Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  mick on Tue Nov 10, 2009 2:48 pm

Not much relief from the s/e wind down here again. Second day in a row mid 30s and no howling northerly. Thats odd. Bay was 12 a month ago. I agree with the opinion on restrictions.

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  DDRE78 on Tue Nov 10, 2009 2:49 pm

Hi All,

Have made the move over from WeatherZone, first time in the forums since Black Saturday.

There has been a SW/SE wind for most of the afternoon, and like yesterday its done nothing to help. Still very uncomfortable outside.

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Johnno on Tue Nov 10, 2009 3:05 pm

Latest EC slowing the change too Jake into Sunday now so the inevitable is happening

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Sniper on Tue Nov 10, 2009 3:09 pm

Firstly, welcome DDRE78!!

Got off train at Box Hill to a stiff brezze and probably 30. Back at home some 10mins away and no breeze/34.

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Tue Nov 10, 2009 3:12 pm

Not much relief from the s/e wind down here again. Second day in a row mid 30s and no howling northerly. Thats odd.

Mick this pattern of extreme heat without northerlies (or strong northerlies) is something entirely new in my experience. Now we are getting phenomenal heatwaves lasting long periods with stagnant weather patterns which just bake and bake. The Dec 2007/Jan 08 heatwave, Mar 2007 heatwave, Jan 2009 heatwave, and now this one have just been suffocating heat without any obvious synoptic driver. The sun just beats down with temperatures of 35C+ even in southerlies.

I don't think we can say that this is part of some natural ebb and flow, we have now seen 3 one in 1 hundred+ year heatwaves in just 18 months (and that's not counting the phenomenal heatwave in August). I simply can't recall the last time we have a record breaking cold spell down here - can anyone?

Given that we have now had a 13 year drought (more than twice as long as any previous Melbourne drought) it should come as no surprise that the nature of heatwaves is also changing.

BTW notice that NOGAPS has the change slowing so that Sunday is also hot. Hopefully EC is right and we get the Saturday front.

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Lily on Tue Nov 10, 2009 3:16 pm

Welcome DDRE, nice to have another new member here Smile

Just picked up my little guy from cricket training - they'd called it off as it was too hot and spent the night in the clubrooms discussing game tactics. He plays in Under 11's, I'm not sure exactly what tactics they discussed, other than making sure the ball made it down the wicket in a straight line Laughing

So Saturday and now possibly Sunday are both going to be nasty days, is that right?

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Tue Nov 10, 2009 3:16 pm

Latest EC is in and looks down right ugly. Front still in Western Victoria at lunchtime Sunday with 30 knot NW winds at 850hPa and temperatures of +22C. Would expect Saturday night to be the hottest night on record for much of the southeast and Sunday to be down-right horrible.

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Bobman on Tue Nov 10, 2009 3:29 pm

Just looking outside, the sky is grey/cloudy. Odd, but at least the sun has headed home.

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Johnno on Tue Nov 10, 2009 3:39 pm

Yep DJ as I was saying in the previous page to Jake EC slows the front right down so coming through when all the other models have it coming through now which is Sunday! And damn right ugly preety much sums it up. 40c is possible now in Melbourne both Saturday and Sunday but more Sunday and if the fire danger is going through the roof Saturday then expect Sunday to be even worse guys.

As for record breaking cold spells they rarely happen but do recall some of the Alps here in Victoria having the coldest April temps on record after the Late April cold snap this year for SE Australia with Mt.Hotham getting -9c but as you say very few and very far inbetween and very very isolated as well.


Welcome DDRE to the forum Basketball

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  AUS_Twisted on Tue Nov 10, 2009 3:59 pm

Some lightning activity N of Falls Creek, good chance of those starting fires with no rain around
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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  mick on Tue Nov 10, 2009 4:02 pm

No need to worry about them, the DSE as predicted has started a number of its own that have burnt outside containment lines.

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Johnno on Tue Nov 10, 2009 4:09 pm

This heatwave thread I think should extend the dates until the weekend so until the 15th by the look of things. Apart for parts of the South on Thursday it preety much looks hot all the way peaking on the weekend throughout.

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Tue Nov 10, 2009 4:42 pm

Johnno wrote:Latest EC slowing the change too Jake into Sunday now so the inevitable is happening

How did I know this would happen Rolling Eyes I was expecting the possibility of a stalled change yesterday and models are agreeing, coming into line with GFS. Hmmmm. Looks like Saturday and Sunday will be close to 40 degrees across most of Victoria, particularly Sunday with the fresh northwest winds, though only mid-high 30's in the east on Saturday. Still though, bad fire weather with the fresh north/northwest winds and I really think the CFA should issue a TFB for both days now.

The change should only bring a few isolated showers and thunderstorms with it, not much at all and then conditions look like edging back into near 40 degree heat by next Thursday. Exclamation

Otherwise, today was fine and sunny with temperatures reaching around 34/5 degrees, not sure on the exact temperature yet, have not checked the weather station (lazy I know) but a little bit of cloud around this afternoon and evening and some local convection. Not amounting to anything though.

