Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Nov 17, 2009 4:25 pm

A few other points to add to that which could greatly increase our chances of excellent rainfall in the coming week at least.

-MJO is now in phase 4 and although weakening likely to continue towards phase 5 in the coming week. The Indian Ocean is much warmer than normal now near to the NW AUS coastline which is helping pump in moisture ahead of the systems.

-SST anomalies are well above average in the bight and locally around the SE thanks mostly to the record breaking heatwave we are experiencing. Warmer oceans lead to a more moisture laden airmass as the air passes across them and over land. This is particularly important to note when the southerly changes come through and we are in a southerly airflow behind a low. Average bay temps are up around 20C now and surely will rise further in response to temps in the high 30s and possibly low 40s on Thursday and hot days tomorrow and Friday also. A warm bay enhances rainfall onshore once the winds turn southerly and could potentially leave us with heavy drizzle after a system has passed through as we sit in a southerly airstream.

IMO all the signs are pretty much positive atm. Don't want to mozz it of course but I can't see one negative atm.

The only negative is that we somehow have to get through Thursday unscathed. It's almost a sick joke. Rolling Eyes

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Anthony Violi on Tue Nov 17, 2009 4:49 pm

EC was always coming into line...im still going for records to be broken, said it 2 weeks ago and will stick to it. Be it rainfall or low temps..cant believe that GASP has been so consistent with this, the only thing it ever does well on is forecasting cut offs it seems. Still dragging very cold air in so mid next week if we could get the right surge from the South could get very chilly as well as wet. Thursday and friday could both be hot but we have to wait and see where the cloud band is, i like friday afternoon for a massive storm event because moisture likely to be higher...
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  DC449 on Tue Nov 17, 2009 5:16 pm

Is this gonna be more of an rain event or a storm event?
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Anthony Violi on Tue Nov 17, 2009 5:21 pm

Will depend on moisture profile, and also the fact there is a couple of different systems at play...it may well be both, ie rain band with embedded thunderstorms, as this is quite a dynamic set up..


Last edited by Anthony Violi on Tue Nov 17, 2009 5:24 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Luken on Tue Nov 17, 2009 5:21 pm

DC449 wrote:Is this gonna be more of an rain event or a storm event?

With the amount of energy available and the drop in tempo would have to make it great for Storms at least initially, but then rain periods to follow.

66mm forcast here for Saturday! Believe it when I see it, but land of drought and flooding rains and all that....
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Nov 17, 2009 5:34 pm

Storms Friday night, more rain than storms Saturday but definitely embedded storms in amongst it.

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Tue Nov 17, 2009 6:24 pm

DC449 wrote:Is this gonna be more of an rain event or a storm event?

I suspect most of the rain will be post frontal associated with the very sharp barocline/temperature gradient. This barocline takes a long time to pass over us so we experience a prolonged period of rain. Of course could see embed storms.

Of course - this is just a model scenario.

BTW Thursday looks to me like it might be like the 29.9C back in early September (though 10C hotter) - early cloud and the odd shower/storm but nothing really registering. Once the cloud breaks the temperatures could go through the roof. The airmass (using the conventional +17C rule) should see 40 to 42C across Melbourne. Question is - does something stop it getting there.... Cloud? Too much easterly? etc.

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  floydlove on Tue Nov 17, 2009 7:02 pm

I'm excited. Wink Just not about the heat, Thursday looks nasty but starts to look good after that. I have nothing more to add, I think you guys have touched every point haha. John, you're getting good with picking these events/pattern changes; though not there yet.

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Nov 17, 2009 7:08 pm

Depends on how much the northerly mixes down once the cloud breaks up.

Could be a shocker for fires with dry lightning as DJ states and quite a fresh to strong N wind. Nasty conditions so that rainfall is very much needed and all 50mm is required!!!
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  DC449 on Tue Nov 17, 2009 7:22 pm

Okay cheers guys....
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Nov 17, 2009 7:35 pm

Thursday is becoming a bit of a disaster now (if it wasn't already). GFS in the 06z run now has mid 20s 850T for inland parts of the south and 24C for Melbourne. It seems to be increasing the heat every run. It is possible Melbourne could get to around 42C now. Mildura still looking like a 44C day is on the cards.

I'm not confident we will see that much cloud around on Thursday really. It almost nullifies the rain following it if this comes off which is looking increasingly likely. A 39C or 40C day in Melbourne is barely manageable, 42C though is downright catastrophic for this time of year. The same anomaly in mid summer would see a 47C or 48C day in Melbourne and a possible 50C in places like Avalon etc in a NW. This is the situation we find ourselves in now with our climate and in the same year as Black Saturday. affraid

If heat waves of this intensity become a regular feature of our climate over coming years (which seems to be the way we're heading) then we will be struggling to function as a society in 20 years or so and the environment will be in ruins. Sorry, it is alarmist I know, but I have to say it because I truly believe this is what will happen. (I wonder if NZ will take climate refugees).

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Nov 17, 2009 8:09 pm

It is a little alarming however comes down to the mixing down of the northerly winds and how much cloud there will be. Been lots of occasions where we have been saved from 40C days.

Southerly winds dropping off now...enjoy the last cool night because you can add 10C to this tomorrow!!!
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Nov 18, 2009 5:11 am

Looking reasonable for 30-50mm this weekend still so nothing to sneeze at.

