Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  floydlove on Mon Nov 02, 2009 11:09 am

It really is going to be a late maximum. I was expecting to wake up to a little bit of warmth. Well, I'm with Karl and Anthony. I think tonight should be at least half-decent if anything. You really can't write off anything so early. Seeing as there's a lot of support and even the BoM thunderstorm forecast looks good. Trough will be late so plenty of chance for action.

Saturday night took a long time to get going but you always thought something would develop and it did. Should be fun. Smile

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Nov 02, 2009 11:13 am

Lets just say I feel more confident about today than I did about Saturday. I think it is safe to say we are in for some action, but like AV says, we could see some areas getting dumped and slaughtered and others getting not much.

It is safe to say that you won't see anything like below!!! This was taken earlier this year in QLD off Noosa, similar airmass to that day but much stronger trigger. We are about a month away from seeing supportive troughs like this one.

[img][/img]
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  mick on Mon Nov 02, 2009 11:14 am

Sky clearing down here, a stiff s/w keeping the humidity down, but 1 k from the coast its a bit steamy. One side of the bay has s/w and the other s/e winds. The west of the state has easterlies and the east has westerlies, its all over the joint.

ATM id say 10% chance for me but might be a diff ball game around 7-8pm.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  James on Mon Nov 02, 2009 11:25 am

thats cruel posting that photo Karl !! - i saw it and immediately thought "hey i havent seen anything like that out there today!"

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Nov 02, 2009 11:26 am

Latest visual sat pic is showing widespread low scale convection over the north and moderate convection over the Grampians. Storms and showers are beginning to develop east and south east of Adelaide where more vibrant convection is building. This should be the main thrust and focal point of thunderstorms in the coming 2-3hrs over western VIC.

LOL - last time I looked outside, it wasn't as pretty...I MISS QLD!! Sad


Last edited by Karl Lijnders on Mon Nov 02, 2009 11:27 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  floydlove on Mon Nov 02, 2009 11:26 am

Well, I am too Karl. I'm just saying Saturday had a lot less chance but still delivered something.

Great shot btw, like the contrast with the water. Looks mean. Wink

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Nov 02, 2009 11:32 am

I might pull a few reports up from my trip earlier this year...I was going to post them on WZ but then, well....here we are..haha!

This storm was connected to a classic SE QLD troughline and produced some large hail and damaging winds over Maroochydore to Caloundra. Then it moved offshore and had a lovely bit of arcus on it with massive CG lightning for hours. I sat on the cliff face there, no people in sight and had it all to myself for 4hrs, thunder boomed non stop. It makes me drool thinking about it!!!

Now connecting it back to today.... we can have days like that when things go right. I dare say the structure of the storms Friday night would have been of a similar size and vein. Just we couldn't see it Sad
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  AUSSKY on Mon Nov 02, 2009 11:46 am

BoM thunderstorm forecast has changed substantially...

Issued at 11:58 am Monday, 2 November 2009,
Valid until midnight on Monday, 2 November 2009.

Very complicated weather pattern today with warm to hot and moisture air coming down across Victoria from the north, although a drier but hotter air mass likely to effect the northwest ahead of the trough. The trough should reach the western border early afternoon and move eastwards to reach central areas this evening, reaching the Melbourne area around midnight. Widespread storms are likely over the east ranges and sever thunderstorms are a risk due to high buoyancy. In the west and particular the southwest, instability is not as high but severe thunderstorms are a chance as winds increase ahead of the trough and storms spread out along the trough into an organised line. This is likely late afternoon and into the evening. Most likely time for thunderstorms in Melbourne will be between 9pm to 1am although mid level storms are a risk over Melbourne and most of the State for much of the afternoon.


