Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Thu Nov 19, 2009 4:56 am

BTW just had a look at NOGAPS and UK. They are both showing great falls for the southeast - certainly very widespread 20mm+ falls with local heavy totals in the 50-100mm range.

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Nov 19, 2009 5:13 am

With the complex slowing down - I suspect rainfall to be upgraded probably last minute. UK and NOGAPS been bullish in progging rainfall so could be a good sign.
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Mantis on Thu Nov 19, 2009 11:13 am

As we get close to these events lately they just fade away. Why should this one be different.
Dont think the farmers want it now anyway

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Nov 19, 2009 11:25 am

10-20mm over the west is likely but the heavier falls look confined to the NW.
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Nov 19, 2009 11:31 am

Latest LAPS is bringing the rain more into VIC and has a small low to the east of Melborne early Sunday. Don't know if it's the likely outcome but it's doing two things..

1. Slowing the complex down.
2. Bringing the rain south.
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Sniper on Thu Nov 19, 2009 11:37 am

No wonder EC was ramping up late Sat, early Sunday rainfall progs.

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Stratospear on Thu Nov 19, 2009 12:13 pm

Moisture infeed from NW is starting to show up on satpic, but cold front looks to be holding back in WA...

It's 46 or so in Ceduna right now, so if heat hangs around as cold uppers arrive... I can image some pretty violent uplift/convection will be on the menu over the next few days. LI is hitting -4 NW of Melbourne for Sat arvo.

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Nov 19, 2009 12:16 pm

So we are seeing now some trends towards the system splitting and then being forced down in a NW flow ahead of a cold front. This still has potential to be reasonable but nothing amazing. This is based on latest UK and MLAPS. So this means tomorrow could be very hot indeed.

Maybe haven't escaped the extreme heat. See what US holds.
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Nov 19, 2009 12:38 pm

Just saw latest US and it holds with 25-50mm through a good portion of the state with local heavy falls of 50mm+.
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Lily on Thu Nov 19, 2009 2:07 pm

I'm off to Launceston tomorrow evening for a girly night away ( cheers ) & coming back Saturday evening, please tell me there won't be thunderstorms around 6pm tomorrow night. I can't stand sitting on a tarmac waiting, waiting, waiting...

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Rhino on Thu Nov 19, 2009 2:21 pm

Yeah Karl GFS does look nice, would expect around 15-20mm here, although won't do a hell of alot of good now. But any rains good rain. Very Happy
BOM have slowed the rain down now with Sat and at least the first half of Sun going to be wet.

Rhino. Smile Smile

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  typhoon29 on Thu Nov 19, 2009 2:27 pm

is the weatherzone's lightning tracker down??
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  rikjpool on Thu Nov 19, 2009 3:11 pm

I was thinking exactly the same thing.. It would extremely unusual if their was not one bolt of lightning around all day today with all this going on...
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Thu Nov 19, 2009 3:22 pm

Latest EC is in and shows an upgrade in rainfall totals (more than 50mm across many areas including Melbourne). This could be the biggest event for the year Very Happy Almost feel confident enough to use all my tank water on the garden (tanks down to half empty Sad ).

Also, not a single hot day in the outlook (though is some warm ones) and the prospects for some good follow-up later in the week.

Tomorrow looks good to me for a few showers and the chance of a storm in the arvo. Not a lot but still more than we've had in nearly 3 weeks or nothin.

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Mosaic on Thu Nov 19, 2009 3:22 pm

Yeah, it is broken. The following is the link from where they get their data I believe. Plenty of activity in SA.
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Mosaic on Thu Nov 19, 2009 3:23 pm

Ooops ....forgot the link... http://www.gpats.com.au/php/repository/SA.html
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Nov 19, 2009 4:01 pm

I think what is strange is that we have a chance of average rainfall coming from two systems combined (still theory;)) and one of the hottest Novembers on record!! This weather is strange. Nice interview on TT DJ.

I am not so confident in the shower and thunderstorm development tomorrow. I know EC has 1mm for us (similar totals end of Oct were progged and we ended up with 38mm in twenty minutes) but these situations are rather unpredictable.

Showers and storms tending to rain on Saturday from the west but this will be a slow process so any accumulations from thunderstorms through C areas on Saturday could be quite useful and up to 30mm ahead of the 20-50mm fall coming Sunday.

