Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Page 9 of 11 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 8, 9, 10, 11  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Tue Nov 10, 2009 6:56 pm

[quote="norfolk"]Oh and I dont think the Murray has every run dry...it may have stagnated in the past but there nas never been a dry Murray river I dont think.[quote]

I have seen many photos of a dry river bed at Mildura and locals and travellers used the sandy bottom as a road because it was easier travelling than up out in the scrub. The Murray has indeed run dry many times before. It would have run dry several time in the last few year if the dams were not there. People have become far too accustomed to seeing a flowing river. They forget that it is only because of the dams the the river is so steady.

Why here, after a quick google is a link to a story about this

www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/001629.html


Last edited by Malleefarmer on Tue Nov 10, 2009 7:01 pm; edited 1 time in total

Malleefarmer

Posts : 178
Join date : 2009-05-23

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  norfolk on Tue Nov 10, 2009 7:00 pm

I am happy to be proven wrong and someone from the Mallee would have more idea than me....but I have always thought that while the Darling has regularly run dry, as it has been recently, I thought the Murray has been extremely low but not dry.

Again I say I happy to be proven wrong

norfolk

Posts : 413
Join date : 2009-05-19
Age : 41
Location : Caroline Springs

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Tue Nov 10, 2009 7:03 pm

Please look at the link I put in the post above yours... I edited it while you were writing yours. It shows horse and gigs on a dry river bed.

Malleefarmer

Posts : 178
Join date : 2009-05-23

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  dagget on Tue Nov 10, 2009 7:32 pm

No doubt it happened in the past and certainly an interesting photo, and would certainly like to know more. I also agree that there is too much of a short term outlook for discussions of this nature...although anthing published by the Institute for Public Affairs, the climate skeptics cheerleaders would need a bit of close examination as the rest of the website does not seem very, err, balanced......

dagget

Posts : 160
Join date : 2009-06-30
Age : 44
Location : Woodend

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Sniper on Tue Nov 10, 2009 7:42 pm

06Z GFS is pushing the change further back, between midnight and daybreak on Monday. Some incredible 850's in there. Giles (WA) and Alice Springs covered in 28's whilst much of SA is 23+.

The thing that is spooking me are the high DP's. Normally in heatwaves we have low or negative DP's (due to the Northerly winds), but I am sitting here on 27/14.


Last edited by Sniper on Tue Nov 10, 2009 7:45 pm; edited 1 time in total

Sniper

Posts : 652
Join date : 2009-06-12
Age : 39
Location : Doncaster East - 133 asl

http://www.stubbysolutions.com.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Nov 10, 2009 7:42 pm

I know some people will suggest that this sort of weather may have happened before meteorological records began, i.e. 200, 1000, 10,000 years ago or whatever because we have no evidence either way, but this is completely irrelevant because white settlement began when it did in around the 1830s in our state and neither we nor our ancestors in Aus have ever seen such prolonged drought or intense heatwaves in both duration and magnitude or such warm weather on average before, EVER.

Given that we have already set up our society, culture, infrastructure and lifestyle based on the traditional climate that we had in the past, which on average was a classic temperate one not dissimilar to many places in Europe and North America, and also the fact that our natural environment, flora and fauna etc. have evolved over many thousands of years, hundreds of thousands of years in some cases, to survive in a temperate climate with basically reliable rainfall and moderate temperatures, this sort of climate, over time, will completely destroy us if it continues on year after year and sooner rather than later.

droughtbreaker

Posts : 640
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 35
Location : Mount Macedon (520m asl)

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Nov 10, 2009 7:54 pm

Going a bit off topic here but I have an interesting question to pose

How could a species of tree like the Wollemi pine survive for 2 million years in eastern Australian rain forests (at the very least in the sandstone gorges of the Blue Mountains) if our climate within that time went through periods of desertification (which is what our climate is now quickly heading towards) with intense heatwaves and drought over extended periods. How could our local rainforest trees like the Antarctic Beech and tree ferns etc. that have evolved over millions of years to exist in wet and temperate conditions, still exist in the same environments and not have died out at some stage. I don't buy the whole 'it may have happened before 10,000 years ago' line.

Anyway back on topic. GFS keeps Melbourne out of 20C 850T for the entire period so if the current scenario plays out we may only be looking at 37C or 38C in Melbourne on Sunday and 35C or 36C on Saturday. Still a disgusting prospect but at this early stage a good sign that we may stay out of 40C territory (which will be scary if it comes off).

droughtbreaker

Posts : 640
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 35
Location : Mount Macedon (520m asl)

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Tue Nov 10, 2009 8:01 pm

I am just amazed that 06z GFS has stalled the change longer. I wonder if it will hold its current progs now and if other models will follow. Originally this evening I thought the change would come through my area midday Sunday, but the latest prog has it coming through my area late in the day now, central parts overnight. GFS is going real well though, other models following it lately. And BoM have some quite big changes on their forecasts to come re temperatures too.

