Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

EC now has the event finishing on the coming weekend so only 5-6 days to go. Even has some rain for next week - though not a lot (http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Mount_Dandenong/long.html).

In the meantime a couple of the more significant records worth following(thanks to Blair)...

- a consecutive days record in Melbourne. This would require the midweek change to fizzle to the extent that it stays above 30 on Wednesday and Thursday (currently forecast 27/29) - if this indeed happens there is then a very real possibility of setting an all-months record for consecutive days above 30 (currently 8, which would be reached on Saturday). The November record, by the way, is 6.
- a November state record high for Victoria. The current record is 44.5 at Mildura in 1980, and the current Vic RFC forecast has 43/44 for next weekend.

34.9 In my little paddock. Boys get to go home @ 35 deg.. on the big jobs. Im glad I turned the tanks back for watering only when I did.

No seabreeze as yet, Frankston @ 30, Viewbank @ 35.

A new fire (2ha) has popped up, South East of Traralgon, nearer to Gormandale. Orbost fire still "going".

Heat Is in full swing now 33c here and around 35c inland.
Much of the high 30s and 40s still in SA and NSW but will head down this way later in the week wouldn't be surprised to see 38c around here over the weekend maybe even 40c its a Long HOT week.

Yeah and for the NW what is the longest run of 40c days In November looks like Mildura might rack up 5 maybe 6 that is impressive for any time of year.
I think Thursday might just get above 30c but Wednesday might fall just short around 28c.
Still i think Melbourne will record 7 out of 9 days above 30c with 2 or so of them over 35c
Looking forward to the cooler Wednesday and then Monday next week before warms up again, but still no rain in outlook that I see

Afternoon everyone. Cracker of an afternoon here. Just had my lunch break and sat on the lawn out the front of the office. Little breezy here, but its all hot air at the moment, temp just below 34 here. Some small patches of cloud around the horizon, and the rare one over head. Very stifling when you are between all the concrete buildings, but not so bad once you are out tin the open. I have a feeling we will all be feeling this by the end of the week. Not sure just how much "cooler" the middle of the week is going to be, although any change would be a benefit.

Mowed the lawn last night as it was starting to resemble a jungle, and was surprised just how much moisture there still was in the soil underneath even after the few hot ones. I suspect most of that is the result of the storms over the last couple of weeks. Sadly this isn't the case for many areas that are starting to dry off very quickly. Hope we start to get a bit of that moisture over the next week.

It is very warm. 35C here today and some cloud about the place. I suspect another warm evening but cooling once the winds turn SE throughout later.

Hot inland for the remaining part of the week including outer suburbs. So some suburbs may break records.

It's just like rewinding to January again.

What a crazy year of weather 2009 has been.

36 degrees here today, absolute shocker, 2 degrees above what I forecasted and several above wat the BoM forecasted. No seabreeze yet, takes a while to filter inland a bit here if at all.

Still expecting to see the possibility of isolated afternoon thunderstorms through the western district and parts of the wimmera tomorrow, then on the ranges mostly restricted to the west on Wednesday and Thursday. Conditions are not 'the best' for development, however the possibility remains.

Also seeing a fair bit of smoke to my west atm from a grass fire near Allansford. 4 trucks attending and it should be under control quite quickly I'd imagine.

Currently a refreshing? 31.9 here in West Gippsland - maxed out at 34.9 a few hrs ago. Certainly feels like February weather to me although it has been cooler at night; sitting on 16 or so.

Saturday is looking very hot at this stage ahead of a late mild southwest change in the southwest. 850hpa temperatures in the lower 20's across the western half of the state, so temps on the surface could be in the high 30's to low 40's ... Eastern half of the state looks to be mid to high 30's. Change is fairly slow moving so probably not making it to the north and east till sometime Sunday afternoon so temps again fairly hot in front of it, most likely near 40 too! We should also see strengthening northerly winds on Saturday so a bad fire day, and I think a TFB should be put in place! (not saying they will, just my opinion). Its getting dry down here despite the good rains we have been having, several fires have started in the area already too, but luckily crews have been quick enough to get on top of them!

If its dry there Jake imagine how bad it is here! where I've had 1/3 of your rainfall this year.

Saturday is looking terrible to me Mid to Late Spring version of Feb 7th to me (perhaps with bit less wind) meaning if this were to happen in Late Jan early Feb this weather pattern add on another 5-7c and it would be February 7th conditions all over again with temps in the Mid 40's quite easy in Melbourne and possibily higher in other parts and thats no slight over dramatising so those who may doubt that Feb 7th temps may not happen again anytime soon it is very possible it could happen as soon as the next few years. These temps forecasted this time of year are record breaking stuff for parts of Victoria.


