of the situation today, the estimates give good guidance.
Main issue is the late westerly windchange moving through the state later this
afternoon and overnight, estimate timing is reasonable. Easterly winds in the
south should turn northerly later this afternoon ahead of the change.

Observational Network Status:
Mt Baw Baw AWS is currently offline.

Weather Situation:
A high pressure system is over the Tasman Sea. A low pressure system will
develop south of Adelaide today with an associated trough entering western
Victoria later this afternoon and evening. The trough will clear Victoria early
Tuesday as the low slides away to the southeast. A high pressure system will
form over the Bight later on Tuesday then will move only slowly eastwards
during Wednesday, passing to the south of Victoria late Thursday.

24 Hour Rainfall to 9am:
Isloated totals mainly below 1mm

Weather Today:
Isolated showers. Isolated thunderstorms developing in the southwest and
eastern ranges this morning before extending to most districts during the
afternoon and evening. Warm to hot with moderate to fresh northeast to
northwest winds, strengthening in the west ahead of a cooler gusty southwest
change extending from the west, reaching central areas at night.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Nov 02, 2009 9:08 am

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office
THUNDERSTORM FORECAST

Issued at 11:58 am Monday, 2 November 2009,
Valid until midnight on Monday, 2 November 2009.

Very complicated weather pattern today with warm to hot and moisture air coming down across Victoria from the north, although a drier but hotter air mass likely to effect the northwest ahead of the trough. The trough should reach the western border early afternoon and move eastwards to reach central areas this evening, reaching the Melbourne area around midnight. Widespread storms are likely over the east ranges and sever thunderstorms are a risk due to high buoyancy. In the west and particular the southwest, instability is not as high but severe thunderstorms are a chance as winds increase ahead of the trough and storms spread out along the trough into an organised line. This is likely late afternoon and into the evening. Most likely time for thunderstorms in Melbourne will be between 9pm to 1am although mid level storms are a risk over Melbourne and most of the State for much of the afternoon.

[img][/img]
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Greg Sorenson on Mon Nov 02, 2009 9:12 am

Thanks Wes for your bday wishes. That is a great report Karl, batteries locked and loaded.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Nov 02, 2009 9:17 am

Here is the sky over the region in the last hour or so....

Looking S with the first line of precip that dropped 50c sized raindrops.

[img][/img]

Looking west twenty minutes ago suggests heating is not a problem and plenty of convection to work with. Apologies for the power lines but couldn't bothered walking down the street or climbing!!

[img][/img]
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  AmaroK on Mon Nov 02, 2009 9:26 am

Cloud cover has barely changed here in the last 2 hours. Starting to warm up very slowly now a little bit of sun is comming through, but not a huge amount. Currently 22.4 in bayswater. Not sure how much the clear air will help heating in this region.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Johnno on Mon Nov 02, 2009 9:26 am

Karl Lijnders wrote:Here is the sky over the region in the last hour or so....

Looking S with the first line of precip that dropped 50c sized raindrops.

[img][/img]

Looking west twenty minutes ago suggests heating is not a problem and plenty of convection to work with. Apologies for the power lines but couldn't bothered walking down the street or climbing!!

[img][/img]

Hi Karl, sent you few sms's since 9am this morning not sure if you got them or not but just letting you know.


Looking very interesting.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Nov 02, 2009 9:27 am

Got a report from Anthony Violi of moderate convection to the NW over the central ranges. Could anyone in the region specify what is happening out there? Storms will come from that location this afternoon.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  rikjpool on Mon Nov 02, 2009 9:38 am

I cant see anything here Karl, but there is still alot of high cloud here atm. Cant see too much through that anyway.

Wish I could chase this afternoon, but have to pick the sisters up from school at 3:30 and watch them till 5pm. So dont think i'll be going anywhere....
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Nov 02, 2009 9:39 am

Take them with you Razz

Don't worry mate, the best will after 6pm anyway but some middle level storms could develop over the coming 3hrs.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Johnno on Mon Nov 02, 2009 9:41 am

Greg Sorenson wrote:Thanks Wes for your bday wishes. That is a great report Karl, batteries locked and loaded.

Hey Greg happy belated birthday mate

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Greg Sorenson on Mon Nov 02, 2009 9:53 am

Thanks John. Got a message from Brayden. He's up in Castlemaine without internet but will give updates if anything is developing in the avo. Along with Rikki, the nw central ranges are covered;) Also have a photo buddy down along the great ocean road until tomorrow morning, so should get updates from him as well.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Johnno on Mon Nov 02, 2009 9:56 am

Can only see mid level convection to my NW (towards Macedon) at the moment Karl but plenty about

Interesting that UKMet has got the trough wind change coming through as a SSW change so to me that could mean it won't be going as fast as suggested as there is a steep kink in the trough and better storm development. Its got the Northerlies covergeging with the SSW wind change West of Geelong at around 10pm... Then few hours later winds go back to the West again. Latest GFS has some good local rainfall near Geelong now of 25mm wouldnt suprise me to see these local falls in parts of Melbourne to tonight I'm definetly not discounting it.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Nov 02, 2009 10:11 am

The cloud signatures are quite impressive. Particularly in the middle levels...
Looking southeast from here...

