Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

A few handy dribbles showing up on the obs with a few places closing in on 5mm. Suspect Ferny Creek is on about 4mm (that would see us crack double digits for the months), and might make 7-8mm before it's done.

Great pick by the EC which had rain developing for us early afternoon, and the best falls in east central areas (which appears to be going to plan).

Might be entirely decadent tonight and put the sprinkler on in the rain (in anticipation of them filling on Sunday ). Can't wait for parts 2 and 3 (and a real shame to see the usual dry spots west/north of Melbourne getting cheated again).

1mm whole mill grand total for the month 3mm

We sitting on a grand total of 1.4mm for the month so far...

EC holds firm, still going hard for Sunday for metro and central regions!!!
Shower activity now stopped, at least the temps are now milder.

2.8mm here only falling on the 1st and the 3rd of the month.

Ended up with 4mm so cracked double digits for the month (10.1mm ). Only really bettered so far by Kanagulk's 7mm. Quite amazing to see the grass respond - it is already looking green out back rather than the sad yellowing of last night. Next 36 hours look fantastic and impressive ageement between EC, GFS and ACCESS which all show typically 25-50mm across central and eastern areas. Looks like the kind of event which should deliver something useful for everyone and with light surface winds and high humidity the Melbourne rainshadow shouldn't be too bad.

Still think about 50mm for Ferny Creek by Monday... 46mm to go.

38C here today windy, followed by a rumble or two of thunder and 1mm of liquified mud that has coated everyones car and the guts of my raingauge. A bit of light rain tried to follow it, but the cicada's beat it away.

Got stuck circling over Lake Eildon for 20minutes on the flight back to Tulla this arvo due to the dust storm. When we headed in, we saw the dust storm and it looked like a classic from the photo archives - the cold front (dyed with the dust) had the classic back-sloped wedge shape that the weather text books show. Bit of turbulence when we went through it (5000 ft) - only minor stuff. The major stuff was on the freeways trying to get back home.

Latest (06z) GFS doesn't back away that's for sure. 50mm here for the weekend and then another 50mm+ for next Thursday/Friday.
Some 'normal' late spring/early summer weather ahead with a mix of rather cold weather and warm weather over the next week with later next week looking like it could be stormy as well.

Got to 37.4c here today, now down to a pleasant 19c. just over 2mm's today taking the monthly total to 6mm's.

Just got back from work experience, this time I did it at 106.3 Mixx FM which is part of the Ace Radio Network. Had an absolute cracker of a week, they even gave me all the weeks mid-dawn shifts and next weeks ones, so its cool hearing myself on the radio that pretty much dominates southwest Victoria. They have also hintedat some part time work in the future and they want me back over the Summer holidays. So cool!

Back to the weather and it generally was a dry week here whilst I was away from the forum. Quite hot and windy both Wednesday and Thursday in Colac where I was staying and interestingly enough the maximum temperature on Thursday was after the wind change, still getting to about 34/5. Today was a lot cooler but still warm to start, got to around 28 I think, and even a bit of rainfall and some distant thunder to our north. At the radio station we were on full alert for the two fires started by lightning near Heywood. That was interesting to cover as well as a truck tip over that killed hundreds of sheep unfortuently, but was interesting how the station went about their emergency broadcasts.

Back to weather again and tomorrow appears to see patchy rain across the state, and if things do clear up it is going to be quite unstable through all of the uppers as well as very moist, so as the next trough comes through if cloud clears, there would be a good chance for thunderstorm activity. Will have to keep an eye on that and GFS is looking wonderful for the weekend, Saturday night till mid afternoon on sunday here, hinting at up to 30mm for my location, and very similar for later next week, though that may be a bit more thundery as you say as well Andrew.

Anyway, not sure if I am going to be here tomorrow, but will be back for sure on Sunday.

fantastic jake, sounds like you had a great time!

Welcome Jake

Looking interesting the next few days indeed with one hell of a cloudband and embedded storms starting to form.
Should be a slow cooker but eventually get there.

US has around 50mm for Melbourne and upwards of 70-80mm in the fringes to the north, east and west. I think EC is of a similar vain with UK. Impressive.

If it comes off it will be one of the more amazing systems.