I've been saying since May/June to few of my close friends in person and on the phone that I expected a hot and dry November and December this year and a good September and October interms of rainfall (October could of been better in parts but Okay in others) and so far looks to be heading that way. My reasons were with the developing El nino.. History during El ninos during these 2 months and the fact we have had it real good last couple of years with these 2 months so usually things balance out. In saying this I expect January and February to be wet I would certaintly not be suprised if we get our Summer the next 2 months (Nov and Dec) infact thats what I am generally expecting.

Total fire ban PS? - surely we can sneak in another few weeks before one of them!

14.5 to 36.0 C here today, thank God the seabreeze got here mid arvo. Things are drying out bigtime.
It pushed 35C here yest too, so its officially a hot spell and the ambient temp in my bedroom will attest to that no-doubt tonight. (Never buy a house with a flat roof).

Looks like a SE breeze is now blowing here but still 33 degrees after a 35c day! So sea breeze has had no impact on the temperature.

Just like yesterday Tony thats the disturbing part if a seabreeze this time of the year can't knock off even a few degrees off the temp and still gets to 35.5c then imagine how it would be Saturday with a 25 knot Northerly blowing

Yeah I think they should Petros. This heat is really starting to dry out the plantations and grass across the state, even in areas where rainfall has been great over the past several months. The undersoil is still pretty dry which is resulting in things drying out so quickly. Near where I live, the Otways, its over-grown and everything and its getting dry too in this heat. And with the temperatures at near 40 or more on Saturday across much Central and Western Victoria and with the strengthening northerly winds (about 40-50 km/h), its a fairly bad fire-day. I am not saying there will be a major outbreak or anything, but we need the TFB for saftey measures on this particular day. FFDI ratings should be fairly high as well i'd imagine.

John, I was out your way when I had work experience at the BoM a few weeks back. Things look absolutley terrible mate, and if our grass is starting to dry out, I cannot imagine what your place is like, or your region in fact.

Johnno wrote:If its dry there Jake imagine how bad it is here! where I've had 1/3 of your rainfall this year.

Saturday is looking terrible to me Mid to Late Spring version of Feb 7th to me (perhaps with bit less wind) meaning if this were to happen in Late Jan early Feb this weather pattern add on another 5-7c and it would be February 7th conditions all over again with temps in the Mid 40's quite easy in Melbourne and possibily higher in other parts and thats no slight over dramatising so those who may doubt that Feb 7th temps may not happen again anytime soon it is very possible it could happen as soon as the next few years. These temps forecasted this time of year are record breaking stuff for parts of Victoria.


I've been saying since May/June to few of my close friends in person and on the phone that I expected a hot and dry November and December this year and a good September and October interms of rainfall (October could of been better in parts but Okay in others) and so far looks to be heading that way. My reasons were with the developing El nino.. History during El ninos during these 2 months and the fact we have had it real good last couple of years with these 2 months so usually things balance out. In saying this I expect January and February to be wet I would certaintly not be suprised if we get our Summer the next 2 months (Nov and Dec) infact thats what I am generally expecting.

Hi Johnno
In terms of this developing El Nino, I have been reading that the Models predict that this El Nino would not peak til during Summer around Jan and Feb (As apposed to Nov/Dec last the last ones), so if true would that not mean that Jan and Fen are likely to be dry and hot also until the El Nino breaks down around March time?

I dont know what it is I just reckon that its going to be hot and dry until March time, obviously we are going to get cooler periods in between, but in general its going to be similar to what we are experiencing now (Apart from Xmas time where its always cool )

Very warm still presently with SE winds developing now. Should drop away in the next hour.

I think tomorrow will be similar to today. Not much really to add than watch for some convection along the ranges, maybe sinking far enough south Wed/Thur to reach the outer east and north of Melbourne.

In reference to the last few posts, in particular Johnno's, I am glad I spent the last few weeks giving my property the biggest haircut of all time. A very settling feeling by keeping things trim if the prog for this Sat eventuates. There is a very slight SE breeze blowing here at present and temp now down to 29.1 There is an automated private weather station that I was monitoring earlier this arvo in Pakenham (35 kms west of my loc) and at one stage it was displaying a temp of 38.6 - whether the owner has it sitting on a tin roof who knows but I was surprised by the reading.

