Has it happend before?

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Re: Has it happend before?

Post  windyrob on Wed Nov 11, 2009 4:04 pm

hillybilly wrote:

Windyrob. I'll put forwards three simply observations which dispute the observation that the holocene period was that warm. There are numerous others, but lets keep it simple.

Firstly the ice in Greenland's margins largely dates back (about) 100K years. If it was really so hot 5000 years ago this ice should have melted as it did during the last interglacial 125K years ago and is now melting. Similar comments go for the large mountain glaciers in places like the Andes, east Africa, New Zealand, Eurpoean Alps. The ice which is melting now is widely older than 5,000 years. How could it have survived a hotter period 5000 years ago but be melting now?

Further - if it was so warm sea level should have been globally much higher back then - at lest 2 metres. Roman fish baths (for example) do not show elevated sea level at the time.

Finally what is the mechanism that could have driven such warmth. CO2 was lower at the time and we know that the Milanokvic peak cycle was not nearly as strong as that which occured 130K years ago. The calculations of insolation are straight-forward - they need only a knowledge of the orbital parameters of the earth/sun which are well known.

Finally, one thing that is ignored is the rate of change. Under global warming much of the drying of the subtropics relates not to the fact that it gets hotter but the fact that the land warms up much quicker than the oceans. This increases the temperature gradients south of Australian strengthening the polar front and dragging the lows and fronts south - exactly as we are seeing . It is not simply that it is now hotter, but that it is getting hotter quickly.
Crikey DJ, taking on the holocene optimum Shocked
So lets start with ice caps
How did they survive conditions warmer than today, simple, they didn't melt! Except for the northern most ice cap in greenland that only reformed in the last 4000 years (325m deep worth). glacial reconstructions of the alps also show that during the roman times there was much less ice than there is today! So many more glaciers exist today than during the interglacial maximum.
Now to proxies, to quote from the wiki "Of 140 sites across the western Arctic, there is clear evidence for warmer-than-present conditions at 120 sites. At 16 sites where quantitative estimates have been obtained, local HTM temperatures were on average 1.6±0.8 °C higher than present." There is also clear evidence of warmer temp in high latitudes in the southern hemisphere although the peak occurred earlier. In the lower latitudes there was less effect. trop ocean temps less than 1degC warmer than today. The current desert belts in africa, australia and central asia were also lush and green. Sea levels are a bit tricky due to tectonic movements and post glacial rebound which is often greater than sea level rises. For instance everest is rising at 60mm/year where as ocean levels have been rising at 2mm/year. The roman culture is in the med sea collision zone and occurred well after the end of the holocene optimum which ended about 2000bc so its a pointless discussing really. I usually agree with those that say sea level peaked at 2m higher than today, about 4000 years ago, although it is controversial.
So what caused the warmth? Not sure why your asking since obviously it was the peak of Milankovich cycle if you agree with that theory.
As to climate change occurring rapidly, you must be kidding! 0.7c in 100 years, with 0.4 of that an "adjustment"! Don't make me post a link the the Bob Carter video! Twisted Evil

Now here is another interesting thing, Mountain ash trees are the perfect example of an organism adapted to regular climate variation. They are sensitive to fire, so only live in high rainfall areas that allow them to reach maturity, yet at the same time they need fire to germinate their seeds, so they can only live in areas that dry out occasionally. Their short life span of 400years means means that their habitat must alternate between wet and dry on a fairly frequent time scale.
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Re: Has it happend before?

Post  droughtbreaker on Wed Nov 11, 2009 4:14 pm

That's the key point, that we are seeing the subtropical ridge replace the westerlies here more and more, particularly in the summer half of the year. This is what was widely predicted to happen as a result of global warming in the way that David mentioned in the last post with the temp gradient increasing around southern Aus and to the south. Global warming in itself is not enough to account for massive temperature anomalies but the climate change that it causes is, with desert air transplanted over us for days, even weeks on end where it should not be for more than a few days, especially at this time of year.

For anyone who doesn't know this already, the subtropical ridge is synonymous with desert. Most of the major deserts of the world are situated in the poleward half of the tropics and the subtropical latitudes and it is no coincidence that this is the zone of the globe with a semi permanent high pressure ridge. SE Australia is clearly heading towards desertification and, given that very few of our plant and animal species are adapted to a desert climate they will all die out eventually and we will be left with nothing. A lot of this dying out is actually likely to happen in many of our lifetimes IMO. Sorry to sound alarmist but it is what I am seeing happening and there is nothing we can do about it now.

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Re: Has it happend before?