3.4mm here this afternoon with one flang and 96kmh winds.

Had several cracks of thunder here when the storm hit, but driving home from work at 11pm saw a rogue CC round the dandys which was nice.

Nothing more measurable overnight up here but woke to a few spits and thick fog. Is dead calm and really sticky (T of 15, Td of 15C).

Should see the rain along the river slowly edge south today, but the real action starts during the arvo/evening when the focus for rain north of Adelaide shifts quickly into western Victoria. We should see a rapid reorganisation in the system during the afternoon, which is associated with the second small low digging south and NE upslide developing (the upper trough sharpens up near Mt Gambier as the "front" in the bight closes in).

Totals are a bit tricky - EC has dropped to 20-30mm in central areas, while GFS has gone up to 50mm+. Access is tending to be between the two. Will - no doubt - be a case of watch the radar.

Bit annoying but the system looks to be coming through a bit quicker which which might stop the potential for any really big totals.

Meanwhile some handy falls showing up... best of them below.

Station Sensor Station Rainfall Period Local Quality Basin Catchment State
83084 0 FALLS CREEK AWS 13.4 21.5 Sat 21-11-2009 06:30:00 As Observed KIEWA RIVER KIEWA RIVE VIC
83085 0 MT HOTHAM AWS 12.4 21.5 Sat 21-11-2009 06:30:00 As Observed MITCHELL RIVER (VIC) VIC
83055 0 MT HOTHAM AIRPORT 11.6 21.5 Sat 21-11-2009 06:30:00 As Observed UPPER MURRAY RIVER COBUNGRA R VIC
83024 0 MT BULLER AWS 8.6 21.5 Sat 21-11-2009 06:30:00 As Observed GOULBURN RIVER VIC
83077 1 BALD HILL 8.0 18.8 Sat 21-11-2009 03:48:53 Derived Obs BROKEN RIVER BROKEN RIV VIC
84118 2 WATERFORD FLD 7.8 20.8 Sat 21-11-2009 05:45:00 Derived Obs MITCHELL RIVER (VIC) WONNANGATT VIC
83058 1 UPPER BUCKLAND 7.8 20.8 Sat 21-11-2009 05:48:20 Derived Obs OVENS RIVER BUCKLAND R VIC
82139 0 HUNTERS HILL AWS 7.6 21.5 Sat 21-11-2009 06:30:00 As Observed UPPER MURRAY RIVER VIC
583006 1 D/S BRIDGE CREEK 7.6 20.4 Sat 21-11-2009 05:21:22 Derived Obs BROKEN RIVER BROKEN RIV VIC
84118 1 WATERFORD FLD 7.6 21.4 Sat 21-11-2009 06:22:24 Derived Obs MITCHELL RIVER (VIC) WONNANGATT VIC
83073 2 MOUNT BUFFALO CHALET 7.6 20.8 Sat 21-11-2009 05:50:12 Derived Obs OVENS RIVER OVENS RIVE VIC
83090 0 OMEO 7.4 21.5 Sat 21-11-2009 06:30:00 As Observed UPPER MURRAY RIVER LIVINGSTON VIC
85303 1 REEVES KNOB 7.2 19.1 Sat 21-11-2009 04:05:32 Derived Obs THOMSON RIVER FREESTONE VIC
79097 0 KANAGULK AWS 7.0 21.5 Sat 21-11-2009 06:30:00 As Observed WIMMERA-AVON RIVERS VIC
83000 2 ARCHERTON 7.0 20.1 Sat 21-11-2009 05:08:42 Derived Obs BROKEN RIVER HOLLAND CR VIC
82142 1 MT TABLETOP 7.0 20.5 Sat 21-11-2009 05:28:00 Derived Obs BROKEN RIVER BRIDGE CRE VIC
583004 1 JOKER CREEK 7.0 20.7 Sat 21-11-2009 05:41:24 Derived Obs UPPER MURRAY RIVER BIG RIVER VIC
84016 0 GABO IS 6.6 21.5 Sat 21-11-2009 06:30:00 As Observed EAST GIPPSLAND VIC
583151 1 DOHERTYS 6.6 14.8 Fri 20-11-2009 23:45:00 Derived Obs GOULBURN RIVER GOULBURN R VIC
83074 1 L W HOVELL 6.0 20.8 Sat 21-11-2009 05:47:37 Derived Obs OVENS RIVER KING RIVER VIC
584006 1 SWIFTS CREEK FL 5.8 20.8 Sat 21-11-2009 05:45:00 Derived Obs TAMBO RIVER TAMBO RIVE VIC
584007 1 THE GORGE (GENOA R.) 5.4 20.7 Sat 21-11-2009 05:39:04 Derived Obs EAST GIPPSLAND GENOA RIVE VIC
84144 0 MT NOWA NOWA AWS 5.2 21.5 Sat 21-11-2009 06:30:00 As Observed TAMBO RIVER BOGGY CREE VIC
582000 2 MOORNGAG 5.2 20.7 Sat 21-11-2009 05:43:48 Derived Obs BROKEN RIVER BROKEN RIV VIC
582000 1 MOORNGAG 5.2 20.7 Sat 21-11-2009 05:44:48 Derived Obs BROKEN RIVER BROKEN RIV VIC
82154 1 D/S POLLY MCQUINNS WEIR 5.2 21.0 Sat 21-11-2009 05:57:23 Derived Obs GOULBURN RIVER SEVEN CREE VIC
84128 1 CHANDLERS CK 5.0 20.8 Sat 21-11-2009 05:45:00 Derived Obs EAST GIPPSLAND CANN RIVER VIC