Messy castellanus now starting to the NW: 23.6T / 13.7DP under cirrus...
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Mon Nov 02, 2009 11:56 am

Good clearance happening now and plenty of convection beginning to take place out west and i expect more this arvo, right into the night....btw this heat and humidity is bullshit. I hope we get smacked and makes it all worth it because its oppressive atm, 26/16, and climbing steadily now with a couple of hours of sun, and not a breath of wind.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Sniper on Mon Nov 02, 2009 11:59 am

Mildura has reached 40.3 in the last hour!!

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  hillybilly on Mon Nov 02, 2009 12:15 pm

41.0C at Hopetoun which is (nearly) an early season Vic record (Turns out that the benchmark in this department is 2/11/1988 - 42.1 at Walpeup, 42.0 at Mildura and 41.2 at Ouyen - thanks Blair Smile ). Also possible early season records back through SA. Amazing contrast to Cape Otway and Wilson Prom (15 and 16C ATM).

BTW some big drops behind the front eg Edithburgh which was 36C at 11:30am and is now down to 18C.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Nov 02, 2009 12:24 pm

Yeah, it's the thermal gradient that hopefully will allow this storm band to develop tonight. Nice mild to warm day here today, still humid but not as oppressive as the last few days. Sky looked promising around 1pm today as middle level convection filled most of the sky and lowered, almost looked like a weak thunderstorm was going to form but it all cleared away rapidly soon after and sunny ever since. 23.4C here currently.

Continuing with some ACCAS around and general Ac. Very little general instability around though. Can't see any development at all until the front appraoches. Looks like the hottest air will come in after peak heating time so we have dodged another bullet today. We don't want too many extreme heat days when it's only just November, doesn't bode well for summer at all.

I'm pretty much in agreement now that there should be a decent line of storms with the front but most places won't be jumping up and down with excitement IMO. Isolated places will be no doubt and IMO those places will almost certainly be in the SE and E suburbs of Melbourne, South Gippsland and along the coast. Other areas could be in for another massive flop if you get your hopes up too much. Expecting a similar outcome to Saturday night here, a bit of a light show, a few cracks of Cc lightning/thunder and 1-5mm of rain


Last edited by droughtbreaker on Mon Nov 02, 2009 12:26 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Mon Nov 02, 2009 12:25 pm

Good indication of the air to come, Mt Gambier 31/16 and Naracoorte 35/13....ample moisture and heating should spark off some big thunderstorms in the near future...
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Twister on Mon Nov 02, 2009 12:34 pm

Amazing the difference the hills are causing.
South of Hills it about 20-25c light S wind and Humid
North of the hills its 37-41c Gusty NNW winds and Very Dry affraid

Crazy Difference and typical of spring and summer Huge Temp gradient

Been above 38c last 3 days in a row up in Nw Vic they are dieing up there i am sure big shock family rang other day and said its just boiling hot and they are already over it lol.

We keep missing out on these High temps so far but our time will come.

Big Cu field Exploding in Nw Vic and moving Se into more humid air I am not expecting anything massive tonight just a repeat of Saturday with stronger winds and maybe the odd mirco burst or to

Expect nothing till after 9pm

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Proteous on Mon Nov 02, 2009 12:39 pm

Issued at 3:33 pm Monday, 2 November 2009.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds and large hailstones
in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected
include Corryong, Bright, Dargo, Falls Creek, Mt Hotham and Omeo.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Nov 02, 2009 12:40 pm

Latest Visual Satellite is amazing...

[img][/img]

Not looking average to me. But I guess it will be interesting to see how it develops. This is an above average amount of convection for a situation like this so I would suggest widespread showers and storms to start firing in the next 90 minutes.

Also watch the convection near Ballarat and over the western ranges.

-------

http://planetweather.forumotion.net/viewtopic.forum?t=146
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Nov 02, 2009 7:26 pm

The Apollo Bay cam is showing lots of close strikes. Flang city down there.

Getting a little nervous here...

I think we may have lost 6-7 pages of posts...hmmmm let me see whats going on here...keep chatting Smile
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

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