Power Storm

Posts : 703
Join date : 2009-05-18
Age : 23
Location : Simpson South

http://www.australianweathernow.yolasite.com

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Stratospear on Tue Nov 10, 2009 8:19 pm

I wonder if this is having an influence on our current heatwave:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao_index.html

The polar vortex is certainly doing some strange things this year. Check out the shape of the hole in the ozone layer...
http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/

Stratospear

Posts : 32
Join date : 2009-09-06
Location : Lilydale

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Wed Nov 11, 2009 4:25 am

Another hot one overnight in the hills 19.9C. Today should be a tad cooler than yesterday and IMHO Wed/Thur/Fri all run the risk of falling short in 30C in the south. We have got moderate midlevel SW winds and a slack pressure gradient which should support sea breezes.

EC is now starting to go a bit loopy for the weekend with very hot uppers but next to no pressure gradient. Saturday could even see light southerlies in the south. In the north it's going to be furiously hot (850T of 22-25C which could well see 45C in parts of northern Vic/southern NSW).

Of course we havent seen anything like this....just like the 93 year old i spoke to yesterday who told me how the Murray ran dry many years ago.

The large scale development of irrigation in the late 19th/early 20th century is responsible for the river running dry back then. The river was not managed as it is now and it was not hard for irrigators to suck/divert it dry during droughts. The current drought is now longer, hotter and drier than those earlier droughts but controlled releases of water from weirs and standards on enviornmental flows mean it doe not (usually) run dry. Thankfully the system is run better now.

BTW don't take too much notice of Jennifer. She represented the IPA - a lobbying group - which has variously worked for big irrigators (read cotton etc). Others linked to this group are Bill Kinimonth & Bob Carter.

PS let's take the "has it happened before" over to the Climate Area.

hillybilly

Posts : 742
Join date : 2009-05-18
Location : Ferny Creek

http://www.bom.gov.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  windyrob on Wed Nov 11, 2009 4:47 am

Its certainly an crazy year and an insane heatwave. As for the Murray running dry, the snowy hydro stopped that!
Now as for climate the sediment cores on both sides of the pacific show that ENSO variability is associated with a cooling climate. The climate 5000 years ago (holocene optimum) was wetter and more consistent than today, and 2deg warmer. the problem now seem to be that we're in no mans land, since the 98 shift were too warm for the antarctic fronts and to cold for the tropical moisture. Its a shame australia was settle during the coldest period of the last 500 years as we have no record of what climate variability was at temps similar to today. Mind you I would love to see the introduction of the siesta to australia Cool

[let's move the climate discussions to the climatology area - Hilly Billy - and let's keep it polite]

windyrob

Posts : 59
Join date : 2009-08-15
Age : 39
Location : Hawthorn

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Nov 11, 2009 8:02 am

Just sitting on 29.3 here so even though Melbourne is a little cooler - most of the metro area is baking again...

Up to 34C this afternoon out here.

Karl Lijnders

Posts : 1472
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 32
Location : Knoxfield, Victoria

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Sniper on Wed Nov 11, 2009 9:01 am

Melbourne oh so close to the 30 degree mark.
Storm chart gives a "chance" today over the Western/Central ranges. Mainly damaging winds if they come to fruition.

Sniper

Posts : 652
Join date : 2009-06-12
Age : 39
Location : Doncaster East - 133 asl

http://www.stubbysolutions.com.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Nov 11, 2009 9:32 am

32C here now. Melbourne should go 32C later.

Modest convection over the northern sky.

Karl Lijnders

Posts : 1472
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 32
Location : Knoxfield, Victoria

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Wed Nov 11, 2009 10:29 am

This mornings sound at Melbourne Ap is half decent. It shows TT of 47 and a LI of (about) -2. The current obs around Melbourne show LI well into negatives.

The problem for convection is a warm layer at about 750hPa. If something punches through this it should go on to have a top near 40,000 feet.

The current EC has a little patchy shower activity the next 6-12 hours about the NE ranges and southern slopes of the central ranges.... so fingers crossed. Also good moisture in the low levels so if something gets going it could be heavy.

hillybilly

Posts : 742
Join date : 2009-05-18
Location : Ferny Creek

http://www.bom.gov.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Nov 11, 2009 10:44 am

Seabresze front should be the focus along the divide and be after 7pm.

Karl Lijnders

Posts : 1472
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 32
Location : Knoxfield, Victoria

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Nov 11, 2009 11:29 am

35-36C across many suburbs currently which is insane given the absence of a northerly breeze!!!

