Stats and questions

I just thought this might be an interesting topic, people might have questions about stats or you might find some stats that you want to share.

I was just thinking about this July and how mild it has been and thought that if 13.4c is July's average then these are how many days were equal to or below average over the past 10 Julys:

July 1999: 5 days
July 2000: 7 days
July 2001: 7 days
July 2002: 5 days
July 2003: 5 days
July 2004: 12 days
July 2005: 7 days
July 2006: 7 days
July 2007: 12 days
July 2008: 8 days
July 2009: 3 days (so far)

forget this 2nd post! lol

went to look at the heatwave of August 1995, where we had a week of temps in Melbourne from 19 to 24 and then a further 4 days afterwards the following week of similar temps. Also the record temps of August 1982 where we had 25.7 and 26.5. Amazing temps for August, some people are saying in the other forum that the heat in the NW may make it down here in August. Wonder if we will get similar temps this August

Not so long ago Melbourne's July average was 13.3C (has been going up with all the warm winters). That average would have left us with one below average day

well we missed out on the warmest july bu 0.5c as 1975 was 15.7c and this year 15.2c

Looks like Darwin is well and truly inline to record its Hottest October ever infact the hottest month ever up there! Which is quite mindblowing! I try and think these things are just long term patterns but these droughts and heat records keep falling across Australia very regularly these days which makes me think its has a strong possibilty to do with climate change and global warming as DJ suggests.

ahhh I forgot I started this! lol

With Darwins record....I wonder in the past 10 years, how many all time lows have been recorded....for example has anywhere in Australia recorded their coldest.(for eg July) ever? We seem to get very close or breaking those heat records more than the cold ones.

Johnno wrote:Looks like Darwin is well and truly inline to record its Hottest October ever infact the hottest month ever up there! Which is quite mindblowing! I try and think these things are just long term patterns but these droughts and heat records keep falling across Australia very regularly these days which makes me think its has a strong possibilty to do with climate change and global warming as DJ suggests.

How much above the record are they? Normally their temps are pretty constant and will not deviate much. It is very alarming that it is hotter than normal up there as well as we edge closer to summer...may mean a very active monsoonal season up there similar to last year and more heat getting driven down here?

It should be a weaker monsoon season thanks to El Nino. Oceans are likely to be cooler than average to the north and east of Aus for the next several months.

As mentioned by ILS, Darwin's temperatures don't show a large amount of variation from day to day or 'season to season' for that matter (of course in the deep tropics there are no real seasons), so even a degree or two above average is significant and records will be broken with relatively little rise in temperature. This rise in temperature (of a few degrees) is directly a result of global warming.

Hi guys, with the forecast heat predicted, whether it arrives or not....does anyone know off hand, the longest stretch of 30c+ days in November?

if the BOM's forecasts are correct, we will have 4 in a row. If the 27c day turns out to be warmer, we could have 7!

Another question

Does anyone know what makes Tasman high become a blocking high? With this extended hot spell mainly due to the high remaining stationary over the Tasman Sea, what has caused the high to just stay there?

Why can't the trough over WA or cold front near WA push it away?

Hi Norfolk,

From my understanding a high can be blocked by a Low Pressure System on the east coast (Coffs Harbour this time). When it starts to get more tropical up there, this thing tends to happen a lot more.

I think there will be a lot of storms/heavy rain up on the east coast over the next week whilst we experience this hot dry weather.

Hottest Maximum November temp in the Eucla today of 44.3c

Johnno wrote:Hottest Maximum November temp in the Eucla today of 44.3c

wow that's hot.....I am sure lots of records have been broken this past week and beyond. One off the top of my head was melbourne's stretch of 32+ temps for November.

Have Adelaide broken their run of 35+ temps for November?

Melbourne is at 27.7 so far this year (not including today and tomorrow).

Including today...we have, 2 days above 35, 6 days 30-35, 5 days 25-30, 4 days 20-25, 2 days less than 20

Record November is 25.5 in 1862

that year we had.... 2 days above 35, 5 days 30-35, 8 days 25-30, 10 days 20-25, 5 days less than 20

so, for this month to be an almost equivalent to nov 1862, we need for the rest of the month, 3 days below 20, 6 days from 20-25 and 3 days 25-30. Now that's 12 days when we only have 11 days left, so we still could possibly be breaking this months record.

will be keeping an eye on this record!