Post  droughtbreaker on Wed Nov 11, 2009 4:28 pm

windyrob wrote:

Now here is another interesting thing, Mountain ash trees are the perfect example of an organism adapted to regular climate variation. They are sensitive to fire, so only live in high rainfall areas that allow them to reach maturity, yet at the same time they need fire to germinate their seeds, so they can only live in areas that dry out occasionally. Their short life span of 400years means means that their habitat must alternate between wet and dry on a fairly frequent time scale.

400 years is a very long lifespan for a tree, Eucalyptus regnans is a species evolved to live a long time in cool, wet and hilly to mountainous environments near the coast and associated with temperate rainforest ecosystems. In these environments, weather conducive to fire doesn't occur every year and is actually quite infrequent. Before Black Saturday the last massive bushfire event to wipe out a large percentage of the mountain ash forests was in 1939, a gap of 70 years and since then the new trees germinated from the fire would be considered young at 70 years old. There have been fairly frequent relatively minor bushfires in mountain ash over the years with a minute fraction of the impact. The summer climate we have been seeing for several years now is basically sufficient to potentially wipe out mountain ash forests every few years IMO from which obviously there is no recovery. These trees are clearly not evolved to endure frequent bushfires but have evolved to reproduce from very infrequent fire events

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Re: Has it happend before?

Post  windyrob on Thu Nov 12, 2009 4:43 am

Two questions DJ,
1/ I'm interested to know if you have learnt about Gibbs free energy principles? From what I can gather they have not been used in developing climate science?
2/ Can you explain the greenhouse effect from first principles? (ie quantum mech upwards)
Cheers
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Re: Has it happend before?

Post  Anthony Violi on Thu Nov 12, 2009 4:31 pm

Gee that ridge must have been a killer in 1961....my Grandad used to tell me about it often..
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Re: Has it happend before?

Post  windyrob on Fri Nov 13, 2009 5:01 am

Unfortunately the info there lacks the critical part in the middle, Quantification of the energy absorption of CO2 from first principals to get to the IPCC forcing equation. Do you have details of the paper for that. The reason I'm asking is because the IPCC claims the amount of forcing (in watts) per doubling is equal to the change in absorbance. However the equation for absorbance clearly states that it is related to energy through a negative log function. Is it possible that someone made a mistake and confused absorption and absorbance? stranger things have happened in science!
The IPCC forcing equation is also not valid over all values of CO2, ie if you put a zero in the denominator to calculate the total CO2 forcing you get an infinite forcing, do you know why this is?
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Re: Has it happend before?

Post  Anthony Violi on Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:19 pm

DJ your science and knowledge can tell you whatever you want...i dont believe in GW. Not even an iota. Yes we had a very long and prolonged drought, yes we have had close to record heat for this time of year..but so did we in 1938, 1961, 1998 and plenty of other years..the fact we had had two weather events deliver 125mm of rain in 24 hours since 2003 suggests to me that there is nothing wrong with our globe, its is going through its natural cycle. If we have have below average rainfall for the next 40 or 50 years then i geuss that means something has changed, until then its the status quo...

And the good news, your totally wrong telling Rob that he is wasting his time about being a sceptic. Since friday, your good mate Andrew Bolt has had 2700 people, me included sign his petition to send to the PM, you know, the dopey blonde haired bloke who wants to give away $7B a year to the UN for something that we dont know for sure is right, to join the group that he says is standing in the way of saving us from GW...believe me this group will be enormous, with numerous Politicians now getting itchy feet and slowly slinking in to the back ground so as to not say something that may not be party line...and the good news is, most of the worlds best scientists, Lord Monckton, Pilmer etc, are joining the list since friday...K Rudd singled out Andrew Bolt, but i think he forgot to realise its all of us who want some answers.

The simple fact that had we dammed the Mitchell as Bolt rightly pointed out many years ago, we would now have 100% storages in the worst drought on record...not bad i would have thought. The rains will return so will the patterns and then the stuff about the ridges being dragged south by GW, yes folks you heard right, will be dispelled IMO.

Anyhow, you have your beliefs and thats fine, but then again most climate analysts are conflicted as they lose their funding if they say we cooled for the last 8 years until this year..
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Re: Has it happend before?

Post  droughtbreaker on Sat Nov 14, 2009 7:13 pm

Can we keep politics out of this by any chance? Rolling Eyes

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Re: Has it happend before?

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sat Nov 14, 2009 11:16 pm

No Andrew I think this is fair game and I'll allow this discussion to be had... And please keep it nice and fair. I feel the political commentary above is in context and can be allowed here but any vitriole or repetative agenda pushing statements to provoke and stab will not be allowed.

