Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

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Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Mon Nov 02, 2009 12:40 pm

27.3 here. Pretty hot pushing a lawn mower, which is a regular thing with this weather. every 4 days. Yesterday as noted I didn't get to see the towers or the hill till ~ 4pm, great day for working outside. Not sure if anyone else in the area has noticed the amount of flocks of birds around the last few days, some are large birds and large flocks gliding around others were smaller noisy birds chirping and darting in spiral rotations.
Great Videos. after clicking and watching one I come across the Boronia Boys. PMSL.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  AmaroK on Mon Nov 02, 2009 12:41 pm

Clearer skies over me now, temps slowly creeping up, got 25/16 at the moment with a s-se breaze at about 10kmh. Quite pleasant outside although a little stuffy. Be interesting to see just how hot it gets before sun set.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  mick on Mon Nov 02, 2009 12:57 pm

Mackeral sky here.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  Sniper on Mon Nov 02, 2009 12:58 pm

Impressive looking SatVis Karl.

Sharing the opinion that something fairly beefy will be coming thru after 9pm for central/metro areas. Get the kids to bed by 7.30pm, shoot up to Mount D, I got this plan sussed out. Very Happy If only it would happen that easy!! Rolling Eyes

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  AmaroK on Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:07 pm

Australis(Shell3155) wrote: Not sure if anyone else in the area has noticed the amount of flocks of birds around the last few days, some are large birds and large flocks gliding around others were smaller noisy birds chirping and darting in spiral rotations. .

Now that you mention it i have noticed it a few times of an afternoon leaving work between Bayswater and Rowville.

Temps still getting up although sun appears to have gone behind a bank of clouds again .currently 27.5/18 here. Quite a jump over the last hour. Still on the rise too, definitely getting uncomfortable out there tho.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:09 pm

Yes I have seen those flocks of birds using the air currents to gain elevation. They are around today. Something that I haven't seen in a decade to be quite honest with you. The weather is back!!!

Well some echoes starting to show up along that line of distinct convection. Might come in earlier than some think.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  Anthony Violi on Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:09 pm

Latest visual showing sky exploding to the NW, as it moves South will encounter more humid air and expand rapidly..the change going through SA providing lots of lift too so a few good hours coming up..still 27/17 here.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  Sniper on Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:11 pm

Scattered cells developing near the northern border (Echuca/Yarrawonga) These will show up on the Melb 256km radar around Donald etc by 4.30/5pm.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:12 pm

The 2:30pm update:

[img][/img]

And here is that sat pic. Showing expectional increase over the last hour which is good and SE advancement.

[img][/img]


Last edited by Karl Lijnders on Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:17 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  James on Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:13 pm

well fingers crossed for something exciting out here, the last few storms have been rather mild by the time they got here

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  AmaroK on Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:13 pm

Karl, according to the time stamp...they are the same pic Razz
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  Sniper on Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:15 pm

That is a very well defined line Karl.
Quite chunky on the "front line"
Up to 27 in town where I sit.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  James on Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:18 pm

oh, are the storms and front coming from up donalds way down past melbourne? - i am thinking of it going through mt-gambier like usual

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:23 pm

Pre-frontal storms will move SE from the area of convection noted on the satellite. There will be another line come with the wind change closer to midnight or there-after. These bands could combine to a solid mass of showers and storms but wait and see on that.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:26 pm

Well, I have to agree the satellite image is very impressive. Changing my tune now (which will mozz it for sure Laughing ) I agree that we will see convection explode in around 2 hrs time increasing ahead of the front (which is now showing the beginnings of the squall line approaching the SW) It has the potential to really intensify over the west central ranges and then slam into Melbourne ahead of the front. As the front approaches with the squall line I wouldn't be surprised if the convection ahead of the system causes the line to blow right out in size and we could get a large thundery rain band.

Would be great if this came off. Still not 100% convinced on this but I can now see where it's all coming from.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  Greg Sorenson on Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:28 pm

My target area, although not totally locked in would be down towards half moon bay. Or even Sorrento. Some good jetty's and a great viewpoint over looking west. There are plenty of sheltered bbq areas down that way....

Have reports from Adelaide co-workers reporting marked drop in temps. Very encouraging.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  Anthony Violi on Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:28 pm

I know Andrew its very hard because in the back of your mind you still remember all the misses we have have had...but within 2 hours we should start to see bands of showers and storms move down into our vicinity..
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  Johnno on Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:30 pm

Am I right by saying latest Mlaps for tonight has 10 to 20mm in and around Melbourne and the Bay area? Can't close in on it properly can someone verify this?

Looks like latest GFS has 10mm+ for us too which makes bit more sense

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  firestorm on Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:42 pm

the north sky is showing quiet rapid convection atm but temps are still cool 18 with the E/NE breeze once that wind goes to the north temps will climb rapidly. Looking forward to some lightning after missing the friday/sat action down here Suspect

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  rikjpool on Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:47 pm

So going by tha sat pic, i'll brew them storms all up for ya'll, then send 'em all down 'ey. Cuz thats what us here country folk do best... Rolling Eyes Razz
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  Power Storm on Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:51 pm

Well in the midst of our most recent thunderstorm, I edited my recordings of it but our internet dropped out whilst it was uploading to youtube, and now we have slow internet, and our service provider says we have gone over the 10 GB so its slow from now till the 10th. So my videos are on hold until around then!

Back to day. Woke up to some fairly modest showers and cloudy skies. Showers cleared here about 12pm and then the cloud did around 1-2PM, and temps shot up from there. They are around 27 here now with a DP at 18. Very good and moist, winds are coming in quite strong now as well.

Looking at the latest SAT it does seem to be firing up as expected. Looks like I am going to see at least two thunderstorms if things play out right - one from the convective focus (NW stuff moving SE) and along the front went it reaches here. Going to get real interesting thats for sure. Much of Vic will be affected by this first convective line by the looks bar the far NW. Expect severe thunderstorm warnings for that when it all gets going. Radar just starting to indicate the development now, and the storm in the Far East is looking impressive as well.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  Hamlan on Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:58 pm

Hi, following on from my pics of Friday night, here are some shots of my short chase on Saturday taken from Craigieburn and then after dark near Werribee:





















Hopefully more to come tonight!

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  Anthony Violi on Mon Nov 02, 2009 2:05 pm

A ridiculous 26/19 here, steamy as all hell. Going to be on like donkey kong tonight hopefully, good storms starting to brew and a second serve later on..
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  AmaroK on Mon Nov 02, 2009 2:11 pm

DP's dropping now. Sitting on about 28.7/15.3, temps are still on the rise. Very stuffy still. but just enough sunshine to keep the heating going.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  Greg Sorenson on Mon Nov 02, 2009 2:15 pm

great shots ham, was under the first great looking anvil. As it passed the coast it had an amazing rainfoot and rollcloud, possibly a micro burst. The roll cloud even had it's own lenticular clouds!
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