Karl Lijnders

Posts : 1472
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 32
Location : Knoxfield, Victoria

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Twister on Wed Nov 11, 2009 11:59 am

So Over this heat mainly due to not having ANY cooling were I live No air con and only small fans its 29-30c inside ALL The time and still have DAYS of heat to go and have an exam next week cant study or sleep hate it.

Well over 30c today as expected think tomorrow might just make it to 30c in the city but bay side burbs around 28c and Friday and Sat and Sunday def be 30c+ so smashing records.

Cool change for the Monday keeps getting weaker Sunday up to 30c and would not be surprised if it bumped to 34c and Saturday 37c crazy stuff over it.

Next week not looking any better

Twister

Posts : 80
Join date : 2009-07-01
Location : Notting Hill

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Stratospear on Wed Nov 11, 2009 12:25 pm

I can relate to the "not being able to study for exams because it's too hot" drama. I'm trying to study hard in the morning and evening, but have a siesta plus swim in the arvo.

GFS has been hinting at relief later next week. Maybe as the polar vortex collapses it might fling some cold fronts our way and send the poleward drifting subtropical air back to where it belongs.

BTW, Northern Vic has been in meltdown today. Lots of 40degC+ along the river...

Stratospear

Posts : 32
Join date : 2009-09-06
Location : Lilydale

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Nov 11, 2009 12:56 pm

And some decent convection over the N and NE sky with the extra heat.

Karl Lijnders

Posts : 1472
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 32
Location : Knoxfield, Victoria

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  norfolk on Wed Nov 11, 2009 1:04 pm

5th day in a row above 32.....1. This surely matches the day for long heatwave for melbourne and 2. When was the last time that has happened in ANY month? Maybe it was recent, but even during last years heatwave, we saw 4 consecutive days above 32 in January (mind you it was 5 consecutive days above 30, 4 consecutive days above 35 and 3 above 43) And February had 30's (plus the horrendeous 46) punctered here and there but not 5 consecutive days above 32.

norfolk

Posts : 413
Join date : 2009-05-19
Age : 41
Location : Caroline Springs

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Wed Nov 11, 2009 1:11 pm

Well another day of bouncing around40-42 up here. Bloody hot outside but still gotta move grain so coming in to cool off and rehydrate and back out into it. Gotta go back for another block of shifts at the mione and that will be a lot worse the at home. Actually a bit concerned about going down with heat stroke as I don't have a cool place to go and nowhere to store cool drinks. It will be about 50 in the bottom of the red dirt pit and humid to boot so will be taking 30+ litres with me.

Malleefarmer

Posts : 178
Join date : 2009-05-23

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Johnno on Wed Nov 11, 2009 1:11 pm

Looks like my Forecast temps yesterday are on the mark again in my Forecasts with my Min of 21 and Max of 34c for today once again BOM underestimated the degree of how hot this atmosphere actually is and how little effect the seabreeze is having.

Foul way to spend my birthday with this weather especially after 5 days of this ridicolous heat.

Johnno

Posts : 741
Join date : 2009-05-18
Age : 39
Location : Near the Showgrounds

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Johnno on Wed Nov 11, 2009 1:34 pm

The Bay & Coastal temps continue to roar up today it is at an average of 18.8c Port phillip bay now! Up 0.9c in the past 24 hours alone and up 1.5c since Monday when it was 17.3c. The Northern parts of the bay is approaching 20c quite extradionary really given excatly a month ago bay temps were still around 13c. These temps the bay and coastal areas that we are having currently are temps that we are usually use too in Mid to Late December.

http://www.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au/~awatkins/temps.html

Johnno

Posts : 741
Join date : 2009-05-18
Age : 39
Location : Near the Showgrounds

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Twister on Wed Nov 11, 2009 1:49 pm

Well It has happened The cool change has almost disappeared and it now looks like we will have 8 days in a row above 30c in the City CRAZY for November and then getting even hotter mid to late next week.
OMG this is going to be a RECORD HOT and dry month smashing everything and baking and cooking not only Melbourne and the state but All the SE is baking

First of Many 40c days in the N NW today and that will just sit there till Sunday before cooling to mid 30s Monday then back up again mid next week.

I saw this over a week ago like many but didn't think it would be this massive, it is now looking like a record hot month for many towns city's, the states Vic, SA and W and S NSW have a Long Hot 10 days ahead and hopefully no longer than that

34c here today expecting 31c here tomorrow and back to the 33-35c range Friday-Sunday

Poor Inland folk though if didn't have Great air cooling it would be hell they might see up to 6 days above 40c next 10 days nuts

Twister

Posts : 80
Join date : 2009-07-01
Location : Notting Hill

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 9 of 11 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 8, 9, 10, 11  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum