Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Johnno on Sun Nov 08, 2009 10:58 am

Bobman the information the media has is based on the 3 month rainfall outlook from the BOM given out in October for the Nov to Jan period. The info on the Elders site which I think has some kind of connection with BOM (DJ/Hillybilly may be able to answer this) only updated couple of days ago.

This set up definetly now reminds me from the Xmas period last year til Early February with a huge upper high near us as well, it also starting to remind me of March 2008. I guess we were due for something like this happening cos from Early July to Early October we had to much of a good run (not so much here though as I have largely missed out here apart from some good September rain here) But as DJ says tends to happen quite frequent these days June 2006 was another scenario (records low Mins severe frosts, still sunny days and virtually no rain all month) as was April 2005 with mid 30's temps in Melbourne breaking records just seems to happen once or even twice a year now something like this which is worrying and what worries me even more is notice the other 4 times it happend the 1st part of the year Summer to Autumn/Early Winter period which can be renoun for blocks but this time round its in the 2nd part of the year in the heart of Spring (our wettest season and November is normally Melbournes equal 2nd wettest Month) if you really think about it we are right in the middle of Spring given the Summer Solistice isn't til 21st December.

Hopefully the very warm ssts NW of Australia will work in our favour the next 3 to 6 weeks.


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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  norfolk on Sun Nov 08, 2009 11:01 am

Interesting Jake your DP is rising, ours is down to about 7 here. Well I am looking at laverton which is 7.4 and the same at the Airport.

34 degrees here too clear skies with onl the hint of some clouds about

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Sun Nov 08, 2009 11:53 am

Temperature has hit 35.5 degrees here with the DP still the same. Looks like we are currently the hottest in Victoria, then its Port Fairy amazingly on 34.8 degrees followed closley by Geelong Aiport on 34.4 degrees. Absolutley amazing stuff!

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  norfolk on Sun Nov 08, 2009 12:25 pm

I have 34.7 here, although close by, Laverton is at 33.4. I really wish they officially recorded temps in Melton so I could get a more accurate reading for this western corridor.

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Sun Nov 08, 2009 1:40 pm

33.9 max @ 3.09pm, shocking hay fever haven't had that in years. Loving this evap cooler.
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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Sun Nov 08, 2009 1:41 pm

I think we can extend the dates in the title of this thread. Looking like records are going to be broken Shocked

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Twister on Sun Nov 08, 2009 1:56 pm

OMG at latest Forecast looking HOT looks mid 30s tomorrow as many were saying and expecting no surprise there.
Looks like 4 days in a row above 30c then us folk get a cool down to upper 20s before another 4 days in a row above 30c with a few mid 30s thrown in again
But Mildura I feel from them there outlook is unreal looks typical of a January heatwave not NOT NOVEMBER insane heat up there not good.
For record sake.
Mildura
Min20Max36
Min20Max38
Min23Max40
Min23Max40
Min23Max41
Min23Max43
Min23Max44
These temps are insane and the record is 44c so it could fall if forecast is right but it is a week away.
Still I think they as well as many in N Vic, SA and NSW will see 3-5days in a row above 40c, crazy and scary stuff by late November everything will be extremely dry and brown not good.

Still no signs of rain next week or so Could be a record November for the wrong reasons

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  floydlove on Sun Nov 08, 2009 2:45 pm

Umm haha, this is a bit ridiculous? Suddenly we are just thrown into summer and it's November. It's not the temperatures in particular, well for Melbourne anyway, but the duration and the heat doesn't peak to next weekend. Neutral

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Sun Nov 08, 2009 2:55 pm

I dont think so ILS...in fact i think we are all in for a bit of a shock as to how this week pans out..