I think some valued and valid contributions have been made and I think some questions political, ethical and scientific need to be asked from both fronts.

Play nice...Any issues with this please PM me Smile
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Re: Has it happend before?

Post  Anthony Violi on Sun Nov 15, 2009 4:41 am

Everyone entitled to their opinion folks, i am not one to to try and sway anyone, you guys believe what you want...Andrew when the PM comes out and says we are all putting our kids future at risk, well that's where i draw the line..

My point of view is that our weather has changed, but not permantely. Its always changing, and soon enough, will change again. And will always change as the Earth moves through our galaxy in different ways.

The American physical society has now openly questioning AGW..changing their position to cautious doubt. The temp fluctuations are within the parameters of normal weather changing patterns..

http://www.aps.org/publications/apsnews/200910/climate.cfm
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Re: Has it happend before?

Post  Anthony Violi on Sun Nov 15, 2009 5:49 am

But we cooled for 32 years straight with a massive increase in Co2?? And then the last 8 years as well with an even bigger increase?? And there is still no evidence to suggest Co2 influences temp in any way...

And then i read this morning some loony scientists are suggesting the Arctic Ice will be gone within 10 years???? How do they not be made accountable for such ridiculous statements?

And lastly, if we continue to cool as expected, and the arctic continues to build the ice back as it is now, where do you go from there?
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Re: Has it happend before?

Post  Bobman on Sun Nov 15, 2009 9:10 am

I think there is nothing wrong at all with punishing polluters as it's not only the environment that we are damaging, it's our health and yes, this includes the health of the generations after us.

Why should people continue suffering chronic health problems because some sceptics think pollution is not a bad thing?

Also, the amount of change we've had this year (including breaking many records) is a clear indicator that this is not a normal cycle and we are in for an unknown future in terms or weather, so anything we do to try and alter this is a good thing.

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Re: Has it happend before?

Post  windyrob on Sun Nov 15, 2009 2:26 pm

hillybilly wrote:>However the equation for absorbance clearly states that it is related to energy through a negative log function.

No. Further, the predicted changes in absorption are verified by both surface and satellite data. The associated radiative forcings also match the rate of energy accumulation in the ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere system.
You need to look up the difference between absorbance and absorption DJ!
Absorbance is given by the equation
A=-ln(I/Io), where Io and I are the intensity of light(in watts) before and after. If a gas absorbs 50% of the energy, doubling it halves the probability of transmittance 0.5X0.5=0.25. Double that 0.25 X 0.25 = 0.125. Each doubling absorbs half as much as the previous doubling until it reaches extinction. The IPCC say each doubling produces the same forcing, despite saying that the first 50ppm absorbs most of the energy, which would be impossible since there have been two doublings since then that would have caused the same forcing as the first 50ppm. The only reason for this that i've heard is that the "wings" of the absorption spectrum expand in CO2 concentration dependant manner. However the bandwidth is purely a function temp since it is generated by the doppler effect of molecular motion. It should also be noted that CO2 emits a photon of a longer wavelength than it absorbed, that cannot be absorbed by another CO2 molecule (although it can be absorbed by other gasses).
Of course this doesn't mean the current estimates of forcing are off by much, just that subsequent doublings will be.
Another thing is that the effect of greenhouse gasses should never be described as an independent forcing like they are because they are a function of absorbed short wave. They do not add energy to the system but instead amplify the effect on temp of the absorbed short wave. Any decrease in solar shortwave will cause a corresponding decrease in the greenhouse effect. The maximum effect they can have is to halve the outward flow of energy (100% absorption) thus effectively doubling the effect of shortwave.
The current practice of using black/grey body equations on a system with a non black body emission to space also seems quite inappropriate. The relationship between watts and temp quite clearly breaks down in these situations. For example an incandescent light globe with a black body emission is at a much lower temp with more watts than a non black body fluro globe.

On a side note, at the current rate of ice loss (280km3/year) the greenland ice cap would take 10,000 years to melt. And no, the extra meltwater will not cause the ice to slide into the ocean, because the ice sits in a bowl generated by its own mass.
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Re: Has it happend before?

Post  windyrob on Mon Nov 16, 2009 4:26 pm

The "Enhanced" part would seem to be contradicted by the lack of a upper troposphere hot spot, the lack of warming relative to CO2 forcing, and the following graph (from climate4you) that shows the upper troposphere water vapour clearly decreased when the temp increased. The exact opposite of the enhance greenhouse gas theory but in agreement with free energy principles that for some strange reason seems not to have been applied. (I suspect because they have come principally out of chemical thermodynamics)


On a side note, have you considered the build up of dust prior to deglaciation as having a role in rapid melting events? Could a dirty ice situation cause an albedo reversal on melting?