Hi Watto, Hope it doesn't breakdown later it may change things abit but whether if El Nino is strong around that time or not the Summer rainfall down here particulary Jan and feb isn't usually effected as much as Nov and Dec. Example of this is 1998 it took forever before that El nino broke down cos it was so strong and didn't begin too weaken until early 1998 but if I recall it was a dry end fo 1997 and Jan and feb we had good rains here in Melbourne with both months around 60mm for the CBD but be interesting to see if it breaksdown a month or 2 later to when it usually does but regardless the strength of an El Nino I have generally read that El Nino's and rainfall for Victoria/Melbourne in Mid to Late Summer and Early Autumn have a very weak correlation.

Anyway sorry to go off the topic guys.

Thanks for the info John it makes it Clearer.. Incedently the temps for Jan and Feb for 1998 were above average at 27.2 and 27.9 respectivly so there still must have been some heat about

No worries mate. Yes quite tropical that period was above average temps but fairly good rainfall as well. Hopefully we will see a similar Jan and feb. In the shorter term hopefully we will see some rain later next week in the meantime dry and hot for the majority of us.

Yeah, 1997 the dams were at 80% and in that same year on January 20th/21st we had fires on the Mornington Peninsula, the Dandenongs, Heatherton, Campbellfield, Thomastown, Blackburn Lake. It was without doubt a busier day than this year's fires.

Looks like EC has now killed the weekends front and bring even hotter conditions early/mid next week - there is no significant break until (at least) the end of next week.

Welcome to hell

Absolute shocker in Melbourne today. Urban heat island effect intensifies the heat massively in the inner city and inner suburban areas. Melbourne CBD ended up one of the hottest places in the state, it was actually cooler further inland today. 36C at Mildura and Viewbank which is extraordinary stuff. Here it looks like it was around 31C today after a minimum of 14C. Wish I could stay here and write Melbourne off for the week, it's just absolutely atrocious down there without the sea breeze when we have heat like this, like hell on earth literally.

It should 'cool down' a bit mid week as winds tend southerly and probably most places on and south of the ranges could expect a degree or two off the temps we've been having. More reduction of temp the closer to the coast you get. Not sure about Saturday. It seems GFS is usually the most enthusiastic model when it comes to heatwaves or cold snaps and it's indicating at this stage 850T of around 18C to 19C in Melbourne which would indicate around 34C to 36C in Melbourne IMO. Other models may be less keen the way I'm reading it. EC has the change through roughly mid afternoon (estimating) on Saturday and looks like it may only be low to mid 30s in Melbourne if that's the case. Sunday then has us in much cooler southerlies and temps in the low 20s. GFS delays the change until late on Sunday and gives us 24C 850T inland and around 21C to 22C in Melbourne. This would translate to around 38C-40C in Melbourne with no cloud. Can't see this happening though at this stage because the other models are leaning towards the change coming through Saturday and around 30 hrs ahead of GFS so maybe GFS is going just a little bit stupid atm. Anyway we'll have to wait and see.

Just to add to the Jan Feb 1998 chat,

Jan saw 6 days in a row above 30.....from the 9th to the 14th, then on the 17th there was a 42 degree day. Also the 21st and 22nd saw another 2 days above 30. The last nine days of the month saw temps no higher than 27 with 2 days at 19c.
Melb recorded 59.4mm, with most of that (about 49mm) actually falling in a 2 day period towards the end of the month, during the cool outbreak.

It looks to have been a stormy month in my eyes because some eastern suburbs saw a heavy down pour, on the 12/13th of the month at the end of the mid month 'heatwave'. Some E suburbs and the Dandenongs saw over 100mm during the month, like Berwick(120.6mm), Mitcham(120.6mm), Monbulk(105.2mm), Moorabbin(122mm, (91mm on the 13th), Mt St Leonard(121.8mm), Narre Warren(107.6mm), Seville (132.2mm), Springvale (108.4mm). Some of those suburbs had rain during 2 episodes, at the end of the heat, as well as during the cold snap.

Again Feb was a mixed month. The first week saw temps between 24c to 35c, then low 20's for 2 days, then low 30's for 2 days. the temps cooled down until we had 18 degree day on the 16th. Towards the end of the month there were 3 hot days, 34c on the 24th, 39c on the 25th and 42c on the 26th.

Melbourne saw 71.6mm, with 20mm falling on the at the end of the first week, (maybe with a strong change?) then a 33mm fall on the 16th (with the cold day), and another 12mm on the 27th (again maybe after a strong change)

Thought people may find this interesting