Expect some activity pretty close on tuesday/wed, last week all that moisture was advected from Northern NSW and after another 500mm there yesterday it will creep in until Wednesday when we go onshore for a couple of days, then the weekend it will be straight back into it with a low pressure trough about. Another thing i noticed today also on the sat pic was that the cold air is still surging up from a long long way south, and if it gets a run into SE OZ over the next month expect some records to fall of a different kind..
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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Bobman on Sun Nov 08, 2009 2:58 pm

Watch the colds and hayfever go nuts with people as the temperatures fluctuate from a high to low overnight in coming weeks. I've already had a fair amount of above-average sneezing in the last 2 months.

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Sun Nov 08, 2009 3:06 pm

Still expecting the slight possiblity (less than 10% chance) for isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms in the Western/Wimmera districts tomorrow, and then possible over the ranges and western districts on Tuesday and Wednesday, could even stick around on Thursday.

Saturday is looking quite hot at this stage from the latest model prognostics. Cooler weather eventuating gradually throughout on Sunday before we head back into another unsettled northeast flow again.

EDIT: Also should probably mention that early estimates are putting FFDI values in the Mallee at 67 on Thursday. Thats sees 'severe' fire danger. Most likely some fire weather warnings in the near future.


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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Sun Nov 08, 2009 3:09 pm

Just looking at the models and the last half of this month could end being an absolute cracker with sustained LPT on our doorstep and warm humid conditions under almost Easterly Dip conditions...i dont think we are too far away from all the planets aligning, as i said earlier, especially if the cold air finds a way in through the back door..
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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Johnno on Sun Nov 08, 2009 3:43 pm

Still not expecting much this week isolated storms on the ranges at best but temps shouldn't be to bad in Melbourne Wednesday to Friday high 20's Wed and Friday I feel and possibily even lower Thursday with a high just west of us so can't see it go beyond 25c.

Next saturday looks like a doozey heatwise and will take the cake for the highest temps over the state and Melbourne during this sequence. Change by the looks of it Sat night then EC wants to destablise things with a trough and slight cooler upper following that into the new week but thats a long way out at the moment but I am sticking too this pattern well and truly breaking down between the 18th and the 20th with a LWT and Moisture gearing up through WA and SA at the end of EC's run.

Also I am going away for 3 days between the 20th and 22nd down the coast so mother nature is waiting to rain cats and dogs just in time for me to enjoy my holiday so hence you can mark it down we will definetly get some weather by then.

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  mick on Sun Nov 08, 2009 4:05 pm

God to abt 33 here today. felt hotter, had to resort to the a/c as not acclimatised yet. I think we all will be by this time next week.

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Sun Nov 08, 2009 4:08 pm

Is it possible that someone 'teaches' me hpw they work out temperatures by looking at the models?

Norfolk - it ain't actually that easy. For summer the best strategy is to take the 850hPa temperatures for the afternoon and add 17-18C. An alternative is to take the 1000hPa temperature at 5pm and add and 2C. These rules need to vary depending on the amount of cloud, timing of front etc.

For the really hot days it is usually pretty straight forwards. The +17C rule works a treat - it was about spot on the Black Saturday for example. Using this rule Melbourne could well see a 37C next Saturday, depending on the timing of the front.

Not much more to add. This heat is just going to grind on for the whole week. Will be a bit of relief near the coast but away from the beaches it will just grind on and on and next week looks like more of the same.

BTW have spent the weekend in Sandy Point (my escape from the heat!). The water temperatures down here have warmed up super fast as shown by this graph (http://www.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au/~awatkins/temps.html). Imagine that this must be getting close to a record for this time of year.

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Johnno on Sun Nov 08, 2009 4:22 pm

Will only help Hillybilly once we get a proper rainevent or showery outbreak to come through

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Sun Nov 08, 2009 4:33 pm

The fire southeast of Orbost is controlled and the fire west of Mallacoota is now contained. Both fires are around 600 ha in size. More info in fire weather thread.

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Sun Nov 08, 2009 4:46 pm

Johnno wrote:Also I am going away for 3 days between the 20th and 22nd down the coast so mother nature is waiting to rain cats and dogs just in time for me to enjoy my holiday so hence you can mark it down we will definetly get some weather by then.