Anyway shall we go back to the weather now since there looks like something interesting on offer bounce
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Re: Has it happend before?

Post  Anthony Violi on Tue Nov 17, 2009 4:38 pm

Sorry DJ i meant between 1942 and 1974...should have been more specific.

I know your science tells you the evidence is undeniable, and thats your choice. I still dont believe it until i see proof that our weather doesnt cycle...I still think we are in for a average period of both rainfall and temperatures over the next 10 years, but i geuss time will tell and be the proof in the pudding.
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Re: Has it happend before?

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Nov 17, 2009 7:56 pm

I'd say that to have 3 record breaking heatwaves (not just record breaking, record smashing) in the space of 20 months is enough evidence for AGW. How else could this be happening? How could it possibly be natural cycles? What we are seeing currently is vaguely similar to one of those Hollywood disaster movies of recent times that at the time seemed laughably over the top.

If you had told me, even just 5 years ago, that we would see a 48C at Avalon, a massive heatwave in March 2008 with 39C temps for days on end away from the coast and ranges and now the current November heatwave I would have laughed at you, but here we are living the nightmare. It's almost surreal to be even discussing these sort of temperatures yet people just accept it as part of a natural cycle adamant that 'normal' weather will return and this is just a blip that will go away if we can ignore it for long enough. Crying or Very sad

It's really getting quite sad now. Once our lives and the environment are completely destroyed then all of a sudden people will accept the science, that's the tragic irony. Of course scientists throughout history have been ridiculed and persecuted for such discoveries as finding out that the earth is round and revolves around the sun, and that humans evolved from apes. Discoveries that no one wanted to hear because it challenged society's rigid and fundamental life long beliefs about the world. Now it is our safety and stability on this planet that is at risk so, almost understandably, the average person doesn't want to hear about it. I don't begrudge people for that but the sad reality is we won't be able to do anything about it now (anything at all, even just stopping things from getting worse) because of the denial of governments and society in general.

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Re: Has it happend before?

Post  windyrob on Wed Nov 18, 2009 4:56 am

It's quite clear the greenies and carbon traders are having far to much say in this debate! Otherwise the only viable solution, going nuclear, would clearly be the designated solution. until we develop efficient solar to chemical (ie hydrogen) tech then renewables will just be a way of increasing the worlds poverty!
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Re: Has it happend before?

Post  droughtbreaker on Wed Nov 18, 2009 5:13 pm

I just wish people would put their personal egos aside and accept the science as universally agreed upon by the vast majority of the world's climate scientists and environmental scientists. It is pointless who is 'right' about this and much of the debate is a pissing contest about who can prove to be right and therefore more intelligent and worthy human beings. Rolling Eyes

In the meantime our environment continues to deteriorate rapidly as we head towards a third world existence. The joke's on all the skeptics. Wink

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Re: Has it happend before?

Post  Bobman on Thu Nov 19, 2009 7:59 am

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/world-temperatures-to-rise-by-6c-by-end-of-the-century-scientists-say/story-e6frf7jo-1225799613986

THE world is spinning toward a catastrophic worst case climate change scenario with temperatures now certain to rise by 6 degrees by the end of the century.

That's the view of a leading international team of scientists who yesterday predicted the change in climate would now certainly have irreversible consequences rendering large parts of the globe inhabitable.

The scenario was first made public by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007 but then it was made only as a worst case scenario.

But according to Professor Corinne Le Quere from the British Antarctic Survey and East Anglia University, that worst case was now all but inevitable.

"We're at the top of the IPCC scenario," she told Nature Geoscience.

Her study - backed by 31 top researchers from seven countries including Australia involved in the Global Carbon Project - found there had been a 29 per cent rise in global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels between 2000 and 2008, with an annual increase of 3 per cent compared with 1 per cent the previous eight years.

Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.

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She said there was no doubt carbon dioxide emissions from transport and industry and deforestation were squarely to blame for warming the atmosphere which would be 6 per cent higher around the world including near the poles; the EU had hoped to keep the rise to 2 per cent.

Prof Le Quere said next month's UN climate conference in Copenhagen had to come out with a clear and decisive global policy to stabilize temperatures.

"If the agreement is too weak or the commitments not respected, it is not 2.5 degrees or 3 degrees we will get it's 5 degrees or 6 degrees, that is the path we're on," she said.