The low pressure for next week seems to have gone so you can't have it all Sad
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Wed Nov 18, 2009 6:22 am

Latest EC is still holding (about) 50mm for most of central and eastern Vic. The ensemble is very similar which suggests high confidence in the forecast. The ensemble also bring the rain in earlier on Friday which suggests that we might get rain earlier on Friday than the current model runs suggest.

BTW I wouldn't be surprised to see the second system next week reappear (though the current EC isn't to bad as the upper low essentially rotates counter clockwise through northern Australia and comes back down into the southeast late next week for a second burst of thundery rain. OK it's a long way out but is hopeful.

Nice and foggy in the Dandenongs this morning, so OK moisture ATM.

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Stratospear on Wed Nov 18, 2009 6:54 am

The fog has well and truly lifted here and it's already warming up...

18Z GFS run aligning with EC now. Widespread 25-50mm over most of Vic, with the central ranges likely to do particularly well. One interesting aspect of the coming few days is what may occur in NW NSW near Bourke.... I'd be looking for higher ground pretty soon if i was in that region.

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Nov 18, 2009 7:43 am

I suspect that area of rain may head SE as the upper highs funnel favourable winds to direct it toward us. I think this may occur in a weeks time. Even if we went into a lesser intense sequence like an easterly dip, moisture will be ample for further showers and storms.

Slow warming trend today but watch that NW corner this evening for local thunder.
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  James on Wed Nov 18, 2009 8:51 am

well, the cicadas are out in full force ....absolutely deafening! - usually they only start up at dusk but are screaming away at the moment and even inside with all doors shut the noise is painful!

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Nov 18, 2009 9:54 am

Yes they are here too and they usually are out in force when there is some rainfall coming. Hmmmm!!!

First cloudband working it's way into the west but nothing much in it. Could see some isolated convection later as temps go into the 40s over the north.

The real burst of cold air moving into SW WA.
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Johnno on Wed Nov 18, 2009 11:31 am

Latest Laps has 30-40mm across Central Victoria and Melbourne Saturday a good base to work with

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Wed Nov 18, 2009 12:26 pm

What does the future hold.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/latest/6484554/catastrophic-bushfire-warning-prompts-evacuations/
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Anthony Violi on Wed Nov 18, 2009 2:53 pm

JMA is all over this one too in a big way...Saturday looks good at this stage, im hoping we dont get disappointed again as the set up looks fantastic for us. JMA now has above 50mm for much of Vic, and latest GFS also gives us a hiding Sat into Sunday... GASP still very consistent, i dont know i i am even mentioning it but its been on to this from the get go..

As for the heat tomorrow i wouldnt worry too much if you live close to the coast from Melbourne Westwards...change might be here earlier rather than later...however if something was to develop on the wind change then that changes everything...
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  droughtbreaker on Wed Nov 18, 2009 4:45 pm

7.6C this morning with fog patches. Enjoyed every minute of it I'll tell you that. Smile Looks like we topped out at around 30C here today which is just par for course for this ridiculous heatwave. Doesn't even feel particularly hot to me now. I've become so acclimatised to tropical desert like climate it hardly registers. You just sweat a bit that's all.

Heat doesn't look quite as severe in the latest model runs with the hottest air appearing to hold off until overnight. Should still get close to 40C in Melbourne, but with humidity staying reasonable tomorrow there could be middle level cloud and convective buildups that may stop the temp in the high 30s. Still the potential though for the November record to fall tomorrow.

Weekend is holding, starting late Friday, all models seem to be right on to it. around 60mm here for the weekend going by GFS, 40mm going by EC and LAPS and from what others are saying JMA going for something similar. We're talking just 2 to 3 days out now, surely it will hold, (although wouldn't put it beyond our climate now to give us nothing)

Rolling Eyes

BTW, Westmere in the western district had a temp range from 5.2C to 34C today. is this some sort of a record? At least for November? (We're talking a desert like diurnal range there)

....also, GFS has a low back in some form by the end of next week which is good to see.

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Thu Nov 19, 2009 4:05 am

Good to see EC still looks good for the weekend, and GASP is back on board (which means the next LAPS will also be wetter). GFS looks good, but just slows everything down - it has a tendency to do loopie things so I would rather stick with the EC. ACCESS also has solid falls for Vic (typically 10 to 40mm for the weekend).

Looks like rain will also start earlier tomorrow with moderate falls developing by evening. Expect about 30mm for Ferny Creek at this stage.

If this one doesn't deliver Victoria is buggered as it already looks like mid January our there (flew in from Hobart last night).

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Nov 19, 2009 4:28 am

Yeah it's dried out fast. Even here!! SHOCKING!!!

Chance of a storm today but the risk is low. Depends onhow much mid level moisture develops and how high the temp gets once the shallow wind change passes and mixes out.

Chance we could still go very hot this afternoon if the northerly mixes back in. But low chance.

There seems to be a compromise in the models with the secondary or follow up system coming back and this can sometimes lower rainfall on the first system. I expect 30-50mm still.
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  rikjpool on Thu Nov 19, 2009 4:50 am

Alot of rasied dust in the air this morning. Blood run sunrise here.

Sitting on 25.7C's atm. About to go and unload a 6ton truck in a big shed before it gets too hot... hopefully...
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

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