Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Nov 02, 2009 4:44 pm

Already seeing the bulk of the storms with the frontal passage slipping southwards. This is typical. The shower band should affect most areas in western and central districts and away from the far north and NW but these huge storms we are talking about will most likely be closer to the coast and eastern suburbs. Doubt it will be as spectacular inland.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  Power Storm on Mon Nov 02, 2009 4:47 pm

Well that was an absolute ripper of a thunderstorm. If produced some real nice CG lightning thats for sure, photogenic stuff. 1 flang out of that. Scared the bajipas out of me! A little bit of moderate rain as well.

Real quiet and still humid here now. Looks like I will be in for storm number 2 shortly with a new cell around Hamilton making its way towards my area. Wink

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  Anthony Violi on Mon Nov 02, 2009 4:50 pm

I can tell you it hasnt been a breath of wind all day, i think we will have sea fog develop out here soon when it becomes 25/25...absolutely unbelievable all day..set to explode later one would think. In fact i think within an hour we should start to see significant developments ahead of the main band move into Melbourne...

Also the timing now will be very late, after 1am maybe..

I think your in for a rude shock Andrew..
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  typhoon29 on Mon Nov 02, 2009 4:53 pm

still very warm here 25degs. Starting to cloud over. Alot of high cloud some Cu and looks to be some small Cbs developing to the W/NW
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Nov 02, 2009 4:54 pm

Here is the latest on the wind change and it is slowing down a bit as the low is not budging to the SE yet. Watch the secondary cloud feature developing over C SA with lightning as it is surging SSE and may be pulled in.

US has OK falls for the west and central areas tonight.

[img][/img]
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  I_Love_Storms on Mon Nov 02, 2009 4:57 pm

Good, bad or much of a muchness for us Karl?

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  Power Storm on Mon Nov 02, 2009 4:58 pm

I cannot get that wind change chart to open Karl, you having trouble?

Andrew, I think you will get something tonight too mate Wink Looks through E SA atm, could be a storm line develop out of that. Also mate some good thunderstorms are likely in the W wind as well, not just the NW or NE.


Last edited by Power Storm on Mon Nov 02, 2009 5:01 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Nov 02, 2009 4:58 pm

Excellent for us as it buys us more time and more moisture advection and that means storms won't fly through at 100kmh!! More like 40-50kmh movement.

That will mean that rainfall will have a chance to clock up so that falls in line with MLAPS and US and to a lesser degree GASP and LAPS which smears rainfall across the chance region (DJ spoke of this earlier)

Comes up fine on the forum mate.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  Anthony Violi on Mon Nov 02, 2009 5:00 pm

It wont open cos it wont open on the Bom site...maybe they just took it down Karl?
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Nov 02, 2009 5:02 pm

I can see it currently on my page...

Has the wind change through Hamilton at 2100hrs, through Jakes at 2400hrs and through the eastern suburbs around 0300hrs tomorrow morning. That means that things will slow down as this low changes direction and forces everything to the NW to surge SE even more.

Also says that winds will generally be 50kmh from the north and any thunderstorms that develop will cause winds to be 30% higher which is a fancy way of saying 90kmh or damaging winds.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  Power Storm on Mon Nov 02, 2009 5:07 pm

Ahh thanks mate Wink I cannot get it up on the BoM CFA site either... But thanks for letting us know. So midnight for here, give or take an hour. Is slowing down then? That cell moving closer towards me near Hamilton now is looking juicy, could be a few more storm chances besides that for me too. Just lovely Surprised

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  DarkEye on Mon Nov 02, 2009 5:09 pm

What about my end, when will the change sweep through here.
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  Power Storm on Mon Nov 02, 2009 5:11 pm

DarkEye wrote:What about my end, when will the change sweep through here.

It would be nearly there I'd imagine. In the next hour... Can this be confirmed by someone else.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  floydlove on Mon Nov 02, 2009 5:14 pm

Guys, here's the chart if you can't see it.


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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  Lily on Mon Nov 02, 2009 5:16 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for DAMAGING WIND, FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES
For people in the
Western and parts of the
Central Forecast Districts.

Issued at 8:05 pm Monday, 2 November 2009.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds, very heavy rainfall,
flash flooding and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several
hours. Locations which may be affected include Hamilton, Warrnambool, Ballarat,
Colac, Ararat and Lake Bolac

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  typhoon29 on Mon Nov 02, 2009 5:18 pm

STW! hmmm would be nice if there was a radar say around Ararat, damn blackholes!
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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  I_Love_Storms on Mon Nov 02, 2009 5:19 pm

Jake how is that cell going near Warrnambool? Looks hectic.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  Power Storm on Mon Nov 02, 2009 5:19 pm

Thanks Floyd, but I can still not see it, on the forum or on the site???? Strange...

Thanks Lily! Wink I was wondering when that was going to be issued. I would have already issued that by now!

Hamilton cell looks so good!!!! Its slowly making its way here, and I am delighted to see a couple of fresh cells also behind that one moving my way also lightning active!

And guys I just went out to check around and there is some small to moderate sized Cu to my north/northeast atm.

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  floydlove on Mon Nov 02, 2009 5:24 pm

Very strange Jake, here' a direct link. http://i35.tinypic.com/4vfi53.jpg Should work now.

Some nice development down your area btw. Smile

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  firestorm on Mon Nov 02, 2009 5:25 pm

things have blowen up rapidly in the last 30min so much cloud forming and getting really organised should get some action soon i think bounce

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  firestorm on Mon Nov 02, 2009 5:28 pm

oh and my area included in the strom warning! oh i have lightning out to sea now Very Happy

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  I_Love_Storms on Mon Nov 02, 2009 5:29 pm

That is a very positive sign that cell near Mortlake. Very well defined core...not bad at all...

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  Power Storm on Mon Nov 02, 2009 5:29 pm

Cheers Floyd! Now its better! Very much appreciated. Wink And yeah, great development down here!

That cell north of Warrnambool looks quite severe.... Better get outside and check it out... Wink

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  hillybilly on Mon Nov 02, 2009 5:32 pm

The storm out near Mortlake must be huge. To show black 220km from the radar is amazing (when we have light blue in Sandy Point 160km from the radar it is usually pouring) so black must be torrential and probably significant hail.

The band is now thickening up nicely suggesting the GFS may be right with the 10-25mm. Will know by morning Razz


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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Nov 02, 2009 5:32 pm

Convection starting up here now as well, surface based. (I think)

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Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

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