Scientists have found there was now significant evidence to show for the first time the Earth's natural ability to absorb man-made carbon dioxide released into the air had failed.

Both the US and China, the world's biggest carbon emitters, have pledged to strike an accord for emission-reduction targets for rich nations.

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Re: Has it happend before?

Post  Bobman on Wed Nov 25, 2009 10:34 am

http://www.theage.com.au/environment/warming-diagnosis-beyond-worst-case-20091124-jhco.html

Warming diagnosis: beyond worst case
ADAM MORTON
November 25, 2009

KEY climate change measures are tracking near or beyond worse-case scenarios predicted just two years ago, according to a science update drawing on more than 200 recently published studies.

Co-authored by 26 climate scientists, The Copenhagen Diagnosis reports that melting of summer Arctic sea ice, loss of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and projections of the rise in sea levels have accelerated dramatically since 2007.

It finds the statistical global warming trend has continued over the past decade, contradicting assessments by some scientists - including Copenhagen Climate Council chairman Tim Flannery - that there has been a recent cooling.

The review cites NASA data that shows a trend of a 0.19-degree increase over the past decade despite short-term fluctuations due to El Nino, solar variability and volcanic eruptions.

Matthew England, co-director of the University of NSW Climate Change Research Centre, said the world's three leading climate data series showed claims of temperatures cooling were ''patently untrue''.

''These are the data set even the sceptics go to, and they show that the last 10 years has been one of warming even if you start in [the particularly hot] 1998,'' Professor England said.

''Since 2001, every year has been among the top-10 warmest on record. I don't think that is cooling.''

The diagnosis is billed as a supplement to the 2007 report by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and aimed at influencing debate at next month's Copenhagen climate summit. Most of the scientists behind it are intergovernmental panel authors.

Its major findings include:

■ Greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement production were nearly 40 per cent higher in 2008 than in 1990.

■ Global air temperature, humidity and rainfall patterns cannot be explained without factoring in greenhouse gas emissions.

■ Satellite and ice measurements show the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are increasingly losing mass. Each adds up to 0.7 millimetres a year to sea level rise.

■ The recent rate of summer Arctic see ice melting is unprecedented in at least 2000 years and about 40 per cent greater than average IPCC predictions.

■ Sea-level rise by 2100 is likely to be much greater than the 18-59 centimetres predicted by the UN panel. Failure to cut emissions could lead to a rise of more than a metre. The worse-case scenario is roughly two metres (though unlikely).

■ Localised tipping points, where changes happen abruptly, are possible this century at some sites. But despite talk of ''runaway climate change'', there is no strong evidence that the entire planet is near that threshold.

The report estimates global temperatures could rise by seven degrees by 2100. Emissions would need to peak in the next five to 10 years to limit warming to two degrees.

It comes at a charged time in the climate debate. Emails stolen from a leading climate research centre have prompted claims its scientists tried to massage unfavourable data and destroy scientific material sought under Freedom of Information. Professor England said the scandal was a diversion:

''A few loose email comments by a couple of researchers does not bring down the central science of climate change.''

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Re: Has it happend before?

Post  Anthony Violi on Wed Nov 25, 2009 3:55 pm

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/rorting-data-is-hell-nino/story-e6frfhqf-1225803452749

You would think that, if we had a PM who wasnt a complete buffoon, we would do what America is doing and investigate the email leaks to see what substance they have. But then again, they have to try to recoup the $300 Billion somehow..
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Re: Has it happend before?

Post  Anthony Violi on Thu Nov 26, 2009 1:28 pm

Totally understand DJ..my only concern is Rudds willingness to just jump headlong into this without a second thought..
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Re: Has it happend before?

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sun Nov 29, 2009 8:14 am

What really annoys me and I have seen this over at other weather forums etc, is that we get these radical people on here with no real interest in weather, just climate. And not even climate.

This forum will not tolerate personal attacks, vandettas, agenda bashing etc. This forum was designed to debate the topic and not attack the man.

I am in no way affiliated with the BoM or any other organisation, I am speak for no one but me. But seeing as I have put this place together with a group of enthusiasts to discuss weather and yes climate without the verbal bashings and lashings from the underground right and left parties.

I personally will not tolerate things on this forum being taken out of context for personal gain, people made to stand trial over and over again for they're occupation, and will not tolerate any form of abuse. Go elsewhere to behave that way.

A sad day that even I have to get out of bed and type stuff like this because I am pretty open minded about the whole climate debate, but even I can see where this is going and it is not pretty.
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