[img][/img]
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Nov 02, 2009 10:17 am

DAY 2 THUNDERSTORM FORECAST

Issued at 12:24 pm Monday, 2 November 2009,
Valid from midnight tonight until midnight on Tuesday, 3 November 2009.

Trough will continue through the eastern half of the State overnight and during Tuesday morning, clearing the State by mid day. Thunderstorms will remain a risk overnight and Tuesday morning on and ahead of the trough with storms clearing the far east ranges by early afternoon. Thunderstorms should clear the Melbourne area by 1-2am and contract to the far east by 6am.

[img][/img]
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  firestorm on Mon Nov 02, 2009 10:22 am

Greg Sorenson wrote:Thanks John. Got a message from Brayden. He's up in Castlemaine without internet but will give updates if anything is developing in the avo. Along with Rikki, the nw central ranges are covered;) Also have a photo buddy down along the great ocean road until tomorrow morning, so should get updates from him as well.
i have a wicked cough so i have the day off so i will be watching the sky all arvo i will keep updats comming from here if there anything happening

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  AmaroK on Mon Nov 02, 2009 10:37 am

Well i have to say, with the temperatures really struggling here, and the figures on storm cast, i am fairly unconvinced of anything happening in the metro and easter suburbs of melbourne. Looks as tho there may be some interest for the north central and n/e central areas but only after midnight.

The west may get some short lived action up until about 7 tonight but hey, i am just guessing in all honesty.

Karl your enthusiasm and optimism is an shining light as always. but im just not feeling it today.

Crying or Very sad
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Nov 02, 2009 10:43 am

Again and again it has been repeated that Stormcast is really a light guide...Friday night just gone it had nothing for us at the time the line of severe storms moved through... so if your basing no action on that then it is a weak and flawed outcome.

My enthusiasm is on what the sky is naturally indicating, and that is dynamic instability, high precipitable water values, I mean 24/17 here currently. I don't know what else to say - I cannot convince you but I am certainly feeling and expecting a good night.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  AmaroK on Mon Nov 02, 2009 10:47 am

Oh its not just storm cast, i know how off it can be. Things just dont seem quite as how i'd like them to be for a good night in my area Razz granted i am stuck in my office so cant observe with my eyes as much as id like, so im restricted to getting info from the AWS, and things like that.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Mon Nov 02, 2009 10:49 am

Karl Lijnders wrote:Again and again it has been repeated that Stormcast is really a light guide...Friday night just gone it had nothing for us at the time the line of severe storms moved through... so if your basing no action on that then it is a weak and flawed outcome.

My enthusiasm is on what the sky is naturally indicating, and that is dynamic instability, high precipitable water values, I mean 24/17 here currently. I don't know what else to say - I cannot convince you but I am certainly feeling and expecting a good night.

I agree Karl. After Friday and Saturday as well, it is safe to say there is a lot of moisture around this season...possible max around 10-11pm pre-change at 29 degrees possible even. If this happens there will be fireworks galore.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Mon Nov 02, 2009 10:50 am

Expect to see some action in the next few hours, will be all mid level and fairly short lived, if you look at the AccAs they are showing great instability..sounding is good, plenty to work with.

But the action starts tonight.. i really like the orientation of the rain in SA atm, brings melbourne into play with storms rolling off the ranges tonight ahead of the change, and then a finale on the change itself. Again some areas will miss out totally but thats the nature with these situations..
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Mon Nov 02, 2009 10:50 am

AmaroK wrote:Oh its not just storm cast, i know how off it can be. Things just dont seem quite as how i'd like them to be for a good night in my area Razz granted i am stuck in my office so cant observe with my eyes as much as id like, so im restricted to getting info from the AWS, and things like that.

Things will change dramatically weather-wise late this afternoon, early evening, when those hot northlies come in, hopefully the temp pumps up with humdiity remaining high.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  AUS_Twisted on Mon Nov 02, 2009 10:52 am

Just cleaned my 30D sensor and ready to go again, hopefully theres a bit of action later on Smile
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  floydlove on Mon Nov 02, 2009 11:09 am

It really is going to be a late maximum. I was expecting to wake up to a little bit of warmth. Well, I'm with Karl and Anthony. I think tonight should be at least half-decent if anything. You really can't write off anything so early. Seeing as there's a lot of support and even the BoM thunderstorm forecast looks good. Trough will be late so plenty of chance for action.

Saturday night took a long time to get going but you always thought something would develop and it did. Should be fun. Smile

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Nov 02, 2009 11:13 am

Lets just say I feel more confident about today than I did about Saturday. I think it is safe to say we are in for some action, but like AV says, we could see some areas getting dumped and slaughtered and others getting not much.

It is safe to say that you won't see anything like below!!! This was taken earlier this year in QLD off Noosa, similar airmass to that day but much stronger trigger. We are about a month away from seeing supportive troughs like this one.

[img][/img]
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  mick on Mon Nov 02, 2009 11:14 am

Sky clearing down here, a stiff s/w keeping the humidity down, but 1 k from the coast its a bit steamy. One side of the bay has s/w and the other s/e winds. The west of the state has easterlies and the east has westerlies, its all over the joint.

ATM id say 10% chance for me but might be a diff ball game around 7-8pm.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

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