Also interesting to see a thunderstorm over the NE ranges this afternoon. I am still expecting to see the possibility for further isolated afternoon thunderstorms over the western/wimmera districts and on the northeast ranges again Wednesday afternoon and even perhaps Thursday afternoon too. Mostly dry however.

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Nov 10, 2009 4:48 pm

33C at Mount Macedon today. Evil or Very Mad It's just getting plain nasty now. Still getting the cool minimums though which is a massive reprieve. 14C again at sunrise this morning, diurnal temperature ranges have been very large for this time of year, classic desert style weather. Only going to get worse. Desperately hoping this southerly can at least have some sort of effect over the next few days. Not 100% sure about tomorrow, still reckon it will be very hot again in Melbourne and possibly still mid 30s although later in the day it should cool down a fair bit. Thursday and Friday do look cooler with established southerlies extending to the ranges but then we have hell on earth to face on the weekend. The chance of storms for the next few days on the ranges but IMO only a fairly slight chance, not expecting much at all. It will be interesting to see what happens if the change comes through Sunday afternoon with half decent moisture and a big temp gradient. Could be a damaging line of storms but that's a long way off.

It's just completely ridiculous why we keep getting these psycho high ridges setting up over us from nowhere and sometimes lasting up to a month. It seems to happen once or twice a year and when it happens in the warmer months of the year it is literally mayhem and chaos in terms of heat.

Not enjoying this at all, the heat in itself is bad enough but the fact it is happening in early-mid November is enough to drive you totally insane. geek

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  norfolk on Tue Nov 10, 2009 4:59 pm

Jake...lazy or distracted? lol (in joke!)

after being out in that sun this afternoon, I really really feel for those working out in it. Was 35.3 out here, that's now (for me) 4 days above 30 and 3 days above 35. I have registered, 33.1, 35.2, 35.1, 35.3.

For Melbourne, am I right in seeing that this is the first time we have had 4 days above 32 in November?

Tony

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  DC449 on Tue Nov 10, 2009 5:00 pm

31 Degrees here currently... Not looking forward to Sunday. Way to early for this man!!!
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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Johnno on Tue Nov 10, 2009 5:12 pm

norfolk wrote:Jake...lazy or distracted? lol (in joke!)

after being out in that sun this afternoon, I really really feel for those working out in it. Was 35.3 out here, that's now (for me) 4 days above 30 and 3 days above 35. I have registered, 33.1, 35.2, 35.1, 35.3.

For Melbourne, am I right in seeing that this is the first time we have had 4 days above 32 in November?

Tony

Yes Tony thats right mate

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Stratospear on Tue Nov 10, 2009 5:14 pm

Sea-surface temps in Indian Ocean are certainly interesting atm. Big +ve anomalies off NW shelf towards Indonesia... something has got to give...eventually. MJO pulse is strong and mobile atm too. Although that can supercharge ElNino.

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  dagget on Tue Nov 10, 2009 5:22 pm

24.5 here at the moment, not looking forward to this weather at all, way to early in the year for this, feels like late Jan/feb already.

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  norfolk on Tue Nov 10, 2009 5:42 pm

Can we safely say we have never seen anything like this in November? We now have broken the record for most days above 32 in a row for November!

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Tue Nov 10, 2009 5:48 pm

We are getting there, it will depend if the weekend heatwave and then a follow up heatwave eventuates...if that happens it will SMASH the records.

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Tue Nov 10, 2009 5:50 pm

Of course we havent seen anything like this....just like the 93 year old i spoke to yesterday who told me how the Murray ran dry many years ago...yes folks thats right this is weather and it happens just like this.....scary hey? You know how stupid people sound on here saying i have never seen this before?? Of course not, we are all mostly under 40 years old..do yourself a favour, go speak to some old people who still have there senses and they will tell you this all the rivers have run dry before.....shock horror OMG...
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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  norfolk on Tue Nov 10, 2009 5:59 pm

Of course I haven't seen this before but neither has any white man in the history of melbournians recording weather....we have NEVER had 4 consecutive days above 32c (90F) in November. NEVER!

Oh and I dont think the Murray has every run dry...it may have stagnated in the past but there nas never been a dry Murray river I dont think.

Oh and can someone tell me the last time Melbourne (or central Victoria area at least) has had 13 years of low rainfall?


Last edited by norfolk on Tue Nov 10, 2009 6:03 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Bobman on Tue Nov 10, 2009 6:00 pm

I don't think there has been a single year in the past on record that has had so many strange events like this year has.

January 28-30 heatwave
February 7
March storms
September 29 degree record breaker and above average rain
October storm event
November heatwave

Would be curious how close we can find another year in the past that had similar events all in that same year. Yeah, weather happens but I'd also question the accuracy of old weather data (pre 1950s).

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Tue Nov 10, 2009 6:07 pm

Yeah, I think we can probably take out a few of those events because they are not all that rare (storm events etc.) but definitely the heat this year has been crazy.

I told a friend today that I will really start worrying if we get at least two days 46 or higher this summer, surely the alarm bells would really be ringing then, otherwise if we go back to normality for a number of years and get cooler temps and above average rainfall then a lot of the heat events could be classed simply as anomalies and could be part of a natural pattern.

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

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