If that's the case John, can't you go away more often? Maybe take a trip to London or something for a year or so! Laughing

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  norfolk on Sun Nov 08, 2009 5:07 pm

hahah Jake!

looking at the Bay temps, maybe that the reason why the seabreeze didnt really occur the other day when I expected it. And could be why from now on, we wont have too many seabreezy days where the bayside is MUCH cooler than inland suburbs

Just an opinion

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Johnno on Sun Nov 08, 2009 5:18 pm

I think Jake wants me out of here lol.

Get my reply Jake PM from earlier on?

Seabreeze did come through today Tony from 4pm onwards but for some reason there wasn't a drop in temps which was abit odd only now we are starting to see some effects of it

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Sun Nov 08, 2009 5:51 pm

No didn't get it John. Wonder what happened?

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Johnno on Sun Nov 08, 2009 6:11 pm

Oh thats ok thats weird.. was just saying it has been dry here had 270mm for the year and heading for the driest yr on record here well since white civilisation when u ask me how rainfall was here and thankyou for the Congrats for being a Mod and asked u how rainfall was that way? U have had a preety good year yes? And then asked you hows school going got exams? That was preety much it mate

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  norfolk on Sun Nov 08, 2009 6:12 pm

John, that's sorta my point, sea breeze doesnt do as much cause the bay is much warmer now.

oh and John, 244mm out this way.....so even worse here!

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Sun Nov 08, 2009 6:19 pm

No probs mate. Wink

Thats no good re your rainfall. I wonder why it hasn't rained so much there? The NW shadow affect? But it seems even in good widespread rain events you miss out. Could it be an urban affect? Rainfall here has been really good, October was okay and YTD would be somewhere in the 800mm range, just haven't added it up yet. I am a bit lazy for rainfall figures. hehe. Yeah got a few tests coming up, maths, physics/chemistry and biology. Not looking forward to them, but hey, I'll be right! Good to hear from you mate. Keep in touch, and happy birthday for the big day soon mate! cheers bom

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Nov 08, 2009 7:52 pm

It's times like this that I have to count myself lucky to live where I do. 16.7C here currently, 10C cooler than Melbourne and 5C cooler than Dunns Hill even. In fact only a few degrees warmer than Mount Buller here atm. Got to 30C today and 28C yesterday. Certainly not ideal temperatures for early November particularly when they are accompanied by no rain, but at least it has remained fairly humid and definitely better than mid 30s like Melbourne and many parts of the state have been experiencing. Also had overnight lows of 12C and 10C the past couple of nights so overall it has been bearable here with only a few hours a day actually feeling hot.

Of course next weekend looks really nasty before the decent change comes through. Until then though Tuesday through to Friday looks interesting. We seem to be set for light southerlies over this period. It's not enough to flush out any of the heat over the state at 850hpa level but in terms of surface temperatures it definitely should have an effect with the southern half of VIC a little cooler and possibly much cooler right on the coast and bay side. Also the distinct possibility of sea breeze fronts setting up over the ranges in the late afternoons and evenings which will provide a trigger and focus for storms from Tuesday onwards once we get instability rising to significant levels. On days like today, massive upper high with no sea breeze effect or only a very weak one, even if it was significantly unstable there would be no trigger for storms to develop and they probably wouldn't. Could be a bit of a surprise this week.

Aside from that we are facing yet another extraordinary period of prolonged heat which will smash all records (March 2008 memories coming back with a vengeance😢 ). November 1982 seems to be the last time this happened at this time of year but this time looks somewhat more severe and prolonged. Almost 100% to do with the subtropical ridge inexplicably diving south allowing inland desert heat to be relocated further south over the temperate regions where it's not supposed to be for extended periods at this time of year. Of course the westerlies also dive way south towards Antarctica so no chance of being influenced by them at all, just one high centre after another embedded in the ridge more typical of Alice Springs climate than here. Rolling Eyes

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Re: Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

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