A stunning break coming. And another thundery change with some magnitude appearing later next week which could be of a similar total rainwise with moisture being stored in N SA and NSW through the early part of next week. Those fine days mid week may not be so fine over northern and eastern areas. So a few events to watch in the coming week.
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  AUS_Twisted on Thu Nov 19, 2009 4:06 pm

Thanks for the website Mosaic

Vic 24 hours - http://www.gpats.com.au/php/repository/VIC.html

Australia 15 min updates - http://www.gpats.com.au/php/cust-cgi/LIAS_free_15m.php
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Anthony Violi on Thu Nov 19, 2009 4:10 pm

Yes, its time to cash in the chips...

Moisture been over the continent for the best part of a month, SSTs are 2 to 4 degress above average almost all over the whole coast bar the NE...monster cold pool mixing in with the hot humid air...its now time to see what she can really do.

Some amazing numbers coming out of EC...and JMA is going for some record breaking stuff, particularly over SA and NW Vic..latest run shows flood potential..NOGAPS seems to just put the upslide to our East enough to be out of reach, GFS still going ok for a good dump too..havent checked out the others but will do that shortly.
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  droughtbreaker on Thu Nov 19, 2009 4:32 pm

Both models have delayed the main rain until overnight Saturday into Sunday now but GFS still has around 40mm (guessing) for here and EC has 60mm.

GFS is looking good for tomorrow with up to 10mm on the ranges, I reckon it should be fairly thundery with very hot and humid air and another trough comign through, much stronger than today's. I find the models are very poor with predicting convective rainfall so anything could happen Friday and Saturday. Saturday in particular looks stormy before the main area of rain so I'd say storms tending to rain overnight for Sat.

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Johnno on Thu Nov 19, 2009 4:33 pm

Amazing still theory but amazing.. most models now develop a low East of us Sunday morning in response to the cold air and perhaps very warm ssts off the SE coast of Australia.

Laps: Now pushes the rain further South

Ec: Great falls Most of the state

Nogaps: Best falls north and east. useful falls Melbourne

JMA and Gfs: Good falls statewide best falls ranges and the west

UK: Good falls statewide.

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Anthony Violi on Thu Nov 19, 2009 4:46 pm

I still like the main models...only NOGAPS has wavered a little tonight and places it a bit far East..

Just cant get over JMA, GASP (which i always disregard for accuracy), EC, GFS and UK all aligned and bringing us a thumping event.

Tomorrow is intesting, i have a feeling that the mid levels will be unstable enough tomorrow to see some showers and thunderstorms form, regardless of when the wind change comes through. Definitely looks to be another mid level episode tomorrow, followed by a classical thundery rain event sat/sun.
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Anthony Violi on Thu Nov 19, 2009 5:07 pm

Also just noticed some nice cold air over Sw Wa atm...most stations South of Perth are sitting in the low teens and are progged to be only mid to high teens tomorrow...the very sharp contrast between the 2 airtmasses is amazing. Moving very slowly too so will work its way over mid weekend and hopefully deliver.
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  The Watto on Thu Nov 19, 2009 5:26 pm

It appears that this Forum is generally geared towards rain events and a bit biased in that respect. Before you shoot me down regarding that comment, You must admit that 80-90 percent of you are only interested in storms and rain and work everything to your liking. Nothing wrong with wanting good rain in the current envirinment but there is also nothing wrong with likeing hot sunny weather which we have experienced over the last couple of weeks. IMO there should be a bit of balance between types of weather and peoples opinions. But each to their own, I just wanted to give an honest opinion.

With regards to the upcoming event I sincerly hope there is not a lot of disappointed people if it fizzles out to be now more than 10-15mm. The weather is changing dramatically in SE Australia and looks like its going to be more dry and hot here unfortunatly. Plus there is an El Nino kicking off and there has been mutliple occasions when this type of pattern has ended in nothing.

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Posts referring to this statement can be found in GW in a thread if needing to discuss this. Please create a thread if you think it necessary. I would like to keep this thread dedicated to the weather approaching thanks Smile


Last edited by Karl Lijnders on Thu Nov 19, 2009 7:17 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Condtions applying to the first paragraph :))

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Anthony Violi on Thu Nov 19, 2009 5:45 pm

Watto what the hell are you on about?? People like what they like, and as you say most people i know can think of nothing worse than staring at blue skys all day.

I detest the heat, love winter. What did you expect..weather freaks to like warm weatherless skies?

And the weather is doing what it is doing, and always has.
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

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