Some usual suspects in that list DJ
Riverina picking up some 5mm falls in the last 1 or 2 which as you say will progress further south.
GFS looking the goods, EC still putting some good falls from 6pm. Still conditions and muggy.

hi dj, in saying that Ukmet has pumped it up for central vic and Melb and has around 50mm so not sure who to believe

Just had a quick squizz at the details in the EC. This bombs a lot just east of Melbourne this evening with the pressure dropping 11hPa in 6 hours. That's about as quick as you'll ever so should throw up some wild weather. The EC shows widespread 25-40mm falls in 6 hours just west of where the low bombs which covers all of central Vic stretching back into the Wimmera. Tops falls look to be around 80mm. UK which tends to be conservative (and IMHO is among the top models) has falls locally to about 70mm near Melbourne.

If these models are anything to go by could well see a flash flood event. But, best not to get too carried away

Very thick fog up here now and spitting a little rain.

Thanks for the update DJ. When do you expect conditions to start deteriorating? 4pm / 6pm / after dark.

Yes, very confusing. Just who do we believe?

-LAPS and MLAPS look like giving us around 25mm

-EC has downgraded a lot to around 25mm now

-GFS has upgraded massively and now wants to give us (central districts) 50-100mm here for the weekend

-UKmet doing the same thing as GFS from what John has told us

It's a really difficult one. I'm inclined to err on the lower side of totals personally so i reckon about 20mm for most in central areas and maybe 30mm+ on the ranges. The system doesn't really look all that incredible to me and we'd need embedded storms to deliver the higher totals given the system will be through by tomorrow afternoon which is not enough time for the totals GFS is suggesting unless there were some torrential downpours in amongst it. Still anything could happen.

I still have the mentality that our systems look great on paper right up to the day but then tend to die out. Just why this happens is often a mystery. The last thundery system we had at the end of October/start of November was a good example. It will be a very nervous wait watching the radar etc. Hopefully though it comes off and we can at least get 20mm or so but we'll see.

13mm to 9.am & still raining. Nice line on Yarra radar,could be a nice wet day.

Cloud is a little higher here this morning so no fog and a bit of weak sunlight filtering through the As. Still very high moisture content in the atmosphere.

Lots of rain just starting to pop up west of the city, I think we will get 30mm overnight into Sunday morning. If there are some embedded storms some areas may see double or even more.

Would love for it just to sit on us and really deepen, then we could get a massive totals upwards of 50mm.

as usual at the moment very dry here. Yesterday arvo we copped about 2 or 3 showers, just enought o settle the dust...literally. Now I am looking at dry conditions, bu at least they are cooler!

Gentle steady rain since 0400 hrs 7.5mm in gauge now. Rain very light at present but much brighter still a lot of fog cloud around.21C.

The ant are moving their larvae upwards like theres no tomorrow here! Wet season anyone