1862 record might not be the one to break. Back in those days, (the early days of weather recording in the state) they didn't use Stevenson screens, they used another type of screen that has been proven to raise recorded temperatures by around 2C compared to the standard Stevenson screen. That's why you find a disproportionate number of record high temps were recorded back in the mid to late 1800s.

I'm not sure which month was the hottest using standard equipment but it may be November 1982.

I can only go with what the BOm says as official!

but if we must, let's look at Nov 1982,

Nov 1982 Ave, 25.4 above 35....4 days, 30-35....5 days, 25-30.....5 days, 20-25.....8 days, under 20...8 days.

That month was very extreme....from a cold day of 15.9c on the 1st to 38.1c twice, the 6th and the 24th.

A week to go and we are at 27.7C for the month. If the next 7 days pan out exactly as forecast....these will be the averages

Day Forecast Average
Nov 24 25c 27.6c
Nov 25 27c 27.6c
Nov 26 28c 27.6c
Nov 27 26c 27.6c
Nov 28 23c 27.4c
Nov 29 23c 27.2c
Nov 30 20c 27.0c


So if we have an average of 27.0c for November.....what an extraordinary month!!!!

I can see temps in Melbourne of only in the low 20's to high teens Saturday to Tuesday next week Tony so we may not get 27c as the average

Today's 26.6 still gives an average of 27.7.

Again looking at the forecasts.......

Date, Forecasts, ave
Nov 25 27c 27.7c
Nov 26 29c 27.7c
Nov 27 26c 27.6c
Nov 28 22c 27.4c
Nov 29 19c 27.2c
Nov 30 20c 26.9c

John....I am just going to use the forecasts, will update this day by day until the end of the month as what we have seen this month has been just unbelieveable!

Expect the temps not to grade under 19C in southerly winds on Sunday. That is too low and a variance of 2C should be applied with a warmer moist bay in any onshore flow.

This could change if drier air penetrates in to the low levels.

Today's 25.2c makes it.......27.6c for the month.

For the rest of the month

Day forecast average
Nov 26 29c 27.6c
Nov 27 26c 27.6c
Nov 28 21c 27.3c
Nov 29 19c 27.1c
Nov 30 20c 26.8c

as the days get closer to the end of the month, the end of month average, slowly slowly decreases!

Today's 30.0c makes it.......27.7c for the month.

For the rest of the month

Day forecast average
Nov 27 27c 27.7c
Nov 28 21c 27.4c
Nov 29 19c 27.1c
Nov 30 20c 26.9c

Today's 30 has made the possible average back up by 0.1c.

Today's 28.8c makes it.......27.7c for the month.

For the rest of the month

Day forecast average
Nov 28 23c 27.6c
Nov 29 19c 27.3c
Nov 30 20c 27.0c

back up to 27.0c for the month

Heres one which may get a few people off guard.



11th-wettest year on record, as Tassie again gets a soaking

Sunday November 29, 2009 - 13:08 EDT
Persistent rains have prompted the Weather Bureau to declare 2009 the 11th-wettest year on record in Tasmania.

Persistent rain has fallen across the state's south and east throughout the night.

Mount Wellington recorded 101mm to 9:00am.

On the state's east coast, 83mm has fallen on Swansea and Bicheno, causing some minor flooding, but the Bureau says intense rain in the area has now eased, and it has cancelled its flash flooding warning for that region.

The wet and windy conditions have played havoc with sporting and community events around the state.

Hobart's thoroughbred horse race meeting has been postponed, and the Tasmanian Cricket Association has cancelled all youth league matches.

A rowing regatta on the Tamar River in Launceston has also been cancelled due to high winds.

The Dragons Abreast novice paddling races in Hobart have been postponed for two weeks, and Fishcare's "Take a Kid Fishing Day" has been cancelled.

The start of the one-day cricket match between Tasmania and South Australia at Bellerive Oval has been delayed.

The ground is being lashed by strong winds and rain.

There is little sign of the weather clearing but the match will go ahead if 15 overs a side can be bowled this afternoon.

- ABC

ABC 2009